SWIO: BENILDE - Severe Tropical Storm

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:49 pm

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WTXS32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BENILDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 77.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 77.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.2S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.6S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.4S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.4S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 77.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BENILDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS SYMMETRIC SPIRAL BANDING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 301517Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
SPIRAL BANDING ENCOMPASSING THE MAJORITY OF THE LLCC WITH A SMALL
BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TC 04S SEEMS VERY CLOSE TO
FORMING A SUSTAINED EYE-FEATURE AS INTENSITIES HAVE SHARPLY
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AS THERE IS STILL
CIRRUS CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS COVERING THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65-77 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, FMEE, AND FIMP, ALONG WITH A
SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC BENILDE IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, RECENT
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
POLEWARD TAP INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24 IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. FROM THE CURRENT TIME OUT TO TAU 48, TC
BENILDE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES ENHANCED BY THE
PROPAGATING TROUGH. TC 04S SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY SPIN-
DOWN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND BEGIN TO VEER ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK AS A SECONDARY RIDGE BEHIND THE TROUGH ASSUMES THE STEERING
FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 36.
FROM TAU 48 ONWARDS THERE IS DISCREPANCY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
SUBSTANTIAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVEST AREA (98S). MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PORTRAYING SOME KIND OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT TO TAU 36. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FAVORS A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. TRACK SPEEDS ARE ALSO
FASTER DURING THIS TIME TO OFFSET THE RE-CURVING SCENARIOS DEPICTED
BY THE EGRR AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z AND 312100Z.//
NNNN
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#22 Postby Chacor » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:44 pm

Up to 70 kts and upgraded to a cyclone tropical now by MF. Forecast peak is a 100kt cyclone tropical intense.
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#23 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:45 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 DEC 2011 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 14:31:04 S Lon : 76:58:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.0mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.7 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : -4.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.6 degrees
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:46 pm

Looks like RI'ing is underway. Probably quite a strong storm.
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#25 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:47 pm

31/0000 UTC 14.3S 77.2E T5.0/5.0 BENILDE -- Southwest Indian

Based on all the data, I would put it at 95 kt right now (1-min), might be a bit low.
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 30, 2011 11:02 pm

Image

Latest visible
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 30, 2011 11:14 pm

Image

latest microwave
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:20 am

Image

continues to intensify
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#29 Postby hurricane25 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:45 am

I agree that it's a borderline cat3 cyclone :wink: This could jump 10-15 knots once that "red" shaded convection wraps all the way around the eye. So this should be a very good looking cyclone if it keeps organizing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat3.html
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Re: SWIO: BENILDE - Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby Crostorm » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:15 am

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Re: SWIO: BENILDE - Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby Chickenzilla » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:43 am

Eyewall still isn't closed completely so I agree with JTWC's intensity :darrow:
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#32 Postby Chacor » Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:21 am

06z: JTWC 90kt, MF: 75 kt
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Re: SWIO: BENILDE - Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby hurricane25 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:36 am

Chickenzilla wrote:Eyewall still isn't closed completely so I agree with JTWC's intensity :darrow:
http://img846.imageshack.us/img846/8264/tcbenildesio2011mwave.jpg



Sure looks to me like some northeasterly shear has gotten to the core. Capable to that of the southwesterly shear that got to the core of Irene in the Atlantic this year. We will just have to see how thing evolve with this system as internal eyewall developments can have huge forecast suprises for the future of this cyclone strength wise.

Of course there was a Eastern Pacific system this season that want through the same, but popped back stronger then ever, once its anticyclone recentered over the core of the system forcing the shear away from the "core" into a favorable outflow pattern...Notable systems Katia 2011, Bertha 2008, Ophila 2011 that had to deal with a misplaced anticyclone.

Yes for now it looks like it has peaked, which was near 100 knots. Now about 85-90 knots.
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 31, 2011 2:09 pm

Image

Latest microwave
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Re: SWIO: BENILDE - Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby hurricane25 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:36 pm

Well, let me show you how the anticyclone is causing the shear over the northeastern quad. Look at the red arrow cutting across the core of the cyclone, but if the anticyclone moved just a little southeast you can see how the cyclone would be within a very favorable upper level environment. See the outflow jet over the southern, southeastern quad moving "air"/convection away from the cyclone.

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/515/wm5wvir.gif/
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#36 Postby Grifforzer » Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:20 pm

At 22:00 PM RET, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 16.0S 75.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S.0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 160-180 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 17.0S 75.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 17.9S 74.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.4S 74.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6E 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

For the last 6 hours, system intensity is stationary. Present intensity analysis at 80 kt is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 5.1 for a 3 hours and 6 hours average. Since 1400 PM UTC, ADT is between 5.1 and 5.5. A mid level ridge, located to the east of the system, is steering the system on a south-westward then south-southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, Benilde should not have the time to move out of the tropical area in this weakness. All available guidance suggest that the meridian track should stop between monday morning and tuesday morning as a low to mid-level ridge should build from the southwest.

It remains some uncertainty about the exact track of the system at this time range of the forecast track, but latest numerical outputs depict a slower motion and a westward to north-westward recurvature. The official current track forecast reflects this scenario. Environmental conditions are good with a weak north-easterly windshear (10 kt according shear CIMSS analysis), excellent divergence aloft depicted by a very well cirrus outflow and warm sea surface temperatures in the 28C range. On its meridian track, Benilde should gradually encounter cooler sst and stronger westerly windshear. After a maximum that should be reached within the next 24 hours, system intensity should weaken.
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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:45 pm

Probably peaked at about 105 kt before weakening.
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#38 Postby senorpepr » Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:31 am

WTIO20 FMEE 011218
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/01/2012
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 01/01/2012 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (BENILDE) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 74.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,EXTENDING
UP TO 90 IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CERCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP T0 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/01/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.6 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2012/01/02 AT 12 UTC:
19.4 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL=
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Re: SWIO: BENILDE - Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:18 pm

ZCZC 174
WTIO30 FMEE 011826
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (BENILDE)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 74.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :59 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/02 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/02 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/03 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/03 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/04 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/04 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/05 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/01/06 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T= 4.0+ AND CI= 4.0+
LATEST MW IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 13Z AND 1452Z) SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED. ON IR IMA
GERY, THE EYE PATTERN, STILL PRESENT AT 12Z, HAS DETERIORATED AND IS SHIFTING TOWARDS AN EMBEDDED
CENTER PATTERN. 6 HOURS AVERAGE MANUAL TNUM IS AT 4.2 ON LINE WITH AN ADT TNUM ESTIMATE OF 4.1 AT
1730Z BUT LOWER THAN THE ESTIMATION AT 5.0 OF PGTW. CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS AND THE MW DATA, THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
COMPARISON OF MW FIX AND CLASSICAL IMAGERY FIX REVEALS A TILT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OF THE VERTICA
L STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMSS TC SHEAR ANALYSIS THAT INDICATE AN
UPWARDS TREND OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FROM 12 KT TO 17 KT. CONSEQUENTLY, TH
E INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BENILDE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUT
HWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
BEYOND, SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SOUTHWESTWARD REBUILDING LOW-MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. NWP MODEL
S DIVERGE ABOUT THE SPEED OF THE WESTWARDS MOTION AFTERTHAT, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPIC
AL RIDGE, DEPENDING OF THE EFFECT OF THE RIGDE OVER MASCAREIGNES, AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENTS MODELS.
HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED THAT SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS BY ENCOUNTERING COOLER SST AND A STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
NNNN


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#40 Postby Chickenzilla » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:32 pm

Am I crazy or a disorganized clouds area's upper anticyclone is shearing Benilde?
Image
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