TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR OVER MARIA HAS AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY ABATED...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BELIEVED
TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 55 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF INCREASED
ORGANIZATION...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME
PROHIBITIVELY STRONG UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...SO SOME STRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT MARIA BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRUCTURE SOON AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A WELL-DEFINED
BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
EASTERN CANADA.
THE BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 350/8.
THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN.
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT
AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE AREA. BY 48 HOURS...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE STORM TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION. THE
TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON THIS
CYCLE...BUT VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 23.5N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 28.8N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 32.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 38.0N 64.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 52.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
SEVERAL FORTUITOUS OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 WERE USED TO
PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIA JUST WEST OF THE BUOY...AND
JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS. BUOY 41046 HAS BEEN REPORTING NEAR STEADY 35-KT WINDS THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A PRESSURE OF 1004.5 MB AT 06Z. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE BUOY LIES INSIDE THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THAT THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
MARIA IS NEAR 1001 MB. GIVEN THAT SEVERAL SHIPS AND BUOYS HAVE
REPORTED PRESSURES ABOVE 1015 MB ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...I FEEL THAT MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT LIE JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE BUOY IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THAT QUADRANT. THIS
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN...AND ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE
HIGHER-THAN-STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP NOTED IN AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA THREE DAYS AGO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09 KT. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MARIA TURNING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 24-30 HOURS AS MARIA PASSES WEST OF
BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IN 60-72 HOURS...AND
BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR IS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
LOWEST...AND SSTS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGHEST. BY 48
HOURS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 40 KT...WHICH WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH MARIA MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
GUIDANCE...AND IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...
ESPECIALLY AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 24.2N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 26.7N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 30.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 35.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 41.1N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 55.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
SEVERAL FORTUITOUS OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 WERE USED TO
PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIA JUST WEST OF THE BUOY...AND
JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS. BUOY 41046 HAS BEEN REPORTING NEAR STEADY 35-KT WINDS THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A PRESSURE OF 1004.5 MB AT 06Z. BASED ON
THIS INFORMATION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE BUOY LIES INSIDE THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THAT THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
MARIA IS NEAR 1001 MB. GIVEN THAT SEVERAL SHIPS AND BUOYS HAVE
REPORTED PRESSURES ABOVE 1015 MB ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...I FEEL THAT MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT LIE JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE BUOY IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THAT QUADRANT. THIS
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN...AND ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE
HIGHER-THAN-STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP NOTED IN AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA THREE DAYS AGO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09 KT. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MARIA TURNING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 24-30 HOURS AS MARIA PASSES WEST OF
BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IN 60-72 HOURS...AND
BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR IS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
LOWEST...AND SSTS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGHEST. BY 48
HOURS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 40 KT...WHICH WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH MARIA MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
GUIDANCE...AND IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...
ESPECIALLY AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 24.2N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 26.7N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 30.4N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 35.3N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 41.1N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 55.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
...MARIA TURNS TO THE NORTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA DATA BUOY 41046...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND
A GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF
EARLIER ESTIMATES. WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...
WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. ABOUT
HALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT
THIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS
BEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS
CAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
THE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AFTER THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD
WATERS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.6N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 36.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
...MARIA TURNS TO THE NORTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA DATA BUOY 41046...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND
A GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF
EARLIER ESTIMATES. WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...
WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. ABOUT
HALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT
THIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS
BEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS
CAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
THE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AFTER THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD
WATERS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.6N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 36.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
Tropical Storm MARIA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141733
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011
...LITTLE CHANGE WITH MARIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 69.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA DATA BUOY 41046...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H AND
A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT34 KNHC 141733
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011
...LITTLE CHANGE WITH MARIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 69.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA DATA BUOY 41046...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H AND
A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
Recon is in the air, though, as the mission is flying from Biloxi, it will be some ~2.5 hours before the plane reaches Maria.
URNT15 KNHC 141817
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 05 20110914
180730 3049N 08554W 3759 07987 0367 -240 //// 299012 012 /// /// 05
180800 3049N 08551W 3759 07986 0367 -240 //// 301012 012 /// /// 05
180830 3048N 08547W 3759 07987 0367 -240 //// 295011 011 /// /// 05
180900 3048N 08544W 3759 07985 0366 -240 //// 295011 012 /// /// 05
180930 3048N 08541W 3758 07987 0366 -240 //// 308010 011 /// /// 05
181000 3048N 08537W 3761 07983 0366 -240 //// 308011 011 /// /// 05
181030 3048N 08534W 3759 07986 0366 -240 //// 317012 013 /// /// 05
181100 3048N 08531W 3759 07983 0365 -239 //// 311013 013 /// /// 05
181130 3048N 08528W 3759 07982 0364 -238 //// 309013 014 /// /// 05
181200 3048N 08524W 3757 07989 0365 -240 //// 311013 013 /// /// 05
181230 3048N 08521W 3758 07986 0365 -240 //// 314013 013 /// /// 05
181300 3048N 08518W 3759 07985 0364 -239 //// 318013 014 /// /// 05
181330 3048N 08514W 3759 07982 0363 -240 //// 321014 014 /// /// 05
181400 3048N 08511W 3759 07983 0363 -240 //// 321014 014 /// /// 05
181430 3047N 08508W 3761 07981 0363 -240 //// 317014 015 /// /// 05
181500 3046N 08504W 3758 07985 0363 -240 //// 317015 016 /// /// 05
181530 3045N 08501W 3758 07986 0363 -240 //// 316016 016 /// /// 05
181600 3044N 08458W 3761 07980 0362 -240 //// 315016 016 /// /// 05
181630 3044N 08455W 3759 07982 0363 -240 //// 317017 017 /// /// 05
181700 3043N 08452W 3758 07985 0363 -240 //// 318017 018 /// /// 05
URNT15 KNHC 141817
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 05 20110914
180730 3049N 08554W 3759 07987 0367 -240 //// 299012 012 /// /// 05
180800 3049N 08551W 3759 07986 0367 -240 //// 301012 012 /// /// 05
180830 3048N 08547W 3759 07987 0367 -240 //// 295011 011 /// /// 05
180900 3048N 08544W 3759 07985 0366 -240 //// 295011 012 /// /// 05
180930 3048N 08541W 3758 07987 0366 -240 //// 308010 011 /// /// 05
181000 3048N 08537W 3761 07983 0366 -240 //// 308011 011 /// /// 05
181030 3048N 08534W 3759 07986 0366 -240 //// 317012 013 /// /// 05
181100 3048N 08531W 3759 07983 0365 -239 //// 311013 013 /// /// 05
181130 3048N 08528W 3759 07982 0364 -238 //// 309013 014 /// /// 05
181200 3048N 08524W 3757 07989 0365 -240 //// 311013 013 /// /// 05
181230 3048N 08521W 3758 07986 0365 -240 //// 314013 013 /// /// 05
181300 3048N 08518W 3759 07985 0364 -239 //// 318013 014 /// /// 05
181330 3048N 08514W 3759 07982 0363 -240 //// 321014 014 /// /// 05
181400 3048N 08511W 3759 07983 0363 -240 //// 321014 014 /// /// 05
181430 3047N 08508W 3761 07981 0363 -240 //// 317014 015 /// /// 05
181500 3046N 08504W 3758 07985 0363 -240 //// 317015 016 /// /// 05
181530 3045N 08501W 3758 07986 0363 -240 //// 316016 016 /// /// 05
181600 3044N 08458W 3761 07980 0362 -240 //// 315016 016 /// /// 05
181630 3044N 08455W 3759 07982 0363 -240 //// 317017 017 /// /// 05
181700 3043N 08452W 3758 07985 0363 -240 //// 318017 018 /// /// 05
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion
clfenwi, is the present mission the last one for Maria?
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AnnularCane
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- Location: Wytheville, VA
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Where is everybody?
Maria would like some attention too!
Maria would like some attention too!
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:No threat to land so as you can see nobody really cares anymore
Unfortunately this is true, even though I still have questions of the strength and movement of this system. Also Bermuda is land and is under a Tropical Storm Warning, so this is still a threat to people out there, also Cruise Ships go in between Bermuda and the ConUS, so those people are still in harms way, so we need to keep an eye o her.
Many people might be taking some time to rest before the next rush that might be happening in the next couple weeks. Lets just hope that this is just a sign of what the rest of the season will be, nice and quiet with many cool fronts coming down and cooling off the ConUS..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon Discussion
They must be saving their fuel for the next storm. This is September 14th which is usually the peak of the season, but it feels more like October. The last trough dug down all the way to Cuba leaving the whole gulf of Mexico under a dry air mass.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE APPROACHING MARIA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.3W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING MARIA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS FROM THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE
CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE. WITH
THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS...SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MARIA HAS MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM
WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE LAST
ADVISORY...SHOWING A PEAK NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. MARIA SHOULD
BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD WATER...AND BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BY DAY 3.
MARIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 13 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH...AND LIE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST LEANS ON
THOSE TOP-PERFORMING MODELS...AND ENDS UP A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 26.3N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 33.8N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 39.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 45.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE APPROACHING MARIA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 69.3W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING MARIA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS FROM THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE
CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE. WITH
THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS...SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MARIA HAS MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM
WATER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE LAST
ADVISORY...SHOWING A PEAK NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. MARIA SHOULD
BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD WATER...AND BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BY DAY 3.
MARIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 13 KT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH...AND LIE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST LEANS ON
THOSE TOP-PERFORMING MODELS...AND ENDS UP A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 26.3N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 33.8N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 39.0N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 45.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:No threat to land so as you can see nobody really cares any more
I'm always disappointed to see the comments drop of because TCs are not effecting land. I am interested in all tropical systems whether or not they are going to effect land, especially unusual storms like this one, which has not acted like a standard cape Verde TC.
I think a lot can be learned from TCs that form in unusual locations, take unusual tracks or have multiple circulations like Maria, as they don't occor as often as more typical systems.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
000
URNT15 KNHC 142137
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 25 20110914
212730 2612N 06852W 8274 01675 0027 +175 +105 228023 024 009 001 00
212800 2611N 06850W 8272 01679 0029 +176 +104 229025 025 009 002 00
212830 2610N 06849W 8274 01677 0028 +181 +102 230027 028 012 001 00
212900 2609N 06848W 8272 01680 0028 +180 +101 229028 029 011 001 00
212930 2609N 06848W 8272 01680 0030 +180 +101 230027 027 014 000 00
213000 2606N 06845W 8274 01682 0032 +184 +100 232028 029 015 001 00
213030 2605N 06844W 8272 01683 0030 +185 +100 231030 031 013 001 00
213100 2604N 06843W 8272 01685 0031 +185 +100 232029 030 016 000 00
213130 2603N 06841W 8273 01685 0033 +185 +100 232029 029 017 002 00
213200 2601N 06840W 8273 01686 0035 +182 +101 230029 030 017 001 00
213230 2600N 06839W 8274 01686 0036 +184 +101 230032 032 018 001 00
213300 2559N 06837W 8273 01688 0039 +180 +101 230032 033 020 000 00
213330 2558N 06836W 8273 01691 0039 +183 +102 231031 032 017 002 00
213400 2557N 06835W 8273 01689 0038 +185 +102 232032 032 021 001 00
213430 2555N 06833W 8273 01689 0038 +185 +102 232032 032 023 001 00
213500 2554N 06832W 8273 01688 0038 +185 +102 234033 033 024 002 00
213530 2553N 06831W 8273 01687 0037 +181 +102 234034 034 025 001 03
213600 2552N 06830W 8274 01687 0038 +180 +102 235035 036 026 000 00
213630 2550N 06829W 8274 01687 0041 +180 +103 235036 036 024 003 00
213700 2549N 06828W 8273 01688 0040 +181 +103 235036 036 027 002 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 142137
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 25 20110914
212730 2612N 06852W 8274 01675 0027 +175 +105 228023 024 009 001 00
212800 2611N 06850W 8272 01679 0029 +176 +104 229025 025 009 002 00
212830 2610N 06849W 8274 01677 0028 +181 +102 230027 028 012 001 00
212900 2609N 06848W 8272 01680 0028 +180 +101 229028 029 011 001 00
212930 2609N 06848W 8272 01680 0030 +180 +101 230027 027 014 000 00
213000 2606N 06845W 8274 01682 0032 +184 +100 232028 029 015 001 00
213030 2605N 06844W 8272 01683 0030 +185 +100 231030 031 013 001 00
213100 2604N 06843W 8272 01685 0031 +185 +100 232029 030 016 000 00
213130 2603N 06841W 8273 01685 0033 +185 +100 232029 029 017 002 00
213200 2601N 06840W 8273 01686 0035 +182 +101 230029 030 017 001 00
213230 2600N 06839W 8274 01686 0036 +184 +101 230032 032 018 001 00
213300 2559N 06837W 8273 01688 0039 +180 +101 230032 033 020 000 00
213330 2558N 06836W 8273 01691 0039 +183 +102 231031 032 017 002 00
213400 2557N 06835W 8273 01689 0038 +185 +102 232032 032 021 001 00
213430 2555N 06833W 8273 01689 0038 +185 +102 232032 032 023 001 00
213500 2554N 06832W 8273 01688 0038 +185 +102 234033 033 024 002 00
213530 2553N 06831W 8273 01687 0037 +181 +102 234034 034 025 001 03
213600 2552N 06830W 8274 01687 0038 +180 +102 235035 036 026 000 00
213630 2550N 06829W 8274 01687 0041 +180 +103 235036 036 024 003 00
213700 2549N 06828W 8273 01688 0040 +181 +103 235036 036 027 002 00
$$
;
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 142047
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 20 20110914
203730 2818N 07031W 3867 07838 0418 -183 -207 223014 015 /// /// 03
203800 2815N 07030W 4090 07424 0398 -154 -207 233014 016 /// /// 03
203830 2812N 07028W 4322 07002 0372 -126 -205 265011 011 /// /// 03
203900 2810N 07027W 4561 06592 0345 -095 -199 292006 009 /// /// 03
203930 2807N 07026W 4809 06180 0321 -070 -191 309002 003 /// /// 03
204000 2805N 07025W 5070 05765 0295 -049 -182 352006 008 /// /// 03
204030 2802N 07024W 5341 05354 0270 -029 -172 014007 010 /// /// 03
204100 2800N 07023W 5619 04950 0101 -009 -154 096008 010 /// /// 03
204130 2758N 07022W 5914 04538 0099 +018 -136 096011 011 /// /// 03
204200 2755N 07021W 6220 04135 0111 +036 -123 125009 011 /// /// 03
204230 2753N 07019W 6540 03710 0108 +058 -104 149005 007 /// /// 03
204300 2751N 07018W 6875 03298 0111 +080 -091 137010 013 /// /// 03
204330 2749N 07017W 7221 02889 0113 +102 -071 119011 012 /// /// 03
204400 2747N 07017W 7582 02480 0124 +115 -056 107011 012 /// /// 03
204430 2745N 07016W 7958 02073 0130 +132 -037 100012 013 /// /// 03
204500 2742N 07015W 8251 01752 0119 +145 -019 099014 017 023 001 03
204530 2741N 07014W 8289 01712 0114 +146 -020 103017 017 022 003 00
204600 2739N 07013W 8257 01740 0106 +154 -124 101017 018 021 001 00
204630 2737N 07012W 8281 01718 0109 +151 -032 105015 016 021 001 00
204700 2736N 07012W 8274 01724 0109 +146 +015 110015 016 020 002 00
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142057
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 21 20110914
204730 2734N 07011W 8272 01726 0108 +145 +020 113016 016 020 001 00
204800 2733N 07010W 8273 01724 0107 +146 +020 111014 015 018 001 00
204830 2731N 07009W 8273 01724 0104 +150 +022 111015 015 016 001 00
204900 2729N 07009W 8274 01723 0102 +153 +023 109016 016 014 001 00
204930 2728N 07008W 8273 01721 0102 +153 +026 110016 017 016 001 00
205000 2726N 07007W 8273 01723 0099 +155 +028 108015 016 014 002 00
205030 2724N 07006W 8274 01721 0098 +155 +031 105014 014 018 001 00
205100 2723N 07006W 8272 01724 0099 +155 +033 101013 013 015 002 00
205130 2721N 07005W 8273 01721 0097 +155 +036 098012 012 017 002 00
205200 2719N 07004W 8274 01720 0097 +156 +038 096013 013 014 002 00
205230 2718N 07003W 8277 01719 0095 +161 +040 093013 014 015 002 00
205300 2716N 07003W 8274 01716 0091 +160 +042 088014 015 017 002 00
205330 2715N 07002W 8278 01715 0093 +159 +045 091016 017 014 003 00
205400 2713N 07001W 8270 01720 0091 +157 +047 095019 019 018 001 00
205430 2712N 07001W 8275 01714 0089 +160 +049 096017 017 015 002 00
205500 2710N 07000W 8274 01715 0087 +162 +051 091018 019 015 001 00
205530 2709N 06959W 8269 01720 0087 +160 +053 091020 021 013 002 00
205600 2707N 06959W 8272 01715 0083 +164 +055 084019 019 017 001 00
205630 2706N 06958W 8279 01710 0084 +162 +056 090019 020 016 002 03
205700 2705N 06957W 8269 01719 0083 +162 +057 090020 020 019 002 03
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142107
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 22 20110914
205730 2704N 06956W 8271 01715 0081 +165 +059 088019 020 019 002 00
205800 2702N 06954W 8274 01712 0078 +166 +060 083019 021 022 001 00
205830 2701N 06953W 8274 01710 0076 +169 +061 079020 021 023 002 00
205900 2700N 06952W 8277 01707 0073 +170 +062 078022 023 023 002 00
205930 2659N 06951W 8275 01708 0071 +172 +064 079024 024 019 003 03
210000 2658N 06949W 8272 01710 0066 +176 +065 083024 025 023 002 00
210030 2657N 06948W 8279 01703 0067 +171 +067 086024 025 020 003 03
210100 2655N 06948W 8273 01705 0065 +173 +069 083024 025 017 002 00
210130 2654N 06948W 8276 01699 0063 +172 +070 082022 023 024 001 00
210200 2652N 06947W 8274 01701 0061 +171 +072 079022 023 025 000 00
210230 2651N 06947W 8273 01702 0060 +172 +073 073023 023 022 003 00
210300 2649N 06946W 8274 01698 0058 +175 +073 069022 023 023 002 00
210330 2647N 06946W 8273 01699 0051 +184 +074 064019 021 023 001 00
210400 2646N 06945W 8273 01699 0052 +182 +075 064019 019 023 001 00
210430 2644N 06945W 8272 01698 0053 +179 +077 065020 020 023 001 00
210500 2642N 06944W 8274 01696 0052 +180 +078 064019 019 021 001 00
210530 2641N 06944W 8272 01697 0051 +179 +079 061018 019 021 001 03
210600 2639N 06943W 8275 01693 0052 +175 +080 058017 017 021 001 00
210630 2638N 06942W 8272 01696 0050 +177 +081 057017 017 020 001 00
210700 2636N 06942W 8270 01697 0049 +178 +082 054017 017 019 002 03
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142117
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 23 20110914
210730 2635N 06941W 8274 01692 0051 +172 +082 056016 016 020 002 00
210800 2633N 06940W 8277 01688 0051 +172 +083 057016 017 018 002 00
210830 2632N 06939W 8272 01692 0050 +171 +083 051015 015 018 002 00
210900 2631N 06937W 8273 01690 0047 +173 +083 046015 015 022 001 03
210930 2629N 06936W 8272 01690 0047 +170 +083 039014 015 023 001 03
211000 2628N 06935W 8277 01683 0044 +173 +083 032015 015 023 000 03
211030 2627N 06933W 8272 01688 0039 +179 +083 026014 015 024 001 03
211100 2626N 06932W 8275 01685 0040 +176 +083 020013 014 023 002 00
211130 2626N 06930W 8272 01685 0037 +179 +084 016013 013 022 002 03
211200 2625N 06928W 8273 01683 0033 +184 +084 015011 012 024 001 00
211230 2625N 06926W 8274 01682 0032 +183 +085 012011 011 024 000 03
211300 2625N 06925W 8272 01683 0030 +185 +086 010011 011 022 001 00
211330 2624N 06923W 8273 01680 0026 +189 +088 007011 012 022 001 00
211400 2624N 06921W 8274 01679 0021 +196 +089 349009 010 020 002 03
211430 2624N 06919W 8270 01681 0017 +199 +091 341008 008 021 002 00
211500 2625N 06917W 8275 01677 0021 +191 +093 351009 010 021 001 00
211530 2625N 06916W 8269 01682 0017 +195 +095 346009 009 013 001 00
211600 2626N 06914W 8274 01675 0019 +194 +097 336008 009 012 002 03
211630 2626N 06912W 8278 01671 0018 +193 +098 343010 010 009 002 00
211700 2627N 06910W 8275 01674 0014 +197 +099 342006 008 014 000 00
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142127
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 24 20110914
211730 2627N 06908W 8265 01680 0014 +193 +100 359002 003 005 002 00
211800 2628N 06907W 8279 01664 0018 +186 +101 099003 004 007 001 00
211830 2629N 06905W 8273 01671 0022 +179 +101 116005 005 007 002 00
211900 2629N 06903W 8273 01670 0019 +180 +101 141006 006 006 002 00
211930 2630N 06902W 8275 01668 0020 +178 +101 160007 008 024 002 00
212000 2631N 06900W 8268 01675 0021 +177 +100 161006 007 026 001 00
212030 2632N 06858W 8274 01669 0024 +174 +099 166009 009 025 003 03
212100 2631N 06857W 8274 01670 0027 +169 +098 178008 009 /// /// 03
212130 2630N 06856W 8270 01676 0026 +174 +097 180007 009 015 002 03
212200 2628N 06856W 8274 01671 0028 +171 +096 178008 009 008 001 00
212230 2626N 06856W 8271 01675 0031 +165 +095 170009 010 005 001 00
212300 2625N 06856W 8275 01671 0031 +169 +095 185006 007 007 000 03
212330 2623N 06857W 8268 01677 0030 +167 +095 212007 009 007 001 03
212400 2622N 06857W 8275 01671 0029 +172 +096 239010 011 006 001 00
212430 2620N 06856W 8275 01672 0029 +171 +097 239012 013 006 001 03
212500 2618N 06857W 8268 01681 0027 +175 +099 244015 016 007 000 03
212530 2617N 06857W 8275 01674 0025 +180 +101 237018 018 000 002 03
212600 2616N 06856W 8272 01677 0024 +181 +103 232020 020 005 001 00
212630 2614N 06854W 8274 01674 0023 +180 +105 227021 021 008 001 00
212700 2613N 06853W 8272 01676 0026 +175 +105 228022 022 010 000 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 142047
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 20 20110914
203730 2818N 07031W 3867 07838 0418 -183 -207 223014 015 /// /// 03
203800 2815N 07030W 4090 07424 0398 -154 -207 233014 016 /// /// 03
203830 2812N 07028W 4322 07002 0372 -126 -205 265011 011 /// /// 03
203900 2810N 07027W 4561 06592 0345 -095 -199 292006 009 /// /// 03
203930 2807N 07026W 4809 06180 0321 -070 -191 309002 003 /// /// 03
204000 2805N 07025W 5070 05765 0295 -049 -182 352006 008 /// /// 03
204030 2802N 07024W 5341 05354 0270 -029 -172 014007 010 /// /// 03
204100 2800N 07023W 5619 04950 0101 -009 -154 096008 010 /// /// 03
204130 2758N 07022W 5914 04538 0099 +018 -136 096011 011 /// /// 03
204200 2755N 07021W 6220 04135 0111 +036 -123 125009 011 /// /// 03
204230 2753N 07019W 6540 03710 0108 +058 -104 149005 007 /// /// 03
204300 2751N 07018W 6875 03298 0111 +080 -091 137010 013 /// /// 03
204330 2749N 07017W 7221 02889 0113 +102 -071 119011 012 /// /// 03
204400 2747N 07017W 7582 02480 0124 +115 -056 107011 012 /// /// 03
204430 2745N 07016W 7958 02073 0130 +132 -037 100012 013 /// /// 03
204500 2742N 07015W 8251 01752 0119 +145 -019 099014 017 023 001 03
204530 2741N 07014W 8289 01712 0114 +146 -020 103017 017 022 003 00
204600 2739N 07013W 8257 01740 0106 +154 -124 101017 018 021 001 00
204630 2737N 07012W 8281 01718 0109 +151 -032 105015 016 021 001 00
204700 2736N 07012W 8274 01724 0109 +146 +015 110015 016 020 002 00
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142057
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 21 20110914
204730 2734N 07011W 8272 01726 0108 +145 +020 113016 016 020 001 00
204800 2733N 07010W 8273 01724 0107 +146 +020 111014 015 018 001 00
204830 2731N 07009W 8273 01724 0104 +150 +022 111015 015 016 001 00
204900 2729N 07009W 8274 01723 0102 +153 +023 109016 016 014 001 00
204930 2728N 07008W 8273 01721 0102 +153 +026 110016 017 016 001 00
205000 2726N 07007W 8273 01723 0099 +155 +028 108015 016 014 002 00
205030 2724N 07006W 8274 01721 0098 +155 +031 105014 014 018 001 00
205100 2723N 07006W 8272 01724 0099 +155 +033 101013 013 015 002 00
205130 2721N 07005W 8273 01721 0097 +155 +036 098012 012 017 002 00
205200 2719N 07004W 8274 01720 0097 +156 +038 096013 013 014 002 00
205230 2718N 07003W 8277 01719 0095 +161 +040 093013 014 015 002 00
205300 2716N 07003W 8274 01716 0091 +160 +042 088014 015 017 002 00
205330 2715N 07002W 8278 01715 0093 +159 +045 091016 017 014 003 00
205400 2713N 07001W 8270 01720 0091 +157 +047 095019 019 018 001 00
205430 2712N 07001W 8275 01714 0089 +160 +049 096017 017 015 002 00
205500 2710N 07000W 8274 01715 0087 +162 +051 091018 019 015 001 00
205530 2709N 06959W 8269 01720 0087 +160 +053 091020 021 013 002 00
205600 2707N 06959W 8272 01715 0083 +164 +055 084019 019 017 001 00
205630 2706N 06958W 8279 01710 0084 +162 +056 090019 020 016 002 03
205700 2705N 06957W 8269 01719 0083 +162 +057 090020 020 019 002 03
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142107
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 22 20110914
205730 2704N 06956W 8271 01715 0081 +165 +059 088019 020 019 002 00
205800 2702N 06954W 8274 01712 0078 +166 +060 083019 021 022 001 00
205830 2701N 06953W 8274 01710 0076 +169 +061 079020 021 023 002 00
205900 2700N 06952W 8277 01707 0073 +170 +062 078022 023 023 002 00
205930 2659N 06951W 8275 01708 0071 +172 +064 079024 024 019 003 03
210000 2658N 06949W 8272 01710 0066 +176 +065 083024 025 023 002 00
210030 2657N 06948W 8279 01703 0067 +171 +067 086024 025 020 003 03
210100 2655N 06948W 8273 01705 0065 +173 +069 083024 025 017 002 00
210130 2654N 06948W 8276 01699 0063 +172 +070 082022 023 024 001 00
210200 2652N 06947W 8274 01701 0061 +171 +072 079022 023 025 000 00
210230 2651N 06947W 8273 01702 0060 +172 +073 073023 023 022 003 00
210300 2649N 06946W 8274 01698 0058 +175 +073 069022 023 023 002 00
210330 2647N 06946W 8273 01699 0051 +184 +074 064019 021 023 001 00
210400 2646N 06945W 8273 01699 0052 +182 +075 064019 019 023 001 00
210430 2644N 06945W 8272 01698 0053 +179 +077 065020 020 023 001 00
210500 2642N 06944W 8274 01696 0052 +180 +078 064019 019 021 001 00
210530 2641N 06944W 8272 01697 0051 +179 +079 061018 019 021 001 03
210600 2639N 06943W 8275 01693 0052 +175 +080 058017 017 021 001 00
210630 2638N 06942W 8272 01696 0050 +177 +081 057017 017 020 001 00
210700 2636N 06942W 8270 01697 0049 +178 +082 054017 017 019 002 03
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142117
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 23 20110914
210730 2635N 06941W 8274 01692 0051 +172 +082 056016 016 020 002 00
210800 2633N 06940W 8277 01688 0051 +172 +083 057016 017 018 002 00
210830 2632N 06939W 8272 01692 0050 +171 +083 051015 015 018 002 00
210900 2631N 06937W 8273 01690 0047 +173 +083 046015 015 022 001 03
210930 2629N 06936W 8272 01690 0047 +170 +083 039014 015 023 001 03
211000 2628N 06935W 8277 01683 0044 +173 +083 032015 015 023 000 03
211030 2627N 06933W 8272 01688 0039 +179 +083 026014 015 024 001 03
211100 2626N 06932W 8275 01685 0040 +176 +083 020013 014 023 002 00
211130 2626N 06930W 8272 01685 0037 +179 +084 016013 013 022 002 03
211200 2625N 06928W 8273 01683 0033 +184 +084 015011 012 024 001 00
211230 2625N 06926W 8274 01682 0032 +183 +085 012011 011 024 000 03
211300 2625N 06925W 8272 01683 0030 +185 +086 010011 011 022 001 00
211330 2624N 06923W 8273 01680 0026 +189 +088 007011 012 022 001 00
211400 2624N 06921W 8274 01679 0021 +196 +089 349009 010 020 002 03
211430 2624N 06919W 8270 01681 0017 +199 +091 341008 008 021 002 00
211500 2625N 06917W 8275 01677 0021 +191 +093 351009 010 021 001 00
211530 2625N 06916W 8269 01682 0017 +195 +095 346009 009 013 001 00
211600 2626N 06914W 8274 01675 0019 +194 +097 336008 009 012 002 03
211630 2626N 06912W 8278 01671 0018 +193 +098 343010 010 009 002 00
211700 2627N 06910W 8275 01674 0014 +197 +099 342006 008 014 000 00
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142127
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 24 20110914
211730 2627N 06908W 8265 01680 0014 +193 +100 359002 003 005 002 00
211800 2628N 06907W 8279 01664 0018 +186 +101 099003 004 007 001 00
211830 2629N 06905W 8273 01671 0022 +179 +101 116005 005 007 002 00
211900 2629N 06903W 8273 01670 0019 +180 +101 141006 006 006 002 00
211930 2630N 06902W 8275 01668 0020 +178 +101 160007 008 024 002 00
212000 2631N 06900W 8268 01675 0021 +177 +100 161006 007 026 001 00
212030 2632N 06858W 8274 01669 0024 +174 +099 166009 009 025 003 03
212100 2631N 06857W 8274 01670 0027 +169 +098 178008 009 /// /// 03
212130 2630N 06856W 8270 01676 0026 +174 +097 180007 009 015 002 03
212200 2628N 06856W 8274 01671 0028 +171 +096 178008 009 008 001 00
212230 2626N 06856W 8271 01675 0031 +165 +095 170009 010 005 001 00
212300 2625N 06856W 8275 01671 0031 +169 +095 185006 007 007 000 03
212330 2623N 06857W 8268 01677 0030 +167 +095 212007 009 007 001 03
212400 2622N 06857W 8275 01671 0029 +172 +096 239010 011 006 001 00
212430 2620N 06856W 8275 01672 0029 +171 +097 239012 013 006 001 03
212500 2618N 06857W 8268 01681 0027 +175 +099 244015 016 007 000 03
212530 2617N 06857W 8275 01674 0025 +180 +101 237018 018 000 002 03
212600 2616N 06856W 8272 01677 0024 +181 +103 232020 020 005 001 00
212630 2614N 06854W 8274 01674 0023 +180 +105 227021 021 008 001 00
212700 2613N 06853W 8272 01676 0026 +175 +105 228022 022 010 000 00
$$
;
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craptacular
- Category 2
- Posts: 574
- Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
- Location: The Mad City, WI
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
000
URNT15 KNHC 142147
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 26 20110914
213730 2548N 06827W 8275 01687 0039 +183 +102 233038 039 028 001 00
213800 2546N 06826W 8272 01691 0040 +180 +102 235039 040 026 001 00
213830 2545N 06824W 8273 01693 0047 +177 +102 239040 040 038 006 00
213900 2544N 06823W 8266 01704 0059 +160 +103 232041 042 037 008 00
213930 2543N 06822W 8271 01693 0055 +164 +101 227040 041 033 004 03
214000 2542N 06820W 8276 01691 0055 +168 +097 227040 041 036 005 00
214030 2542N 06818W 8274 01693 0054 +170 +094 227042 042 036 004 03
214100 2541N 06816W 8268 01702 0057 +169 +093 227042 042 038 003 03
214130 2540N 06815W 8267 01702 0055 +170 +092 231043 045 039 004 00
214200 2538N 06814W 8277 01692 0064 +159 +091 228047 048 041 005 00
214230 2537N 06813W 8274 01692 0064 +159 +089 220049 050 041 004 03
214300 2536N 06812W 8269 01702 0063 +164 +087 219048 049 041 004 03
214330 2535N 06811W 8272 01699 0064 +162 +085 218050 052 044 010 00
214400 2534N 06809W 8277 01689 0070 +150 +085 223052 055 048 020 00
214430 2533N 06808W 8268 01702 0077 +143 +085 221056 059 049 018 00
214500 2532N 06807W 8274 01695 0076 +143 +082 216055 057 043 015 00
214530 2530N 06806W 8267 01704 0078 +142 +079 219052 054 044 014 00
214600 2529N 06805W 8272 01698 0071 +154 +077 221057 061 047 012 00
214630 2528N 06803W 8272 01699 0068 +160 +075 227060 061 045 007 00
214700 2527N 06802W 8265 01713 0075 +156 +075 219056 064 048 012 00
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142157
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 27 20110914
214730 2526N 06801W 8276 01698 0078 +146 +076 216062 066 049 014 00
214800 2525N 06800W 8262 01710 0081 +141 +076 218058 059 056 019 00
214830 2524N 06759W 8265 01706 0081 +139 +075 216058 061 052 023 03
214900 2523N 06758W 8282 01694 0084 +136 +074 221064 067 055 013 00
214930 2521N 06758W 8274 01706 0077 +150 +073 217062 064 054 011 00
215000 2520N 06757W 8268 01706 0077 +150 +072 216062 063 052 010 00
215030 2519N 06756W 8278 01699 0077 +152 +071 213061 061 055 007 00
215100 2518N 06756W 8274 01706 0080 +155 +072 211061 062 052 008 00
215130 2517N 06755W 8273 01711 0082 +155 +073 209059 059 050 008 00
215200 2515N 06754W 8278 01705 0081 +158 +075 210058 059 050 006 00
215230 2515N 06752W 8276 01709 0083 +158 +077 211057 058 047 006 03
215300 2514N 06751W 8268 01721 0089 +153 +078 210059 061 045 005 00
215330 2514N 06749W 8275 01714 0091 +151 +079 206057 058 047 006 03
215400 2513N 06747W 8272 01717 0090 +153 +079 205057 058 047 005 00
215430 2512N 06746W 8277 01712 0093 +150 +079 203058 059 047 006 00
215500 2511N 06745W 8272 01717 0097 +146 +078 203057 057 050 005 00
215530 2510N 06744W 8278 01716 0096 +151 +078 206056 057 045 005 00
215600 2509N 06743W 8276 01721 0095 +157 +076 206056 056 045 004 00
215630 2508N 06741W 8268 01727 0093 +159 +076 206055 056 044 005 00
215700 2507N 06740W 8277 01719 0098 +155 +078 208054 054 044 005 00
$$
;
67 kt FL, 56 kt SFMR
URNT15 KNHC 142147
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 26 20110914
213730 2548N 06827W 8275 01687 0039 +183 +102 233038 039 028 001 00
213800 2546N 06826W 8272 01691 0040 +180 +102 235039 040 026 001 00
213830 2545N 06824W 8273 01693 0047 +177 +102 239040 040 038 006 00
213900 2544N 06823W 8266 01704 0059 +160 +103 232041 042 037 008 00
213930 2543N 06822W 8271 01693 0055 +164 +101 227040 041 033 004 03
214000 2542N 06820W 8276 01691 0055 +168 +097 227040 041 036 005 00
214030 2542N 06818W 8274 01693 0054 +170 +094 227042 042 036 004 03
214100 2541N 06816W 8268 01702 0057 +169 +093 227042 042 038 003 03
214130 2540N 06815W 8267 01702 0055 +170 +092 231043 045 039 004 00
214200 2538N 06814W 8277 01692 0064 +159 +091 228047 048 041 005 00
214230 2537N 06813W 8274 01692 0064 +159 +089 220049 050 041 004 03
214300 2536N 06812W 8269 01702 0063 +164 +087 219048 049 041 004 03
214330 2535N 06811W 8272 01699 0064 +162 +085 218050 052 044 010 00
214400 2534N 06809W 8277 01689 0070 +150 +085 223052 055 048 020 00
214430 2533N 06808W 8268 01702 0077 +143 +085 221056 059 049 018 00
214500 2532N 06807W 8274 01695 0076 +143 +082 216055 057 043 015 00
214530 2530N 06806W 8267 01704 0078 +142 +079 219052 054 044 014 00
214600 2529N 06805W 8272 01698 0071 +154 +077 221057 061 047 012 00
214630 2528N 06803W 8272 01699 0068 +160 +075 227060 061 045 007 00
214700 2527N 06802W 8265 01713 0075 +156 +075 219056 064 048 012 00
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 142157
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 27 20110914
214730 2526N 06801W 8276 01698 0078 +146 +076 216062 066 049 014 00
214800 2525N 06800W 8262 01710 0081 +141 +076 218058 059 056 019 00
214830 2524N 06759W 8265 01706 0081 +139 +075 216058 061 052 023 03
214900 2523N 06758W 8282 01694 0084 +136 +074 221064 067 055 013 00
214930 2521N 06758W 8274 01706 0077 +150 +073 217062 064 054 011 00
215000 2520N 06757W 8268 01706 0077 +150 +072 216062 063 052 010 00
215030 2519N 06756W 8278 01699 0077 +152 +071 213061 061 055 007 00
215100 2518N 06756W 8274 01706 0080 +155 +072 211061 062 052 008 00
215130 2517N 06755W 8273 01711 0082 +155 +073 209059 059 050 008 00
215200 2515N 06754W 8278 01705 0081 +158 +075 210058 059 050 006 00
215230 2515N 06752W 8276 01709 0083 +158 +077 211057 058 047 006 03
215300 2514N 06751W 8268 01721 0089 +153 +078 210059 061 045 005 00
215330 2514N 06749W 8275 01714 0091 +151 +079 206057 058 047 006 03
215400 2513N 06747W 8272 01717 0090 +153 +079 205057 058 047 005 00
215430 2512N 06746W 8277 01712 0093 +150 +079 203058 059 047 006 00
215500 2511N 06745W 8272 01717 0097 +146 +078 203057 057 050 005 00
215530 2510N 06744W 8278 01716 0096 +151 +078 206056 057 045 005 00
215600 2509N 06743W 8276 01721 0095 +157 +076 206056 056 045 004 00
215630 2508N 06741W 8268 01727 0093 +159 +076 206055 056 044 005 00
215700 2507N 06740W 8277 01719 0098 +155 +078 208054 054 044 005 00
$$
;
67 kt FL, 56 kt SFMR
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Sep 14, 2011 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
000
URNT15 KNHC 142207
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 28 20110914
215730 2506N 06739W 8285 01716 0111 +138 +079 203057 062 043 009 00
215800 2505N 06738W 8276 01725 0110 +143 +079 201057 058 042 010 00
215830 2504N 06737W 8268 01732 0111 +143 +078 201061 063 043 009 03
215900 2503N 06737W 8277 01723 0115 +138 +077 201064 064 042 009 00
215930 2502N 06736W 8270 01730 0117 +134 +075 198062 063 039 007 00
220000 2501N 06735W 8272 01725 0110 +140 +074 194061 062 041 007 00
220030 2459N 06735W 8274 01725 0104 +151 +072 191058 060 043 005 00
220100 2458N 06734W 8275 01726 0105 +154 +071 185060 061 045 006 00
220130 2457N 06733W 8271 01731 0104 +155 +071 187061 061 044 006 03
220200 2456N 06732W 8267 01738 0112 +147 +071 189058 060 041 007 00
220230 2455N 06731W 8269 01733 0114 +144 +071 189052 054 040 013 00
220300 2455N 06730W 8294 01712 0121 +141 +072 189055 056 042 009 00
220330 2454N 06729W 8262 01749 0118 +146 +071 187053 055 041 011 00
220400 2453N 06728W 8261 01749 0126 +135 +070 188054 056 043 012 00
220430 2452N 06727W 8272 01737 0131 +129 +069 191055 056 042 010 00
220500 2451N 06725W 8274 01739 0135 +130 +067 188057 057 041 011 00
220530 2450N 06724W 8279 01732 0132 +129 +065 185057 058 041 010 00
220600 2449N 06723W 8268 01744 0130 +134 +063 187056 057 039 010 00
220630 2448N 06722W 8278 01734 0126 +141 +062 187055 056 038 010 00
220700 2447N 06721W 8269 01744 0127 +141 +061 188055 055 038 009 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 142207
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 28 20110914
215730 2506N 06739W 8285 01716 0111 +138 +079 203057 062 043 009 00
215800 2505N 06738W 8276 01725 0110 +143 +079 201057 058 042 010 00
215830 2504N 06737W 8268 01732 0111 +143 +078 201061 063 043 009 03
215900 2503N 06737W 8277 01723 0115 +138 +077 201064 064 042 009 00
215930 2502N 06736W 8270 01730 0117 +134 +075 198062 063 039 007 00
220000 2501N 06735W 8272 01725 0110 +140 +074 194061 062 041 007 00
220030 2459N 06735W 8274 01725 0104 +151 +072 191058 060 043 005 00
220100 2458N 06734W 8275 01726 0105 +154 +071 185060 061 045 006 00
220130 2457N 06733W 8271 01731 0104 +155 +071 187061 061 044 006 03
220200 2456N 06732W 8267 01738 0112 +147 +071 189058 060 041 007 00
220230 2455N 06731W 8269 01733 0114 +144 +071 189052 054 040 013 00
220300 2455N 06730W 8294 01712 0121 +141 +072 189055 056 042 009 00
220330 2454N 06729W 8262 01749 0118 +146 +071 187053 055 041 011 00
220400 2453N 06728W 8261 01749 0126 +135 +070 188054 056 043 012 00
220430 2452N 06727W 8272 01737 0131 +129 +069 191055 056 042 010 00
220500 2451N 06725W 8274 01739 0135 +130 +067 188057 057 041 011 00
220530 2450N 06724W 8279 01732 0132 +129 +065 185057 058 041 010 00
220600 2449N 06723W 8268 01744 0130 +134 +063 187056 057 039 010 00
220630 2448N 06722W 8278 01734 0126 +141 +062 187055 056 038 010 00
220700 2447N 06721W 8269 01744 0127 +141 +061 188055 055 038 009 00
$$
;
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Chris_in_Tampa
- Category 5
- Posts: 4963
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
- Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
Through HDOB 27, with 11AM and 5PM EDT NHC tracks:
Just posting one image.
Just posting one image.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33393
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
000
URNT15 KNHC 142217
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 29 20110914
220730 2447N 06720W 8274 01738 0128 +140 +062 188054 055 038 010 00
220800 2446N 06719W 8276 01740 0128 +142 +063 188053 054 038 010 00
220830 2445N 06718W 8269 01748 0130 +141 +064 188053 053 037 010 00
220900 2444N 06716W 8274 01743 0133 +140 +065 188052 053 035 011 00
220930 2443N 06715W 8273 01744 0134 +138 +066 188052 053 037 009 00
221000 2442N 06714W 8275 01743 0131 +143 +067 187052 053 036 009 00
221030 2441N 06713W 8282 01740 0132 +146 +068 189052 053 036 009 03
221100 2442N 06711W 8269 01750 0129 +148 +070 185054 054 /// /// 03
221130 2444N 06711W 8267 01753 0129 +147 +073 183051 053 /// /// 03
221200 2446N 06712W 8272 01742 0125 +146 +076 183052 053 037 012 03
221230 2448N 06712W 8272 01740 0122 +146 +077 184054 055 037 012 00
221300 2450N 06712W 8274 01737 0120 +148 +077 183055 055 038 013 00
221330 2452N 06712W 8272 01738 0119 +150 +077 184055 056 038 011 00
221400 2454N 06713W 8274 01736 0121 +145 +076 184054 054 037 011 00
221430 2456N 06713W 8273 01737 0120 +144 +076 182055 056 038 009 00
221500 2458N 06713W 8272 01739 0116 +152 +076 182057 057 039 008 00
221530 2500N 06713W 8274 01736 0117 +149 +076 183058 058 038 009 00
221600 2503N 06713W 8274 01733 0117 +147 +076 182059 059 040 009 00
221630 2505N 06713W 8274 01733 0114 +145 +075 182060 061 043 010 00
221700 2507N 06714W 8272 01730 0110 +148 +074 180062 063 043 010 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 142217
AF305 0714A MARIA HDOB 29 20110914
220730 2447N 06720W 8274 01738 0128 +140 +062 188054 055 038 010 00
220800 2446N 06719W 8276 01740 0128 +142 +063 188053 054 038 010 00
220830 2445N 06718W 8269 01748 0130 +141 +064 188053 053 037 010 00
220900 2444N 06716W 8274 01743 0133 +140 +065 188052 053 035 011 00
220930 2443N 06715W 8273 01744 0134 +138 +066 188052 053 037 009 00
221000 2442N 06714W 8275 01743 0131 +143 +067 187052 053 036 009 00
221030 2441N 06713W 8282 01740 0132 +146 +068 189052 053 036 009 03
221100 2442N 06711W 8269 01750 0129 +148 +070 185054 054 /// /// 03
221130 2444N 06711W 8267 01753 0129 +147 +073 183051 053 /// /// 03
221200 2446N 06712W 8272 01742 0125 +146 +076 183052 053 037 012 03
221230 2448N 06712W 8272 01740 0122 +146 +077 184054 055 037 012 00
221300 2450N 06712W 8274 01737 0120 +148 +077 183055 055 038 013 00
221330 2452N 06712W 8272 01738 0119 +150 +077 184055 056 038 011 00
221400 2454N 06713W 8274 01736 0121 +145 +076 184054 054 037 011 00
221430 2456N 06713W 8273 01737 0120 +144 +076 182055 056 038 009 00
221500 2458N 06713W 8272 01739 0116 +152 +076 182057 057 039 008 00
221530 2500N 06713W 8274 01736 0117 +149 +076 183058 058 038 009 00
221600 2503N 06713W 8274 01733 0117 +147 +076 182059 059 040 009 00
221630 2505N 06713W 8274 01733 0114 +145 +075 182060 061 043 010 00
221700 2507N 06714W 8272 01730 0110 +148 +074 180062 063 043 010 00
$$
;
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craptacular
- Category 2
- Posts: 574
- Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
- Location: The Mad City, WI
URNT12 KNHC 142216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 14/21:17:30Z
B. 26 deg 27 min N
069 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1440 m
D. 24 kt
E. 303 deg 42 nm
F. 083 deg 25 kt
G. 306 deg 45 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 17 C / 1674 m
J. 20 C / 1678 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0714A MARIA OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 21:49:00Z
SFC CNTR 160 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 255 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 14/21:17:30Z
B. 26 deg 27 min N
069 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1440 m
D. 24 kt
E. 303 deg 42 nm
F. 083 deg 25 kt
G. 306 deg 45 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 17 C / 1674 m
J. 20 C / 1678 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0714A MARIA OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 21:49:00Z
SFC CNTR 160 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 255 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
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