ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[tobol.7uno]

Another view of all the models including GFS Ensemble from Google Earth. I think this is a Florida storm! Sorry Texas
I am generally excluding the models that go southwest into the Pacific as I see these solutions very unlikely.

[jeff]

Whatever the track do not bring us any wind in TX. I stopped forecasting rain a month ago...it just is not going to rain...but do NOT let the winds blow. It is like California and the Santa Ana's here with Lee and the damage has been done. I greatly fear the fall cold fronts, we are going to burn and burn badly.

[BigA]

00Z SREF (Short Range Ensemble forecast): North/northeast into central GOM in 87 hours

00Z NAM: Northwest/NNW toward Mexico at 84 hours, offshore between Tampico and Brownsville.

[South Texas Storms]

Whatever the track do not bring us any wind in TX. I stopped forecasting rain a month ago...it just is not going to rain...but do NOT let the winds blow. It is like California and the Santa Ana's here with Lee and the damage has been done. I greatly fear the fall cold fronts, we are going to burn and burn badly.

Jeff is it going to rain at all this month? I agree with you about every cold front that comes through this year will be dry and bring an extreme fire danger to us. Are you guys depressed like me?

[tobol.7uno]

Look at the Sea Surface Temperatures that it has to work with very high, I have also taken a look at the shear and it does not look too bad at the time, but it could increase if the storm moves NE.
SST...

24 hr Shear Tendency...

[ConvergenceZone]

Although we should be thankful for dry air, as it's kept the systems in check this year, does anyone know why there's so much dry air this year?? It seems like with every storm that's developed so far, I've heard "dry air" this and "dry air" that and it's been mentioned with every single tropical disturbance... I wonder why there's so much dry air in the Gulf/Atlantic this year? What the heck is going on?? This is really strange, but there must be a reason...Any pro mets venture a guess??

[Ptarmigan]

Storms in the Bay of Campeche tend to spin up quickly because of the curvature of Mexico.

[psyclone]

the southeastern half of the gulf is juicy with a tight moisture gradient. current dewpoint in tallahassee is 57 while tampa is 76.

[BigA]

Yep, looks like it is starting to spin up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow morning, and what recon finds. My gut says west into Mexico, but not sure at all on that.

[psyclone]

Yep, looks like it is starting to spin up. Will be interesting to see what it looks like tomorrow morning, and what recon finds. My gut says west into Mexico, but not sure at all on that.

i agree with your gut instincts on this. historical precedent is so overwhelming. what happens in the boc stays in the boc. naturally i'm watching for any rule breakers.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Wthrman13]

GFS ensembles from the 18Z run: totally different from the operational run



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I do not understand why ensembles often all vary so much from the operational. Aren't they like the operational, but with slightly different initial conditions? I would expect some to be quite different, but not all different in one direction.

One big reason, I think, is that the ensembles are run at a reduced resolution from the operational deterministic run (unless this has changed recently; I'd have to check to make sure). The operational GFS storm tracks, I've often noticed, are often major "outliers" when compared directly to the corresponding GFS ensemble members. They also, at least for the cases I've looked at, tend to outperform the GFS ensemble members. I confess that I've only really paid attention to a few cases, and the situation could have changed since I last really examined them (i.e. increasing model resolution, etc.). Also, keep in mind that for synoptic scale flow, the differences in resolvability between a typical ensemble member and the deterministic run probably aren't as significant as for smaller scale features such as TC's.

[DIwestender]

Am I wrong or did the latest GFS run head this straight into Mexico again? I am new at this so hoping one of you might check and confirm. Thanks!

[South Texas Storms]

Am I wrong or did the latest GFS run head this straight into Mexico again? I am new at this so hoping one of you might check and confirm. Thanks!

You are correct. 0z GFS stays consistent.

[ROCK]

IMO, I think this will be a Texas storm and bring tons of rain that will refill every lake we have from here to Dallas.....

just being positive...

[South Texas Storms]

Please be right please be right please be right.
I hope to wake up to some promising news for once. CMC and Euro better be good to Texas tonight.
Rock, you cantake over the late night model riegns for me tonight bro.

[ROCK]

Please be right please be right please be right.
I hope to wake up to some promising news for once. CMC and Euro better be good to Texas tonight.
Rock, you cantake over the late night model riegns for me tonight bro.

man I am done for tonight...just finishing up looking at the 0Z's....0z NOGAPS buries this into MX as well...

[South Texas Storms]

Ah crap. Thanks CMC to sending me off to bed in a wonderful way...it sends it to the NGOM....

[Rgv20]

IMO if 96L develops close to the NW Yucatan than odd are it would take the NE option as suggested by the 12zECMWF and 0zCMC but if it were to develop more south than a more WNW heading would be likely like the GFS and NAM are forecasting.

[lonelymike]

Doesn't look like CMC does much with the system strengthwise. Until NHC identifies a center these runs don't have much validity IMO.

[bigdan35]

It dont look that bad.



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