WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

[StormingB81]

so is it going to take a wider circle or go up north

[RobWESTPACWX]

Brian, you are just having a bad day arent you.

[StormingB81]

I am...lol..The Seminoles lost, my kid got pneamonia(sp?)..this storm cant just do something and got on with its day....lol

[StormingB81]

I think it may just stay there and fizzle out I mean ever time I look teh wind disappears and there is nothing....

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well I really hope since JTWC has it pointing directly at Yoko right now as a typhoon, go figure right?

[dexterlabio]

Yeah I remember previous runs from euro consistently show this stalling near Okinawa before turning north. It appears they were right. Oh the reasons that make me like euro.

[StormingB81]

movin NW now..with that one little circle on the wing map..prolly not happening but if it took that loop and it ud after being put in tccor 4...someone is in trouble...

[StormingB81]

I am sure it wil turn again however this storm is headed west...how ironic would that be

[StormingB81]

The question is is how long until we go to TCCOR>..I thought it would turn now..probably still will just giving us a scare...but then again with this storm soemone I wont be suprised if it does hit

[StormingB81]

go figure I type it look at JMA and it says it moved a little north in the last hour

[StormingB81]

Now I know we have had more winds today then the last couple of days..wind gust up to 35 mph..but I think the following forecast is a typo..lol

Text: TEMPO 1915/1921 6000 -SHRA BKN010 T30/2001Z T27/1920Z 190705
Forecast period: 1500 to 2100 UTC 19 September 2011
Forecast type: TEMPORARY: The following changes expected for less than half the time period
Winds: from the S (190 degrees) at [b]293 MPH (255 knots; 132.6 m/s) [/b]Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: -SHRA (light rain showers)

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1115 ROKE (1115)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 27.7N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 29.2N 131.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 210600UTC 32.7N 135.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 220600UTC 42.3N 145.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

JMA still forecasting a typhoon.

[euro6208]

a nice eye

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 27.7N 130.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 130.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.8N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 29.9N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.0N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 35.4N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 46.4N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 28.0N 130.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (ROKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CHAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
190548Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTERD BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IT ALSO SHOWS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS WEAKENED AND ALLOWED
TS 18W TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW TS 18W TO RECURVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES
INTO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO. TS 18W WILL
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS OVER BUT SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND
200900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


been a typhoon for so long but still jtwc and jma doesn't want to upgrade to typhoon...no need to upgrade, this is already a typhoon...

[phwxenthusiast]

let's see what Kikaijima reports later on... the eyewall should pass within 50km there and right now, they're reporting around 75kph sustained-still not typhoon-force but it has increased compared to an hour ago...

[phwxenthusiast]

Just seen the latest IR, got an eye on it lol... MWI still depicts open eyewall on the SW quadrant but still, should be 65kts now imo...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1115 ROKE (1115)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 28.0N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 29.6N 131.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 210600UTC 32.7N 135.8E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 220600UTC 42.3N 145.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 31KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[HURAKAN]

well-defined eye now visible on infrared

[RobWESTPACWX]

Very well defined.

[Chacor]

Worth noting that JMA are doing hourly warnings as there is a Japan threat.