ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

What is the feeling for the northern islands? Seems everyone is worried about SFla already....I know it's early, so monitoring for now..

Could be an issue with a strenghtening system passing through the Islands.

[OuterBanker]

JB's thoughts (let the barbs begin). It will take a path similar to Emily with the difference being that it will be stronger when it gets to the islands. This will allow it to probably miss Hispaniola to the north. I think his path is landfall south of Savannah. If there is good news, at least NC seems to be out of it now.

[CrazyC83]

JB's thoughts (let the barbs begin). It will take a path similar to Emily with the difference being that it will be stronger when it gets to the islands. This will allow it to probably miss Hispaniola to the north. I think his path is landfall south of Savannah. If there is good news, at least NC seems to be out of it now.

Wouldn't it race inland and create a major problem in the inland sections with such a track?

[gatorcane]

JB's thoughts (let the barbs begin). It will take a path similar to Emily with the difference being that it will be stronger when it gets to the islands. This will allow it to probably miss Hispaniola to the north. I think his path is landfall south of Savannah. If there is good news, at least NC seems to be out of it now.

Very far out and too early to say where it goes if it develops. NC is not out of it right now at all, nor are those in the GOM.....

I will hope that the ULL NE of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and or Cuba will do a number on it and keep it from getting too strong.....

But it may end up south or north of the islands, we don't know yet.

[CrazyC83]

JB's thoughts (let the barbs begin). It will take a path similar to Emily with the difference being that it will be stronger when it gets to the islands. This will allow it to probably miss Hispaniola to the north. I think his path is landfall south of Savannah. If there is good news, at least NC seems to be out of it now.

Very far out and too early to say where it goes if it develops. NC is not out of it right now at all, nor are those in the GOM.....

I will hope that the ULL and Hispaniola will do a number on it and keep it from getting too strong.....

At this point, no one is out of it. It could go anywhere from an early recurve (unlikely but possible) to south of the islands like 93L.

[Scorpion]

Don't understand how someone can call for landfall in GA given how difficult that would be and it has been over 100 years. It's either GOM, FL, or Carolinas IMO.

[KWT]

What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.

Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...

Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.

[T'Bonz]

Our local met (Miami) has mentioned this (before it was an invest) for 2 evenings now. This is unusual, as they usually don't mention stuff that doesn't seem to be coming our way or that is far away.

[CrazyC83]

What i will say is the large circulation isn't a good thing at all, both the system and the US.

Will mean it will take a while to pull itself together, esp given the huge area of weak/moderate SAL to the north/west of the system...

Don't expect anything berfore 55-60W....but no doubt this one has got to be really closely watched.

A weaker storm draws southward. That would more likely send it towards, or even south of, the islands.

[MGC]

97L is surrounded by dry air that it will have to battle.....looks like the shear might pick up in a couple of days.....I don't know....MGC

[GCANE]

Will be interesting to see if we get that pulsing 12hrs intensification followed by 12hrs weakening like we had with the other systems.

[Scorpion]

97L is surrounded by dry air that it will have to battle.....looks like the shear might pick up in a couple of days.....I don't know....MGC

I guess every global model disagrees with you..

[gatorcane]

97L is surrounded by dry air that it will have to battle.....looks like the shear might pick up in a couple of days.....I don't know....MGC

I guess every global model disagrees with you..

Well that ULL is there, and I pointed this out yesterday. Hopefully it starts to rip into it....but it may help to flare up more convection also...and give it a spark

[Gustywind]

What is the feeling for the northern islands? Seems everyone is worried about SFla already....I know it's early, so monitoring for now..

Could be an issue with a strenghtening system passing through the Islands.

Ok thanks Ivanhater for you thought. Whereas, what is your best guess in term of intensity ? Should the islands may be dealing with a TD or a TS ?

[KWT]

97L is surrounded by dry air that it will have to battle.....looks like the shear might pick up in a couple of days.....I don't know....MGC

I guess every global model disagrees with you..

To be fair nearly all the global models show little of note for the next few days, and quite a few don't get a closed system till 5-6 days time...

I'm going to have a look back at Erika in 2007 just to see if there were any parlells or not

[Ivanhater]

What is the feeling for the northern islands? Seems everyone is worried about SFla already....I know it's early, so monitoring for now..

Could be an issue with a strenghtening system passing through the Islands.

Ok thanks Ivanhater for you thought. Whereas, what is your best guess in term of intensity ? Should the islands may be dealing with a TD or a TS ?

GFS looks to show it nearing Hurricane status as it passes a bit south of the British and U.S Virgin Islands. Euro is a bit more conservative and ramps it up as it nears PR.

[jlauderdal]

Our local met (Miami) has mentioned this (before it was an invest) for 2 evenings now. This is unusual, as they usually don't mention stuff that doesn't seem to be coming our way or that is far away.

Channel 7?

[BatzVI]

Last I saw the ULL to the north was supposed to weaken and move to the N...what kind of effect would that have if it pans out?

[Gustywind]

south of Guadeloupe reaching hurricane?! is always worrying, something to keep an eye on . Thanks for your daily input Ivanhater . Let's wait and see.

[KWT]

GFS looks to show it nearing Hurricane status as it passes a bit south of the British and U.S Virgin Islands. Euro is a bit more conservative and ramps it up as it nears PR.

Yep given the dry air currently nearby, the ECM looks a much better call at the moment.

History teaches us to be very wary of systems that blow up near 60-70W...