ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Huracan Gorges · #41 Postby **Huracan Gorges** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:50 am

happy Labor Day........bout finally a see something big from Africa.......and with progress to the Atlantic......defeinlly keping a Close Eye......Action....and Active :wink:

Jimsot · #42 Postby **Jimsot** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:51 am

pricetag56 wrote:maria just has that name hurricane maria it sounds serious.

It could just as well be NATE. NATE sounds like a loser to me, skip the Islands and go fishing.

StarmanHDB · #43 Postby **StarmanHDB** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:51 am

RL3AO wrote:I was actually able to track the 850mb vort which stays very weak into the Bahamas and then into S Florida, maybe developing in the final 24 hours.

A very sarcastic (hopefully unnecessary) "wonderful". UCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCH!

#44 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:03 am

"Maria to be" has a low latitude (below 10N). And tracking west under the ridge could spell problems for the Caribbean. I'm watching this one closely.

#45 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:05 am

painkillerr wrote:"Maria to be" has a low latitude (below 10N). And tracking west under the ridge could spell problems for the Caribbean. I'm watching this one closely.

Yeah the Caribbean seriously needs to watch this one.

Time_Zone · #46 Postby **Time_Zone** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:07 am

Models dont seem to like this wave too much...at all really.

HurricaneFan · #47 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:16 am

What about the strong shear affecting the wave to the NW of it?Wouldn't it affect 95L in the near future and possibly kill it?

Florida1118 · #48 Postby **Florida1118** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:19 am

HurricaneFan wrote:What about the strong shear affecting the wave to the NW of it?Wouldn't it affect 95L in the near future and possibly kill it?

No, because this is moving westward and the shear is to the N/NW. So it is fine from shear for now

#49 Postby **Mouton** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:20 am

Pretty far south...does it even make it?

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:21 am

The TAFB 12z surface analysis adds a low.

Saved image.

CYCLONE MIKE · #51 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:21 am

Could be like every other slow developer we have seen so far. Which would be the worse scenario given the ridging is lookling to be really strong across the entire atlantic. Things could surely change, have a long time to watch, but has the potential to be a big one for at least the islands. Will not even speculate where this could gofrom there because almost every possibility is on the table after that.

#52 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:22 am

It may take awhile for 95L to fully detach itself from the ITCZ, but once it does, I see no hindrances to handicap this system down the road to develop.

#53 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:27 am

Look at that nice Bermuda High there on 06Z GFS, 144 hours. We haven't seen that since probably the middle of July. Would certainly block 95L from recurving.

The GFS also has support from the ECMWF on a strong Bermuda High ridge in the long-range, in fact on the ECMWF 00Z 168 hours, it bridges with the Azores High which would prevent 95L from recurving:

Remarkably, both models have very similar upper air patterns in the medium to long-range

#54 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:30 am

NOGAPS likes it a little bit. Here was the 00z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

bella_may · #55 Postby **bella_may** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:32 am

Looks like the gulf coast will have another one to watch

#56 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:35 am

bella_may wrote:Looks like the gulf coast will have another one to watch

Too early to say right now but the upper air pattern across the Atlantic as progged by the GFS and ECMWF look like 95L is not going to recurve east of the Leewards, not to mention 95L is at a very low lattitude. After that, looks like things are a bit up in the air right now. In fact both these models are showing some kind of large cutoff mid to upper-level low that develops over the Central/Eastern United States that creates a big break in the ridge over the GOM/Florida/Bahamas.

Of course, 95L may not even develop until it gets much farther west as models don't seem too bullish right now (that can change though).

HurricaneFan · #57 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:35 am

But what are the models seeing to not develop this much?I mean,a number of waves they had developing early and it didn't happen,so why aren't they developing this wave sooner?

#58 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 10:56 am

This time, no calls on Page 1-2-3 for a recurve or fish like for Katia.
Models this time look like this could be a low runner for a while...........
I guess we were all kind of bored (NOT!!) after Lee went away and Katia decided that she indeed wanted to be a fish after all.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:08 am

12z GFS has a low pressure in less than 72 hours. It didn't had that at 00z.

Saved image.

#60 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:11 am

Very robust circulation...

ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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