S ATL: ARANI (01Q) - Subtropical Storm

[CrazyC83]

Still doesn't have the look or feel of a TC though. It will have to hurry before landfall.

The pressure obs support 1005mb.

[HURAKAN]

Still doesn't have the look or feel of a TC though. It will have to hurry before landfall.

The pressure obs support 1005mb.

GFS has it moving away from the coast

[HURAKAN]

Latest GFS

[Grifforzer]

This system on the coast of Espírito Santo has the potential to intensify as it is warm enough water and there was wind shear decreased (shear), what precisely prompted their formation. The models, however, did not evolve much this system in intensity and most designs a trajectory almost stationary, what has happened in past occasions with this type of system in northeastern coast capixaba or. The system, however, deserves attention.

The biggest concern is not the wind, but rain in very high volumes and so extreme in an area that runs from the coast of Rio de Janeiro, especially in the North to Bahia. The accumulated rainfall in Vitória in Espírito Santo and other cities can be excessive in the next 72 to 96 hours as this system will persist on the coast.

the National Hurricane Center, such as the United States confirms MetSul said earlier that Invest 90Q is characteristic of a tropical depression. The NHC publishes guidance based on the model for tropical cyclones (GFDL) in which the path pointed to takes the system further to the South with offset in the open sea, away from the Mainland at the end of the cycle.

http://www.metsul.com/blog/

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

SL, 90, 2011031112, , BEST, 0, 194S, 399W, 30, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

It looks like a mess there.

[Grifforzer]

The centers of tropical cyclones in the United States Navy and NOAA (National Hurricane Center) have accompanied since yesterday a tropical depression that is East of the Holy Spirit and received the designation Invest 90Q. The last update of the best track of this system shows it to 19,5 ° South latitude and 39.9 longitude with pressure 1006 hPa and wind to 30 knots, not far from the threshold of tropical storm, though the system was incredibly disorganized in satellite imagery little believable for "almost" a tropical storm.

Most models intensifies this tropical depression that is now the coast of Espírito Santo as the system progresses by high seas in the next 72 hours. Almost all models indicate the center of the low moving away to the South and Southeast, moving gradually from the continent until the beginning of next week. The GFS model is one of the most aggressive in intensification as the GFDL model, designed especially to accompany tropical cyclones. Both (image below the GFDL) architect tropical storm over the weekend on the coast of southeastern Brazil

[cycloneye]

Looks better.

[StormTracker]

LOL!!! When I first saw this thread i thought to myself, Storm2k & cycloneye must be running a simulation or a test for the upcoming hurricane season! WOW!!!

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Let's see if the models are runned again,unless,they are doing it internally.

SL, 90, 2011031218, , BEST, 0, 201S, 400W, 30,1005 , LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

GFDL has made a run tonight and makes it a strong hurricane.

186
WHXX04 KWBC 122346
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90Q

INITIAL TIME 18Z MAR 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 -20.1 39.9 190./ 1.9
6 -19.6 40.0 351./ 4.9
12 -19.6 40.0 233./ .4
18 -19.8 39.8 126./ 2.3
24 -19.6 39.3 76./ 5.5
30 -19.7 38.5 95./ 7.0
36 -19.9 37.8 100./ 7.5
42 -20.3 37.1 125./ 7.9
48 -20.6 36.6 124./ 5.0
54 -20.9 36.3 132./ 3.8
60 -21.3 36.2 160./ 4.4
66 -21.9 35.9 156./ 6.3
72 -22.1 35.3 113./ 6.1
78 -22.0 35.3 32./ 1.3
84 -21.8 35.2 21./ 2.5
90 -21.6 34.9 59./ 2.8
96 -21.8 34.5 108./ 4.1
102 -21.5 34.5 356./ 2.6
108 -21.9 34.2 141./ 5.4
114 -22.5 33.5 130./ 8.9
120 -23.4 32.6 135./11.6
126 -23.9 31.5 115./11.8

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting GFDL run. Brings this invest up to a category 2 system.

[cycloneye]

Yes Johnnathan.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[Macrocane]

Very impressive though the HWRF does nothing with it, anyway it may be interesting to watch.

[Chacor]

Brazil's Navy Hydrographic Center, part of the Marine Met Service, has issued this:
PART TWO - ANALYSIS AT 130000

LOW 1004 AT 24S033W PREDICTED TO DEVELOP TO A SUBTROPICAL CICLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Chacor]

00z models from Brazil:

10m winds:


Sfc pressure:

[HURAKAN]

HPC:

SPECIAL STATEMENT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RISK OF WARM CORE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF RIO DE JANEIRO/ESPIRITO SANTO
THROUGH SUNDAY-MONDAY. THE NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC CENTER-BRAZILIAN
NAVY (SMM)...IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF
METEOROLOGY (INMET)...WILL ISSUE THE NECESSARY ADVISORIES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS MINAS GERAIS-RIO DE JANEIRO AND ESPIRITO SANTO.

MODEL COMPARISON (VALID FROM 00UTC MAR 11): THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TO FAVOR WARM CORE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF ESPIRITO
SANTO. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT/
EVOLUTION...WHILE THE UKMET PROJECTS A SLOWER PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER
SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS DEEP/INTENSE AS THE GFS PROJECTS AND SOMEWHAT
CLOSER TO THE UKMET. ONCE IT DEVELOPS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW FAST IT IS GOING TO PULL TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS MOVING AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE
GFS. THIS IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 60/72
HRS...AND HEAVY RAINS MIGHT LAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.

[cycloneye]

GFDL continues to develop a cat 2 cyclone.00z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The latest.