ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Javlin]

Still looks to be a circulation below 15'N.The wave looks Yuc/Strait bound ATM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

Yep. Its seemed like something that would be in the Bahamas next week but its not gaining latitude and until it develops, I don't see it going too much further north.

I'm guessing the more northern models are developing it too quick like they always do and pull it north. Its still a minimum of 36 hours from developing. More like 72.

EDIT: I think Yucatan is too far south. Might track near Hispaniola.

Maybe;not much being gained in Lat the last few days I was trying to put emphasis on the Yuccatan tip/strait

[Blown Away]

Now that we have a general spot to look @13.5N/53.1W, maybe we can find a developing LLC due to the limited convection above this area?

[Frank2]

That METEO FRANCE photo (per Gustywind) is always over exposed and VERY misleading - see what the current NOAA VIS photo reveals about the same wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you Lewis. I'm sure the Navy Commander has ship to shore and plenty of communication available, but we were concerned. Anastassia is 15 and is with a group of 8 Navy JROTC teens on the sailing trip. The ROTC commander and a Navy Chief Petty Officer are also about the 50-foot ship. Trip of a lifetime! But we sure are keeping track of the tropical weather. Thanks again.

[Gustywind]

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Statements
953
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.

[AHS2011]

Anyone thinking that this will be the first hurricane of the season?

[TheBurn]

[Blown Away]

Tropical Weather Statements
953
NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.

That was issued yesterday and looking at the 12z BAM model plots, doesn't look like they think a possible low will be near 21.0N/69.0W, looks like any possible low will be be farther S.

[sunnyday]

If this is the low discussed by Jeff Masters in his blog, he initially said that it might curve out to sea after reaching the Bahamas next week. Yesterday, however, he said it could move up the East coast or even go in the Gulf of Mexico. Bret and Cindy are out to sea just like most storms from last year, but I read an article saying that shouldn't happen this year. Who knows ?

[HURAKAN]

Anyone thinking that this will be the first hurricane of the season?

Before asking if it will be a hurricane I think we need to ask if it will develop.

[Blown Away]

If this is the low discussed by Jeff Masters in his blog, he initially said that it might curve out to sea after reaching the Bahamas next week. Yesterday, however, he said it could move up the East coast or even go in the Gulf of Mexico. Bret and Cindy are out to sea just like most storms from last year, but I read an article saying that shouldn't happen this year. Who knows ?

Is that from JM's blog from yesterday's? Difficulty seeing how 90L will make it N of PR & DR now, IMO through or S of those islands.

[KWT]

I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up abit like Dolly from 2008, where we get a system that takes a while to come together but eventually becomes a fairly decent system in the Gulf/BoC region...

Much depends on what/if any area consolidates at all.

[tailgater]

Looking at the radar and the sat pics a strong line of showers/tstorms is heading in my direction. An impressive lightning has just bright my house close to my window . Thunder is rolling nicely. Lightnings continue to bright the atmosphere...

Hey Gusty could you also keep us updated on wind direction and estimated speed?
txa

[KWT]

That METEO FRANCE photo (per Gustywind) is always over exposed and VERY misleading - see what the current NOAA VIS photo reveals about the same wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

Yeah at the moment its not that impressive, its probably been invested due to its possible track and the fact that the models are suggesting at least some degree of strengthening (though whether it becomes a TC is another matter!)

[cycloneye]

Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Blown Away]

That METEO FRANCE photo (per Gustywind) is always over exposed and VERY misleading - see what the current NOAA VIS photo reveals about the same wave:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-l.jpg

Yeah at the moment its not that impressive, its probably been invested due to its possible track and the fact that the models are suggesting at least some degree of strengthening (though whether it becomes a TC is another matter!)

90L has been slowly developing over the past 48 hours. Compared to yesterday 90L now has convection persistent near the broad circulation. It's impressive compared to 24 hours ago, but the question is will the slow development continue, if yes we could see a TD in a few days, IMO. One thing has been constant for the past 48 hours is slow continuous development.

[cycloneye]

This is today's TCPOD:

NOUS42 KNHC 221330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 22 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 20.0N 68.0W AT 24/1800Z.

[KWT]

Pretty much the same location as Bonnie was first tracked last year...

My gut feeling is it'll be a bit south of that, maybe even over Hispaniola or scraping the coast...but people need to remember, with a weak system high ground really isn't nearly as much as a problem as it is with a stronger system...

[Blown Away]

This is today's TCPOD:

NOUS42 KNHC 221330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 22 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 20.0N 68.0W AT 24/1800Z.

Explain why they post conflicting info, the 12Z BAM's are way S of 20N/68W at 24/18Z? Should we conclude they put more confidence TCPOD than 12z BAM's?