ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: looks like 93L is going to catch up with L92. I wonder if they will merge.
Could this slow development of both disturbances?

Even if they do merge, it would still have a long time to develop into something so IMO it doesnt really matter.

[Jevo]

New Invest... Hot Towers... Circular appearance...

I would say this

[South Texas Storms]

Looking forward to Many Days and Nights of Model Plotting from Luis, Rock and IvanHater

Me too CZ. I really enjoy the late night model wars between ROCK and Ivanhater.

[Blown Away]

IMO, 92L looks like it will move around the western periphery of the HP, but 93L should move in tandem under the HP as the HP moves WSW? Reading the map correctly?

[TheBurn]

NRL 20Z VIS/IR shot of 93L

[HurricaneFan]

If 92L turns out to sea, wouldn't 93L follow that weakness left and follow a similar path? Systems currently look fairly close in proximity.

It looks like the ridge will move in tandem with 93L behind 92L and that is why the models have a more west track.Of course is early in the game and many changes for sure will occur in the model scenarios.

But why are they turning NW or almost NNW at the end of their runs?

[Vortex]

looks like we have a long tracker.....

[South Texas Storms]

Wow crazy run by the 18z GFS with both 92L and 93L! If someone could post images or explain better that would be great as I am going to cook dinner now.

[Kory]

Wow crazy run by the 18z GFS with both 92L and 93L! If someone could post images or explain better that would be great as I am going to cook dinner now.

Yep 18z GFS bring 93L to the central Gulf Coast as a category 1 hurricane.

[Florida1118]

Did anyone see the Fujiwara effect on one of the models...?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS EMERGED FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA
AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HurricaneBelle]

Yowzah. If those 300+ hr GFS forecasts verified with simultaneous hurricanes off either coast of Florida, there'd be rioting in the streets and the S2K server would be a smoldering ruin from the overload.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SECOND 1010 MB LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N16W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-14N E
OF 21W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

[vacanechaser]

damn!! it looks really good right now.. i must say..




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[floridasun78]

ok look like train left afica train station i hope we ready for next few week i hope storm2k server will able take alot traffic because here it come

[HurricaneFan]

Why is 93L also moving slow compared to past Tropical Waves?

[cycloneye]

Why is 93L also moving slow compared to past Tropical Waves?

Weak subtropical ridge caused by a negative NAO. But it is forecast to turn positive after mid August.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2011081100, , BEST, 0, 101N, 173W, 20, 1011, DB

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 110109
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0109 UTC THU AUG 11 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110811 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110811  0000   110811  1200   110812  0000   110812  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.1N  17.3W   10.6N  20.6W   11.2N  23.7W   12.1N  26.8W
BAMD    10.1N  17.3W   10.4N  20.4W   10.9N  23.2W   11.4N  25.7W
BAMM    10.1N  17.3W   10.7N  20.6W   11.5N  23.7W   12.3N  26.7W
LBAR    10.1N  17.3W   10.6N  20.5W   11.3N  24.0W   11.8N  27.6W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          37KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          29KTS          37KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110813  0000   110814  0000   110815  0000   110816  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  30.1W   13.0N  37.6W   11.7N  45.3W   10.2N  51.3W
BAMD    12.0N  28.0W   13.5N  32.9W   15.6N  37.0W   18.0N  39.8W
BAMM    13.1N  29.8W   14.0N  36.7W   14.2N  43.6W   14.6N  49.8W
LBAR    12.5N  31.0W   13.2N  37.7W   13.1N  43.1W   13.3N  47.8W
SHIP        43KTS          51KTS          55KTS          61KTS
DSHP        43KTS          51KTS          55KTS          61KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.1N LONCUR =  17.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =   9.6N LONM12 =  14.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =   9.3N LONM24 =  12.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Rainband]

Yowzah. If those 300+ hr GFS forecasts verified with simultaneous hurricanes off either coast of Florida, there'd be rioting in the streets and the S2K server would be a smoldering ruin from the overload.

link???