WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

[StormingB81]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 131E ALMOST STATIONARY

[phwxenthusiast]

Latest IR frames now showing cooling cloud tops...

[StormingB81]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3N 129.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 23/1710Z
89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS FAIRLY WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE, BUT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB BASED ON A NEARBY
SHIP REPORT. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[phwxenthusiast]

partly exposed eh... prolly a TCFA by 06z or 12z at the latest... ASCAT picked up the LLCC with 25kts on the SW quadrant... still some easterly shear though

[dexterlabio]

GFS run 2318z


Shear is pretty high on its south. Its convection is also dispersed more on the SW...

[dexterlabio]

partly exposed eh... prolly a TCFA by 06z or 12z at the latest... ASCAT picked up the LLCC with 25kts on the SW quadrant... still some easterly shear though

Hi, where do you get the ASCAT images? Thanks!

[phwxenthusiast]

partly exposed eh... prolly a TCFA by 06z or 12z at the latest... ASCAT picked up the LLCC with 25kts on the SW quadrant... still some easterly shear though

Hi, where do you get the ASCAT images? Thanks!

here:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TData.php/

[phwxenthusiast]

partly exposed eh... prolly a TCFA by 06z or 12z at the latest... ASCAT picked up the LLCC with 25kts on the SW quadrant... still some easterly shear though

TCFA as of 0630z from JTWC

WTPN21 PGTW 240630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 129.5E TO 13.9N 125.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 128.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.3N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
SLOWLY BUILDING OVER A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THAT HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN A POLEWARD OOUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY, AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE
VWS WILL RELAX AND PROMOTE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240630) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO
INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250630Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Thanks, phwxenthusiast! And nice, TCFA was indeed issued shortly.

[dexterlabio]

Euro quite picking up its strength on the latest run.






GFS, CMC, UKX latest run

[dexterlabio]

JMA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 13N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[zaqxsw75050]

Euro forecast a direct hit on Hong Kong Let's see what the next run say...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Now this is becoming one for northern Luzon and Guangdong to watch closely. Latest Euro really is a ramp up on intensity and it looks like the environment will be pretty good. This is also mentioned by JTWC in the TCFA text.

HKO already anticipating some interesting weather next week in their forecast:

"The area of low pressure now over the seas east of the Philippines is expected to intensify in the next few days and bring unsettled weather to the northern part of the South China Sea and the coast of Guangdong in the latter part of this week."

I think we can safely say this one won't affect Okinawa

[StormingB81]

UPGRADED to Tropical Depression

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 12.9N 127.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 127.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.8N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.7N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.6N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.4N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.2N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 127.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 241200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN A MODERATELY DIFFLUENT
REGION POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS EASED FROM TO 10-15 KNOTS, AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SUPPRESSION OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW BY THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS ALSO EASING. GOOD
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SMALL CELL WITHIN THE TUTT TO LINK WITH THE
SYSTEM AND FACILITATE FORMATION OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 30 DEGREES. A 241154Z AMSRE IMAGE
REVEALS THICK CURVED BANDING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC,
WITH PERSISTENT AND INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR AND SOUTHERN
LUZON ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND PRESSURES
CORRESPONDING TO 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER OPEN WATERS. A 241317Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20
KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING THROUGH A WEAKNESS SOUTHWEST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR
35N 160E. THE ANTICYCLONE IS RETROGRADING SOUTHEAST AND WILL PROVIDE
MORE FORCEFUL STEERING TO THE SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM TERM, WHICH WILL
FORCE IT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE LUZON STRAIT
(BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72). WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SO FAR IS
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST USES CONSTANT BEARING AND
SPEED FROM THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS,
WHICH COMES OUT BEING CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKER AND THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED EQUATORWARD BY
GFS AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL. THE BEST TRACK POSITION IS BASED
HEAVILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND IS OF GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS ALSO BASED HEAVILY ON THE ASCAT IMAGE, AS WELL AS A
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 20 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE HISTORICALLY FERTILE GROUNDS OF THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE EXPECTATION OF AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 240621Z
JUL 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 240630 )
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

[P.K.]

18Z:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 130E ALMOST STATIONARY

[StormingB81]

JMA has this one at a tropical depression within 24 hours (I am sure it will be one here shortly) and then both 93 and 94 to be tropical depressions in 48 hours

[RobWESTPACWX]

I wish I could write Pagasa and make some friendly suggestions, cause this seems misleading with a potential tropical right off the coast.

"As of today, there is no tropical cyclone within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). "

I mean I get what they are saying, but the general person, it seems mis-leading, but they did have this to say as well.

At 8 am today, The Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 450 km East Northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar (12.1°N 130.0°E) and embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

These weather systems are expected to bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. However widespread rains is likely in Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

The next advisory will be issued at 11 am tomorrow.


---
Any how, time for the PI to but on there rain caps yet again.

[HURAKAN]

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