ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 171849
97779 18474 20231 85500 03600 17010 23239 /0005
41315
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 10
SWS = 24 KTS
;

[Dave]

Here is HDOB 16 that was left out above:

Code: Select all

000
URNT15 KNHC 171838
AF307 01JJA INVEST             HDOB 16 20111017
181730 2300N 08700W 9879 00146 0044 +256 +233 145015 015 020 000 00
181800 2300N 08658W 9876 00148 0043 +255 +236 143014 015 020 000 00
181830 2300N 08657W 9878 00146 0043 +255 +235 145014 015 021 000 00
181900 2300N 08655W 9877 00147 0043 +255 +237 142014 015 021 000 00
181930 2300N 08654W 9876 00148 0043 +255 +238 145013 014 021 000 00
182000 2300N 08652W 9876 00147 0043 +255 +240 143012 012 022 000 00
182030 2300N 08650W 9874 00150 0044 +255 +240 135013 015 026 001 00
182100 2300N 08649W 9877 00146 0043 +255 +240 130013 014 021 000 00
182130 2300N 08647W 9877 00147 0044 +254 +244 122012 013 021 000 00
182200 2300N 08646W 9876 00149 0044 +251 +246 125011 013 021 000 00
182230 2300N 08644W 9875 00149 0044 +250 +247 118014 016 026 001 00
182300 2300N 08642W 9878 00145 0043 +250 +246 110015 015 023 001 00
182330 2300N 08641W 9879 00145 0044 +250 +246 111014 015 022 000 00
182400 2300N 08639W 9879 00146 0045 +250 +245 111013 014 022 000 00
182430 2300N 08638W 9876 00149 0045 +250 +244 114013 013 022 000 00
182500 2300N 08636W 9876 00150 0045 +250 +244 118013 014 022 000 00
182530 2300N 08634W 9876 00149 0045 +250 +243 119014 014 021 000 00
182600 2300N 08633W 9878 00148 0045 +250 +241 116014 014 020 000 00
182630 2300N 08631W 9877 00148 0046 +250 +240 115013 014 021 000 00
182700 2300N 08630W 9877 00150 0046 +250 +241 112012 012 020 000 00
$$
;




[Dean4Storms]

12z models look very non committed to development. Heck, most seem to move just a broad area of low pressure toward the eastern FL Panhandle. I'm thinking the strongest winds might end up just off our coast with a strong offshore wind with the increase in the pressure gradient behind the front while most of the rain hits the peninsula to the east.

[Dave]

[westwind]

sorry Dave I was away I thought you had taken over. I can post obs now though.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 171857
97779 18554 20236 85418 03600 17023 23219 /0006
41630
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 11
SWS = 29 KTS
;

[Dave]

sorry Dave I was away I thought you had taken over. I can post obs now though.

Go ahead westwind...pick up hdobs if you want. Thanks!

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171907
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 20 20111017
185730 2341N 08520W 9693 00323 //// +203 //// 158022 026 053 052 05
185800 2343N 08519W 9718 00300 0057 +229 //// 147011 012 033 008 01
185830 2344N 08519W 9696 00321 0058 +229 //// 145012 013 023 001 01
185900 2346N 08519W 9701 00316 0058 +230 //// 148013 013 020 001 01
185930 2347N 08518W 9702 00316 0058 +230 //// 153013 014 021 000 01
190000 2349N 08518W 9699 00320 0059 +230 //// 156014 014 022 000 01
190030 2351N 08517W 9701 00318 0060 +225 //// 158014 015 024 002 01
190100 2352N 08517W 9699 00319 0060 +224 //// 164015 016 026 002 01
190130 2352N 08517W 9699 00319 0061 +221 //// 165017 018 027 001 01
190200 2355N 08516W 9699 00320 0060 +228 //// 167017 017 027 000 01
190230 2357N 08516W 9700 00319 0059 +231 //// 170017 017 027 000 05
190300 2359N 08515W 9699 00319 0059 +232 +229 172017 017 028 001 00
190330 2400N 08515W 9698 00320 0059 +231 +228 168016 017 027 001 00
190400 2402N 08515W 9703 00315 0058 +232 +229 159015 016 028 003 00
190430 2404N 08514W 9699 00319 0058 +230 //// 160016 017 031 004 01
190500 2405N 08514W 9698 00319 0058 +229 //// 161017 018 032 002 01
190530 2407N 08513W 9703 00315 0058 +230 //// 158019 020 030 002 01
190600 2409N 08513W 9704 00315 0058 +229 //// 149020 021 028 000 01
190630 2410N 08513W 9697 00319 0058 +220 //// 146019 021 037 004 05
190700 2412N 08512W 9701 00317 0058 +227 //// 139020 022 029 004 01
$$
;

[wxman57]

I call bones for 2011. Will be a nice rainy day tomorrow...

Bones says he's not impressed with what he's observing out there across the tropics. But there could still be something that develops over the next 2-3 weeks, maybe well out to sea north of the Caribbean.

[Dave]

[Rainband]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
ALL EYES CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE LOW...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL FOUND
YET. EITHER WAY WE WILL STILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
THIS LOW NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE PENINSULA DURING TUESDAY. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRECEDE THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT WITH THE SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH
DURING TUESDAY AND THEN THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTH THROUGH FORT MYERS. NO MATTER WHAT THOUGH
IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WHICH WILL PUSH THE OCTOBER TOTALS WELL ABOVE THE 2.25 TO 3.5
INCHES THAT IS NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ALSO
THERE IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING TO SEE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH
AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TIDES SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SHOULD NOT CAUSE BIG PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY
IN THE EVENING. THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 171912
97779 19114 20244 85118 03700 13031 24229 /0006
41535
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 12
SWS = 31 KTS
;

[sandyb]

yall in the Tampa area have our old weatherman Bobby Deskins we really miss him up here in NC any of yall ever watch him? i know off subject but I know hes talking about this system and hes really smart

[psyclone]

40% looks to be about 39% too high. Still, you have a big slug of tropical moisture surging toward florida. interesting weather is on the way even if it's not tropical in nature. If this kind of moisture were pooling in advance of a front in the winter, i'd be interested.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171917
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 21 20111017
190730 2414N 08512W 9699 00319 0059 +232 //// 139022 023 026 000 01
190800 2415N 08511W 9703 00315 0059 +230 //// 138023 024 028 000 01
190830 2417N 08511W 9699 00319 0059 +230 //// 137022 023 027 001 01
190900 2418N 08510W 9701 00318 0058 +232 //// 136024 024 027 000 01
190930 2420N 08510W 9697 00321 0059 +230 //// 138024 025 028 000 01
191000 2422N 08510W 9703 00315 0059 +230 //// 136028 029 030 000 05
191030 2423N 08509W 9706 00314 0059 +230 //// 137030 030 031 000 01
191100 2425N 08509W 9702 00318 0058 +235 +227 138029 029 032 000 00
191130 2427N 08508W 9702 00316 0058 +239 +217 132032 033 032 000 00
191200 2428N 08508W 9700 00318 0057 +242 +211 132030 031 031 000 00
191230 2430N 08508W 9700 00317 0056 +246 +209 135032 033 031 000 00
191300 2432N 08507W 9698 00321 0057 +242 +208 136031 033 031 001 00
191330 2433N 08507W 9702 00317 0060 +236 +199 132031 032 031 000 00
191400 2435N 08506W 9700 00320 0061 +233 +203 131031 032 031 000 00
191430 2436N 08506W 9700 00321 0063 +226 //// 132030 031 031 000 01
191500 2438N 08506W 9703 00318 0063 +227 //// 134030 032 031 000 01
191530 2440N 08505W 9701 00320 0063 +227 +224 137033 034 033 001 00
191600 2441N 08505W 9699 00323 //// +211 //// 139030 032 034 006 01
191630 2443N 08504W 9702 00320 //// +199 //// 145028 031 042 019 01
191700 2445N 08504W 9692 00327 //// +195 //// 145034 037 048 018 01
$$
;

[Rainband]

12z models look very non committed to development. Heck, most seem to move just a broad area of low pressure toward the eastern FL Panhandle. I'm thinking the strongest winds might end up just off our coast with a strong offshore wind with the increase in the pressure gradient behind the front while most of the rain hits the peninsula to the east.

Couple of them still show a sheared storm. Doubt it but this 95l looks like it's fighting. Either way More rain which we need badly and then cooler temps. I am still gonna watch this system. GOM storms do odd stuff

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171927
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 22 20111017
191730 2446N 08503W 9705 00316 //// +199 //// 143036 037 042 011 01
191800 2448N 08503W 9692 00329 //// +212 //// 138033 033 038 003 01
191830 2450N 08503W 9704 00315 0062 +219 //// 140036 038 039 001 01
191900 2451N 08502W 9703 00318 0060 +229 //// 142041 041 037 000 01
191930 2453N 08502W 9700 00320 0060 +233 +218 144041 041 040 000 03
192000 2455N 08501W 9704 00316 0060 +229 +225 143042 045 042 001 03
192030 2457N 08501W 9705 00315 0061 +219 //// 135043 046 041 004 01
192100 2458N 08500W 9704 00313 0059 +219 //// 134040 042 042 004 01
192130 2500N 08500W 9597 00414 0060 +216 //// 132043 045 034 001 05
192200 2502N 08502W 9291 00699 0066 +207 //// 135044 046 041 003 05
192230 2503N 08503W 9143 00843 0068 +201 //// 137043 044 /// /// 05
192300 2503N 08505W 8960 01018 0068 +190 //// 146042 044 043 002 01
192330 2504N 08507W 8798 01166 0063 +172 //// 148041 043 043 005 01
192400 2504N 08509W 8571 01394 //// +156 //// 145036 039 043 014 05
192430 2504N 08511W 8437 01538 //// +143 //// 163033 035 040 009 01
192500 2504N 08513W 8446 01532 0077 +159 //// 168027 028 040 006 01
192530 2505N 08515W 8433 01543 0075 +160 //// 162022 025 037 006 01
192600 2505N 08518W 8416 01558 0082 +151 //// 147028 030 030 007 01
192630 2505N 08520W 8454 01525 0076 +155 //// 154027 029 032 008 05
192700 2505N 08522W 8419 01556 0078 +150 //// 161025 028 029 003 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[wxman57]

30% may still be too high...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND
WINDS OF GALE FORCE...BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CENTER OF CIRCULATION
NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN