ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD: (It was released before the Tropical Weather Outlook)

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS N...AND MONSOONAL FLOW TO ITS S. THIS
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN
80W-86W. CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE
WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO=Up to 70%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

[bg1]

I'm actually excited about this low, seeing as the season is almost over and I wasn't expecting anything else.

Edit: Almost first to post the discussion.

[MWatkins]

Thanks Luis and Jason! Will peek in more than normal after my wife and I go spend the weekend downtown at the Fort Lauderdale art fest.

Considering how busy I get it's hard to post these days, but if/when a system looks to get close to home, I try to get in here as much as I can...

Certainly this system could be a concern as we get into next week, so yep I will be around!

Mike

[wzrgirl1]

Hmmm I really thought this last system would be it for us down here. I guess that is why the season lasts until the end of November.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL has nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[MWatkins]

Not sure the GFS is going to verify. It develops a huge coastal low at the end of next week (in the model) which shoves the tropical cyclone back to the south. I have my doubts about that ever really happening (the sudden coastal storm)

MW

[Typhoon_Willie]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

[Ptarmigan]

Won't surprise me if 96L becomes Rina soon.

[cycloneye]

There is still plenty of untapped waters in the Western Caribbean for the system to grow very strong. It all depends on how the upper enviroment is to allow for it to intensify into a monster or be only a weak sheared storm.

[wxman57]

Still looks quite disorganized this evening - less so than earlier today. Convection associated with the MLC is waning. Don't see too much evidence of any LLC. Without something to focus convection in one area, it'll have to wait until Sunday for development.

[Vortex]

There is still plenty of untapped waters in the Western Caribbean for the system to grow very strong. It all depends on how the upper enviroment is to allow for it to intensify into a monster or be only a weak sheared storm.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1293ca.jpg

Luis,
Some of the guidance takes this storm right over some of the highest if not the highest oceanic heat content in the NW Carribean just south of western Cuba.

[blp]

21/2345 UTC 12.8N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
21/1745 UTC 12.4N 81.0W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic

Southern movement seemed to have stopped earlier this afternoon. Interesting that T numbers have jumped indicating better organization even though it is hard to tell via IR imagery tonight.

[FireRat]

Disorganized at best tonight, looks like this one is listening to the naysayers

Tomorrow and Sunday will be key moments in which the thing comes into CA or goes north. So far, it's hard to tell there's anything via the IR. Let's see if new convection fires east and well offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow. For now, the chances for immediate development have dropped IMO. Not to say it still can't develop, but it should be a few days down the road if so.

[MWatkins]

0Z GFS seems to be a little more realistic...with a cyclone passing over extreme SW Florida and the Keys late next week.

That SE movement issue seems to have gone away...

MW

[fci]

Thanks Luis and Jason! Will peek in more than normal after my wife and I go spend the weekend downtown at the Fort Lauderdale art fest.

Considering how busy I get it's hard to post these days, but if/when a system looks to get close to home, I try to get in here as much as I can...

Certainly this system could be a concern as we get into next week, so yep I will be around!

Mike

Enjoy the festival down in FTL, Mike.
You are getting ideal weather, the kind that the chamber of commerce loves for festivals!!!!
Enjoy..... BUT; we are counting on you to come back to S2K as this system evolves.
This looks to be the last gasp that the season has and it is in the prime location and has all the trappings to be a concern for us down here.
We can at least hope that Lake O gets another good shot of rain and we can continue the trend of filling the lakes and canals before the dry season.
See you HERE after the beautiful weekend!

[fci]

Still looks quite disorganized this evening - less so than earlier today. Convection associated with the MLC is waning. Don't see too much evidence of any LLC. Without something to focus convection in one area, it'll have to wait until Sunday for development.

You still sticking to your earlier thought process that this will go west into CA and that "if" it goes north it will run into a shear machine and be no concern to Florida?

[LarryWx]

Folks,
The just released 0Z Euro has the low degenerate into an open wave by 96 hours E of C.A., which is much different from the 12Z Euro. I beg you not to shoot (or hug) the mesenger. Let's see what future runs do.