ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Exactly. Not trying to start a model war because its not worth it but have to disagree with the above statements. The GFS was horrible with Lee. Loops and stalling along the LA coast for alomst an entire week etc etc. How many runs did it show Irene getting into the gulf and impacting anywhere from Houston to the big bend of Florida. Will take the euro til it proves otherwise.

[South Texas Storms]

runs are 1:00 am CST....if it flops the way the GFS shows then I might have no choice but to follow it....it is pretty good in the short range....

Thanks, Rock. I'm sure you'll probably stay up for it, but I'll most probably have to wait 'til I wake up around 6'ish...

yeah, I might turn in early...I am sure that STS will be up for it...

Haha Rock I'm not staying up for the Euro tonight. Got class at 8am tomorrow morning. Now if tomorrows 12z Euro shows it hitting TX, then I may stay up for it tomorrow night.

[maxintensity]

IMO the credibility of the Euro is on the line after the debacle that model had with Lee and Katia. It deserves the benefit of the doubt but this is the last time. We'll need to start looking at the Euro in a different light if it blows this forecast.

Actually I though the Euro did good with both Irene and Lee... have not been paying attention to Katia since it really should not affect the US...

Exactly. Not trying to start a model war because its not worth it but have to disagree with the above statements. The GFS was horrible with Lee. Loops and stalling along the LA coast for alomst an entire week etc etc. How many runs did it show Irene getting into the gulf and impacting anywhere from Houston to the big bend of Florida. Will take the euro til it proves otherwise.

So the Euro shows 930mb Lee smashing into New Orleans, LA after looping around the gulf for 10 days...Katia brushing the outer banks of NC as a major hurricane...and it outperformed GFS which showed Lee into LA as a weak tropical storm and Katia well out to sea, never ever threatening the USA? And yes, euro showed Irene into FL as well.

[caneman]

Euro did a horrible job with Lee. Initially had it going into Mexico /So. Texas. Did a Great job last year but average at best this year. Flame away if you like but the truth is the truth. Always best to consider a few of the top models. Speaking of models. What the heck is up with GFDL? Use to be one of my faves.... GFS seems to be doing a good job this year.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, the Euro did not perform well with either system. The GFS was ahead of the Euro on Lee for sure.

[Dean4Storms]

Actually the GFS was very consistent on Lee into LA as a TS.

So far both are consistent with 96L in their varying solution. Will need to give it another day of runs to see which gives in.

I'd have to say the Euro makes better sense with the trough centered over IL tugging this Low northward. Just don't see a TC in the BOC missing the weakness and sitting down there for a week as the GFS depicts. But we'll see!

[weatherSnoop]

Question...If a model's first run turns out to be what actually happened, is that good even if it changed and was wrong for the 5-7 days in between? Just curious about how the pro's see it and what other enthusiasts feel.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not talking intensity just overall track. GFS was just as bad as euro for Lee. Like I said it had Lee moving back offshore, doing loops, and inching across the south LA coast going towards Mobile/Pensacola for another landfall. None of that happened. The GFS had Lee onshore or just offshore moving east across south LA for 5 days.

[Dean4Storms]

Question...If a model's first run turns out to be what actually happened, is that good even if it changed and was wrong for the 5-7 days in between? Just curious about how the pro's see it and what other enthusiasts feel.

I don't feel so, you need consistency in order to give the model credence and then consensus with the other models to form a forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

Not talking intensity just overall track. GFS was just as bad as euro for Lee. Like I said it had Lee moving back offshore, doing loops, and inching across the south LA coast going towards Mobile/Pensacola for another landfall. None of that happened.

The Euro showed the same thing on a run or two. But the early runs before Lee even formed the GFS had it toward LA and the Euro toward MX.

[weatherSnoop]

Question...If a model's first run turns out to be what actually happened, is that good even if it changed and was wrong for the 5-7 days in between? Just curious about how the pro's see it and what other enthusiasts feel.

I don't feel so, you need consistency in order to give the model credence and then consensus with the other models to form a forecast.

Thanks for the response Dean4, you share my thoughts. I am befuddled when people say "model X nailed it 10 days out", all the while running the left-right peripheries for the next 8.

[Dean4Storms]

You're welcome WeatherSnoop!!

Let me say that I'm not beating up on the Euro, it just did not perform well with Lee before it formed. I remember the discussions on it where the NHC and the NWS office in Mobile were all giving the Euro's early depiction more credence than the GFS as nobody thought the trough would dig as much as the GFS was indicating. It is how most in TX got their hopes up so high thinking it might slide NW into NE MX or SE TX as the Euro was showing early on.

[bigdan35]

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http://stormcenter2011.ucoz.com/

[BigA]

GFS ensembles from the 18Z run: totally different from the operational run



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I do not understand why ensembles often all vary so much from the operational. Aren't they like the operational, but with slightly different initial conditions? I would expect some to be quite different, but not all different in one direction.

[Stormcenter]

Sheared (again) system?

Hard to believe this system poses much of a threat to the US given the unseasonably dry and cool air across the entire northern Gulf. Going to be interesting to see what the 00z GFS and Euro show for this system.

[3090]

Safe to say, someone is going to get a storm/hurricane, along the mid Gulf Coast area. Probably, if I had to guess, somewhere from the mouth of the Mississippi river, to the big bend area of Florida. Very early, but this looks like one of those early October setups with a hybrid system. We shall see. Nonetheless, we should stay on our toes; hybrid, or no hybrid.

[Turtle]

Is there a 0% chance of it coming to Texas? I'd rather it go far away (to prevent wind) but rain would be even better.

[South Texas Storms]

Is there a 0% chance of it coming to Texas? I'd rather it go far away (to prevent wind) but rain would be even better.

I feel the same way Turtle. I think the best hope for us (besides it coming here, which I think is very unlikely, but I really hope I'm wrong), is for it to hit in northern Mexico like some models are showing. If this happened, I think some of its moisture could make it up into Texas and hopefully give us a few days of scattered tropical showers.

[South Texas Storms]

0z NAM shows it really starting to get its act together in about 36 hours. It is just sitting in the BOC through 45 hours so far on this run.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Steve H.]

It is still quite steamy and hot here in Florida. Don't know about cool & dry. That is quite unseasonable for the Gulf states this early in September IMO.