WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[Chacor]

Dry slot NW of the eyewall. Interesting. Wonder if we'll start to see signs of an EWRC soon.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 22.1N 136.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 25.5N 133.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 181200UTC 29.0N 131.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 191200UTC 32.6N 133.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[BriManG35]

Does anyone know of weather sites that have long animations and preferably with short intervals of 30 minutes between each image?..I use some sites that have decent loopings but was wondering if anyone knew any that were say 24+ hour loops I guess archives of real time satellites to see the beginning of a storm (say Ma-On) to its present location..

[RobWESTPACWX]

Dry slot NW of the eyewall. Interesting. Wonder if we'll start to see signs of an EWRC soon.

I very well think that is going to happen. If you check out the sat shot at this link shown below you really can see the seperation between an inner and outer eyewall, thats also taking in to account the northern portion of the eyewall continues to be very weak.

[KWT]

System just can't work out the dry slots that keep on being injested into the systems core...

Still the JWTC track is pretty worrying...the system pretty much rakes a good porition of very highly populted land with probably 90-100kts.

ECM also takes the system ESE like the JWTC track and so gives Ma-On an extra couple of days before it finally totally goes extra-tropical.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 22.7N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 26.1N 132.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 181800UTC 30.0N 131.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 191800UTC 33.0N 133.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

[KWT]

I suspect unless it restrengthens again pretty soon we've just about seen the peak of Ma On, I suspect it'll hover between 95-110kts till landfall.

[Bobo2000]

A lot of open water left. Just that dry air! If it wasn't for that, that thing would have been a Cat 5!

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 23.0N 135.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 26.6N 132.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 181800UTC 30.0N 131.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 191800UTC 33.0N 133.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 22.7N 136.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 136.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.1N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 25.7N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 27.6N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 29.6N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 33.1N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 34.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 33.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 135.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 15 NM EYE WITH AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE
WEST QUADRANT. A 161704Z AMSR-E IMAGE SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OCCURRING WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL
SURROUNDED BY A NEAR COMPLETE OUTER EYEWALL. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE 300-360 NM RADIUS SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS 200 NM. OVERALL, OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE TUTT HAS WEAKENED. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED
NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MINOR WOBBLE INDICATED IN ANIMATED IMAGERY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT, HAVE WARMED
YET THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED. THE CLOUD TOP WARMING IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM TREND AND TY 08W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AFTER THE ERC
IS COMPLETE AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK BASED ON A TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
MODELS AND A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 15/12Z
AND 16/12Z 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS EAST ASIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH KOREA AND
WESTERN JAPAN. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 162129
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 16/2032Z
C. 23.1N
D. 135.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/12HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A SURROUNDING RING OF LG AND A
OW EYE RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. NOTHING WAS ADDED FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT.
FT IS BASED ON MET.
NIL
...KIBLER

[StormingB81]

I just hope this doesn't hit the tsunami area of japan!

[StormingB81]

JMA starting 1 hour warnings...

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 23.4N 135.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 550NM SOUTH 350NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 26.9N 132.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 190000UTC 30.8N 131.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 200000UTC 33.3N 134.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 210000UTC 33.9N 140.8E 240NM 70%
MOVE E 13KT
120HF 220000UTC 34.3N 149.5E 260NM 70%
MOVE E 18KT =

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 23.4N 135.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N 135.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.9N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 26.7N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 28.6N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 30.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.6N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 34.5N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 33.4N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 135.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z
AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 170100
A. TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)
B. 16/2332Z
C. 23.4N
D. 135.7E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW RING YIELDS A EYE
NUMBER OF 4.0. WITH AN OW EYE OF 13NM DIAMETER, ADJUST BY MINUS
0.5 FOR ADJUSTED EYE NUMBER OF 3.5. ADD 1.5 FOR BANDING WITH
COMPLETE WRAP NOT CLOSED OFF FOR DT OF 5.0. NO CHANGE IN THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORM IN THE PAST 24 HRS YIELDS A MET OF 5.0.
DESPITE WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS, THE HORIZONTAL EXTENT OF
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND MICROWAVE CONCENTRIC BANDING
SUGGESTS AN ERC. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

[Chacor]

System is in Japanese radar range, hence JMA doing hourly warnings on their website. They do not issue bulletins on WTPQ20 RJTD for these though.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 24.3N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 500NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 27.7N 132.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 190000UTC 30.8N 131.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 200000UTC 33.3N 134.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 08W (MA-ON)//
WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING INNER EYEWALL WITH A 13 NM (EYE TEMPERATURE OF
+3C) IRREGULAR EYE AND A DEVELOPING OUTER EYEWALL. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 161939Z SSMI IMAGE AND 162141Z TRMM IMAGE
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS WELL
UNDERWAY WITH A NEAR COMPLETE OUTER EYEWALL AND AN ERODING INNER
EYEWALL. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE 300-360
NM RADIUS SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS 220 NM. OVERALL, OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH HAS IMPROVED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE TUTT HAS
WEAKENED. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MINOR WOBBLE
INDICATED IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TY 08W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AFTER THE
ERC IS COMPLETE AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND JMA ENSEMBLE
TRACKS ARE IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE 15/12Z AND 16/12Z
500 MB ANALYSES ALSO SUPPORT THE CURRENT SCENARIO AND INDICATE A
BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST ASIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING RIDGE AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS GRADUALLY
PUSHING INTO SOUTH KOREA AND WESTERN JAPAN. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS HAS REMAINED VERY
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND TRACK
SPEEDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WESTERLIES, THE RE-CURVE IS UNUSUAL IN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK AT
RELATIVELY SLOW SPEEDS (10-14 KNOTS), MAINTAIN TYPHOON INTENSITY
STRENGTH PAST TOKYO; AND LACK SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
UNTIL IT MOVES EAST OF TOKYO. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 120.//
NNNN

TXPQ26 KNES 170312
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 17/0232Z
C. 24.4N
D. 135.3E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...DT=5.0 BASED ON OW EYE WITH DG SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE AND
.5 ADDED FOR BANDING. PT=5.0. MET=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ

[Infdidoll]

Dry air seems to be tearing up some of the organization, right now.

[euro6208]

A lot of open water left. Just that dry air! If it wasn't for that, that thing would have been a Cat 5!

yep

[dwsqos2]

Uh, dry have air hasn't been the only issue for the typhoon. Modest northerly shear has been giving it fits as well.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared ... dry air

[StormingB81]

moving more West (though not moving full west) then I thought it would.. WInds picking up here although I dont expect it to be too windy here..I think I will be suprised if we have wind gust over 50mph

[Chacor]

30 kt wind boundary approaching Okinawa, based on the JMA maps.