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SIO: BIANCA (12U/10S) - Tropical Cyclone
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 2:57 am WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Wallal.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to Exmouth.
At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land, 85 kilometres east of Kuri Bay and 435 kilometres northeast of Broome and moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest just inland from the northwest Kimberley coast. The low should reach cyclone intensity once it moves over open waters which may occur as early as this evening and bring gales to the west Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may develop in coastal areas of the Pilbara later on Wednesday and during Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome today. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Kuri Bay and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 125.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Tuesday 25 January.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 2:57 am WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Wallal.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to Exmouth.
At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land, 85 kilometres east of Kuri Bay and 435 kilometres northeast of Broome and moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest just inland from the northwest Kimberley coast. The low should reach cyclone intensity once it moves over open waters which may occur as early as this evening and bring gales to the west Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island and Kuri Bay.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may develop in coastal areas of the Pilbara later on Wednesday and during Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome today. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Kuri Bay and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 125.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Tuesday 25 January.
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Grifforzer
- Category 1
- Posts: 418
- Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 8:52 am WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Exmouth.
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be near the Kimberley coast, 150 kilometres north northeast of Derby and 300 kilometres northeast of Broome and moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest near the northwest Kimberley coast. The low should reach cyclone intensity after it moves over open waters which may occur as early as this evening, bringing gales to the west Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome today. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Koolan Island and Broome, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Derby and Broome need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Broome and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 124.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Tuesday 25 January.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 8:52 am WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Whim Creek to Exmouth.
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be near the Kimberley coast, 150 kilometres north northeast of Derby and 300 kilometres northeast of Broome and moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest near the northwest Kimberley coast. The low should reach cyclone intensity after it moves over open waters which may occur as early as this evening, bringing gales to the west Kimberley coast. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay including the communities of Beagle Bay, Cape Leveque, Cockatoo Island.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and Broome today. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Koolan Island and Broome, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Derby and Broome need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Broome and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 124.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Tuesday 25 January.
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 123.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [239 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 17.9S 121.0E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 991
+24: 26/0600: 19.0S 118.6E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 983
+36: 26/1800: 19.7S 116.3E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 27/0600: 20.6S 113.7E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 967
+60: 27/1800: 21.6S 111.1E: 200 [375]: 075 [140]: 962
+72: 28/0600: 23.1S 108.7E: 250 [465]: 070 [130]: 966
REMARKS:
Pressures at Koolan Island have started to rise. Lowest pressures are now in the
vicinity of Cape Leveque and wind directions there consistent with the location
derived from radar and VIS. Surface winds in the area are slowly starting to
increase.
The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands. Dvorak banding of around 0.4 can be
obtained on recent VIS imagery. Maximum winds analysed apply only to open
waters, winds will be lower overland. Given the structure evident in the system
cyclone intensity is cautiously forecast soon after the LLCC reaches open water,
though it may take until early Wednesday.
Vertical shear is low to moderate [around 10-15 knots over the LLCC]. With
significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to
develop at the climatological rate or slightly faster once it reaches open
water. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone
[hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system
moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0709 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 123.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [239 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1800: 17.9S 121.0E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 991
+24: 26/0600: 19.0S 118.6E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 983
+36: 26/1800: 19.7S 116.3E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 27/0600: 20.6S 113.7E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 967
+60: 27/1800: 21.6S 111.1E: 200 [375]: 075 [140]: 962
+72: 28/0600: 23.1S 108.7E: 250 [465]: 070 [130]: 966
REMARKS:
Pressures at Koolan Island have started to rise. Lowest pressures are now in the
vicinity of Cape Leveque and wind directions there consistent with the location
derived from radar and VIS. Surface winds in the area are slowly starting to
increase.
The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands. Dvorak banding of around 0.4 can be
obtained on recent VIS imagery. Maximum winds analysed apply only to open
waters, winds will be lower overland. Given the structure evident in the system
cyclone intensity is cautiously forecast soon after the LLCC reaches open water,
though it may take until early Wednesday.
Vertical shear is low to moderate [around 10-15 knots over the LLCC]. With
significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to
develop at the climatological rate or slightly faster once it reaches open
water. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone
[hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system
moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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-
Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 2:46 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo
Island to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Mardie to
Coral Bay.
The Cyclone Warning from Kuri Bay to Cockatoo Island is cancelled.
At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be near the Kimberley coast,
90 kilometres north northwest of Derby and
185 kilometres northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest near the west Kimberley coast. The
low should reach cyclone intensity soon after it moves over open waters. As a
consequence gales may occur on the west Kimberley coast as early as this
evening. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Koolan
Island and Beagle Bay including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo
Island, Lombadina, Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest,
parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara
during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome this afternoon and overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but
widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy
rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread
flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Koolan Island and
Wallal, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, Cape
Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Derby, Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse
and Wallal, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Wallal and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 123.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 25 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 2:46 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo
Island to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Mardie to
Coral Bay.
The Cyclone Warning from Kuri Bay to Cockatoo Island is cancelled.
At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be near the Kimberley coast,
90 kilometres north northwest of Derby and
185 kilometres northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest near the west Kimberley coast. The
low should reach cyclone intensity soon after it moves over open waters. As a
consequence gales may occur on the west Kimberley coast as early as this
evening. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are those between Koolan
Island and Beagle Bay including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo
Island, Lombadina, Cape Leveque and Beagle Bay.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest,
parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara
during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome this afternoon and overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but
widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy
rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread
flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Koolan Island and
Wallal, including the communities of Koolan Island, Cockatoo Island, Cape
Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay, Derby, Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse
and Wallal, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
Communities between Wallal and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.6 degrees South 123.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm WST Tuesday 25 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (98S)
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 5:46 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo
Island to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Mardie to
Coral Bay.
At 5:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be near the Kimberley coast,
105 kilometres west northwest of Derby and
115 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest near the west Kimberley coast. The
low should reach cyclone intensity soon after it moves over open waters. As a
consequence gales may occur on the west Kimberley coast as early as this
evening. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are Lombadina, Cape
Leveque and Beagle Bay.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest,
parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara
during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome this evening and overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but
widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy
rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread
flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island
and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.0 degrees South 122.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Tuesday 25 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 5:46 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cockatoo
Island to Mardie.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Mardie to
Coral Bay.
At 5:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be near the Kimberley coast,
105 kilometres west northwest of Derby and
115 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.
The low continues to track to the southwest near the west Kimberley coast. The
low should reach cyclone intensity soon after it moves over open waters. As a
consequence gales may occur on the west Kimberley coast as early as this
evening. The communities most at risk of gales tonight are Lombadina, Cape
Leveque and Beagle Bay.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the southwest,
parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of the Pilbara
during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome this evening and overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but
widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy
rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread
flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island
and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.0 degrees South 122.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Tuesday 25 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (98S)
Every update has it coming closer to us.....good chance of being sideswiped by a Cat 2
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-
Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 8:42 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Leveque to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Cockatoo Island to Cape Leveque has been cancelled.
At 8:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
80 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
485 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.
The low has now moved off the west Kimberley coast and continues to track
towards the west southwest. The low should reach cyclone intensity overnight
and gales may occur for a period on the west Kimberley coast.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west
southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of
the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is
not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along
parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island
and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.3 degrees South 121.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
Issued at 8:42 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Leveque to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Cockatoo Island to Cape Leveque has been cancelled.
At 8:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
80 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
485 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.
The low has now moved off the west Kimberley coast and continues to track
towards the west southwest. The low should reach cyclone intensity overnight
and gales may occur for a period on the west Kimberley coast.
On Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west
southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of
the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is
not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy rainfall may develop along
parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island
and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.3 degrees South 121.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 121.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 18.1S 119.4E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 985
+24: 26/1200: 19.0S 117.1E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 981
+36: 27/0000: 19.7S 114.9E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 973
+48: 27/1200: 20.6S 112.4E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 28/0000: 22.2S 110.0E: 200 [375]: 075 [140]: 960
+72: 28/1200: 24.5S 108.1E: 250 [465]: 065 [120]: 967
REMARKS:
Pressures at Broome have started to rise. Location derived from Broome radar and
surface observations.
The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands. Dvorak banding of around 0.4 can be
obtained on recent VIS/IR imagery. Given the structure evident in the system
cyclone intensity is forecast at 251800 UTC.
Vertical shear is low to moderate [around 10-15 knots over the LLCC]. With
significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to
develop at near the climatological rate. By Thursday it is likely to reach
severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday
as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 25/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.3S
Longitude: 121.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [241 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0000: 18.1S 119.4E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 985
+24: 26/1200: 19.0S 117.1E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 981
+36: 27/0000: 19.7S 114.9E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 973
+48: 27/1200: 20.6S 112.4E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 28/0000: 22.2S 110.0E: 200 [375]: 075 [140]: 960
+72: 28/1200: 24.5S 108.1E: 250 [465]: 065 [120]: 967
REMARKS:
Pressures at Broome have started to rise. Location derived from Broome radar and
surface observations.
The low is showing continued improvement in the cloud structure with some
curvature evident in the developing bands. Dvorak banding of around 0.4 can be
obtained on recent VIS/IR imagery. Given the structure evident in the system
cyclone intensity is forecast at 251800 UTC.
Vertical shear is low to moderate [around 10-15 knots over the LLCC]. With
significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast, the system is expected to
develop at near the climatological rate. By Thursday it is likely to reach
severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday
as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
From JTWC....
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF BROOME. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 30 KTS/996 MB JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED radar
IMAGERY FROM BROOME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE AND TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED WEST-EAST ALONG 23S LATITUDE. TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR, WHICH UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE RIDGE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241221Z
JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241230) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z AND 261500Z.//
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 121.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OFF THE COASTLINE INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF BROOME. THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 30 KTS/996 MB JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED radar
IMAGERY FROM BROOME. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE AND TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED WEST-EAST ALONG 23S LATITUDE. TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR, WHICH UNREALISTICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM INLAND INTO THE RIDGE.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 241221Z
JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241230) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z AND 261500Z.//
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Craiga74
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 42
- Age: 49
- Joined: Thu Feb 21, 2008 8:59 am
- Location: Port Hedland, Australia
- Contact:
Re: SIO: TROPICAL LOW (98S)
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Leveque to Coral Bay.
At 11:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
125 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
425 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.
The low currently lies off the west Kimberley coast and continues to track
towards the west southwest. The low should reach cyclone intensity during
Wednesday morning with gales possible for a period on the west Kimberley coast.
During Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west
southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of
the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome, easing during Wednesday. Localised stream rises are likely but
widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy
rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread
flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island
and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 121.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Tuesday 25 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Cape
Leveque to Coral Bay.
At 11:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
125 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
425 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.
The low currently lies off the west Kimberley coast and continues to track
towards the west southwest. The low should reach cyclone intensity during
Wednesday morning with gales possible for a period on the west Kimberley coast.
During Wednesday the system is expected to move steadily towards the west
southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast. Gales may occur in coastal areas of
the Pilbara during Wednesday and Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts of the Kimberley between Kalumburu and
Broome, easing during Wednesday. Localised stream rises are likely but
widespread flooding is not expected. During Wednesday and Thursday heavy
rainfall may develop along parts of the Pilbara coast but again, widespread
flooding is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in communities at Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island
and Derby are advised to proceed with caution.
Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 121.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
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