WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

#21 Postby **supercane** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 1:09 am

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.0N
123.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 122.3E,
<snip>
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.5N
160.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH
OF POHNPEI, MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 100326Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A DEVELOPING LLCC WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. A 092241Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS OF WINDS AT THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND FORECASTED MODEL DEVELOPMENT (NOGAPS, GFS, AND
ECMWF), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

Latest Dvorak from SAB still at 1.5:
TXPQ26 KNES 100337
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 10/0232Z
C. 17.7N
D. 159.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT IS 2.5 BASED UPON 5/10 BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN FT OF NO MORE THAN
1.5 OVER 12 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...MYRGA

KWT · #22 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:57 am

00z ECM not as agressive on this run as it was on its 12z run last night, though it still does develop it.

Looks like its slowly organising at the moment, but it is a slow process.

phwxenthusiast · #23 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:26 am

from Guam AFD

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE WAS SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.
JTWC INVEST AREA 90W...WHICH WAS JUST UPGRADED FROM LOW TO MEDIUM
...WAS CENTERED BETWEEN WAKE ISLAND AND THE MARIANAS NEAR 18N158E. A
TUTT CELL WAS CENTERED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF 90W NEAR 18N154E. AT
PRESENT...THE TUTT CELL APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING ANY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF 90W. AFTERNOON HEATING WAS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND OVER GUAM THIS AFTERNOON.

#24 Postby **StormingB81** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:54 am

well ECMWF had it developing in like three days and thats when it took off..so we will see what happends

dexterlabio · #25 Postby **dexterlabio** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:22 am

KWT wrote:00z ECM not as agressive on this run as it was on its 12z run last night, though it still does develop it.

Looks like its slowly organising at the moment, but it is a slow process.

Seems like the case. Still long range though so future track and intensities are still inconclusive, but I think we may see systems coming one after another as what has been depicted for the previous runs.

Shear is still somewhat unfriendly around the area so it still needs time before it takes a step forward.

#26 Postby **supercane** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 11:20 am

12Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 18N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.

ASCAT still shows a weak enlongated circulation:

90W caught in between two TUTT cells, one to the NW and one to the NE:

perhaps enhancing some convection on the one hand, but on the other hand resulting in some degree of shear:

Latest SAB Dvorak still at T1.5:
TXPQ26 KNES 101507
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 10/1432Z
C. 17.8N
D. 158.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

KWT · #27 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 11:47 am

Certainly looking like we could be waiting a few days for anything to really come together with this system.

#28 Postby **supercane** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 2:28 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 101813
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (W OF WAKE ISALND)
B. 10/1732Z
C. 17.7N
D. 158.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.5 STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP YIELDED A
1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST
12Z GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC model runs:

12Z ECMWF at 6 days, showing the current system and one developing behind it:

#29 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:52 pm

Such a high probability across the Pacific Today, with this invest looking to be the most promising. I would not be surprised if we get at least a TD out of this before it encounters chillier waters. (my thoughts though)

#30 Postby **supercane** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:09 pm

JMA 18Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 18N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Latest SAB satellite bulletin:
TXPQ26 KNES 102110
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 10/2032Z
C. 17.7N
D. 157.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...LIDDICK

#31 Postby **StormingB81** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 6:19 pm

Supercane your thoughts on tha model with that storm and the one behind it what do you think the intensity will be? tropical, storm typhoon?

#32 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 8:46 pm

I think the big uncertainty with this one will be interaction down the road with the other potential system which forms west of Guam. ECMWF has been showing this scenario for a few runs now and it certainly throws up a lot of uncertainty in the long range track and intensity. I don't like Fujiwara effect, I much prefer tracking TCs when they're not being influenced or hammered by others nearby - too much of a good thing eh?

Given how much real estate it has I think chances are pretty high this could ramp up into a typhoon. We're getting to the stage of the season where you have to go way north to find cooler waters (currently SSTs of 27-28C are lapping south coast of Honshu) so my prediction is based on how much time and space this one will have.

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:41 pm

Latest ... looking good

#34 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:03 am

TCFA ISSUED:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 158.4E TO 19.6N 152.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 157.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 102226Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CYCLIC AND HAS NOT PERSISTED OVER
THE LLCC DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CAUSING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 102221Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (>20 KNOTS) EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//

#35 Postby **supercane** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:06 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Storming, I think it is always difficult to trust model storms that are still a week out. The situation is even more difficult because all most of us have for the ECMWF is the crude free data from their site, making it impossible to analyze the details as we could for the GFS. For instance, what exactly is the source of the trailing system? 91W? Some other circulation that is not evident yet? Too premature to venture that far out.
As for 90W itself, it appears that the TUTT to its west is rapidly moving away towards the Marianas, but just as the ventilation on the west side is improving, the other TUTT cell that was to 90W's north looks to be moving WSW on the water vapor, and its currently beneficial ventilatory effects could possibly re-restrict outflow from the western side of any developing circulation. Strength would partially depend on the system's interaction with ULLs, which models are generally poor at predicting. The 00Z GFS drops this to around 972 mb. As for track, the subtropical ridge should be the dominant feature steering this, with an expectation of a generally west to west-northwest track followed by recurvature, but as always the exact timing and longitude of recurvature cannot be predicted with exactitude at this time. The GFS does have the system do a strange stall SE of the Ryukyus.

Latest Dvorak classifications from both SAB and JTWC 1.5/25kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 110016
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)
B. 10/2332Z
C. 17.8N
D. 157.8E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDED A
1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

TXPQ26 KNES 110311
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 11/0232Z
C. 17.8N
D. 158.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON CONSENSUS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SALEMI

#36 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:12 am

Very true..just have to wait and see...the last couple of years he we have seen that you just have to wait and see what happends because even with models these things can be very strange and do what they wants..the yare very unpredictable.

phwxenthusiast · #37 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:07 am

latest Euro showing very potent system.. becoming 958hpa by day 7

#38 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:16 am

WOW! It ramped this storm up again on ECMWF!

#39 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:26 am

Latest ECMWF run really not good for Ryuku islands and S Korea. It looks to absorb 91W and explode into a cat. 5 - a real monster of a typhoon.

Despite uncertainties in track and intensity it's looking more and more likely we'll be having a powerful long tracking typhoon later in the week. GFS, CMC and UKMET also keen on development and strengthening this storm.

Next name on list is Ma-on which is a mountain just over the nearest ridge line from me in Hong Kong!

phwxenthusiast · #40 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:34 am

max wind vector for 850mb from ECMWF is around 45m/s or 162kph at day 6....

WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W (JTWC: TCFA Issued)

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