WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

#41 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:33 am

Extratropical94 wrote:I think it's Roke, followed by Sonca and Nesat.

Thanks!

#42 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:36 am

so it is flaring up in different spots..anyone know what to make of it?

euro6208 · #43 Postby **euro6208** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:37 am

after passing okinawa as a tropical storm, euro has this system intensifying into a strong typhoon which might hit taiwan...

#44 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:39 am

StormingB81 wrote:so it is flaring up in different spots..anyone know what to make of it?

Sheered with an elongated LPC right now is my thoughts. I think the center of circulation is off to the right of the main convection. The blow up to the left near the Ryukus is something separate entirely. What are your thoughts Brian?

#45 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:51 am

Well looking at NWS Guams model and forcasted winds...they have a greater chance for 50 knot winds here in Okinawa...Models soon to be all over the place still...it has alot to do to get its act together..shear has let up some by the storm by closer to okinawa has gone up which isnt good for devlopement....the shear is the big question and the big factor in this storm doing anything....ECMWF I believe has it at the same storm blowing up next to Okinawa but has it close enough where winds still maybe pretty strong here...and the last few warning from JTWC are bringing it closer to Okinawa...I believe looking at the various models that Okinawa is about 60-70% of recieving 50 knot winds or higher..IF the wind shear backs off..however with its size and slow movement if shear back off with the slow developement it is reminding me off Talas that was very large with a huge eye and dumped alot of rain in mainland...just my opinion though...with the distance and speed of this storm I think Thursday we will have our answers...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#46 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 2:51 am

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

Here is NWS guam..I was looking at the experminetal wind link thats what I was basing this on..

#47 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:11 am

Another view of the elongated circulation I mentioned, upper levels granted.

phwxenthusiast · #48 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:33 am

nice presentation on the MWI, although not really sure if that circular thing is the center or just false return...

#49 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:52 am

New JTWC waning is out..even closer to okinawa.. Okinawa would be in the 50 knot circle now..

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.4N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.1N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.8N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.5N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 135.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS TD 18W CONTINUES ITS
STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE AROUND AN EXPANSIVE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LATEST AMSU RADIAL CROSS SECTION
CONFIRMS THE MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY REMAINS WEAK AND UNCHANGED OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. A 120343Z AMSRE IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CORE. COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE
MOST RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND THOSE PREVIOUS REVEAL ONLY A SLIGHT
TREND TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION, WHILE SCATTEROMETRY DATA OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE. AN 112352Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
REVEALS THAT TD 18W IS AN EXTREMELY LARGE SYSTEM, WITH 25-30 KNOT
WINDS EXTENDING OVER 300 NM OUTWARDS FROM THE LLCC. THE BROAD WIND
FIELD IS A RESULT OF GRADIENT COMPRESSION BETWEEN TD 18W AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS ALSO FORCING THE
SYSTEM ON A SLOW WESTERLY COURSE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
BELOW 10 KNOTS AND ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE FROM 29 TO 30 DEGREES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
IMPINGEMENTS ON OUTFLOW WILL SLOW DEVELOPMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS
SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. VENTING
INTO THE TUTT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS RESULTED IN A WEAK
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH IS COUNTERACTING SOME OF THE
IMPEDIMENTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A
COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE EXTENSIVE WIND FIELDS SHOWN IN
BOTH ASCAT AND OCEANSAT DATA. THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC ANALYSIS
REFLECTS A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING INTO THE RYUKYUS. THE RIDGE WILL DRIVE
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. DESPITE THE
LACK OF INTENSITY, TD 18W WILL REMAIN A VERY LARGE SYSTEM, AND ITS
BROAD WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WILL AFFECT AN
EXTENSIVE AREA. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN CHINA COUPLED WITH A SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA, AND TD 18W WILL STEER TOWARDS THAT WEAKNESS. ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENCY AND DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING TRACK, THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A SLOW AND
STEADY RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
120600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND
130900Z.//
NNNN

#50 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:56 am

#51 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 4:07 am

Interesting...Yesterday when the storm was projected to come within 80 miles of here with no chance of 50 knots kadena weather had it posted on the site...now that it is within 30 miles and within 50 knots they say no tropical storms or higher will effect Okinawa..hmmm

#52 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 4:37 am

ok now they have put the update from 7am this morning

#53 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 4:37 am

Got to remember those weather guys may disagree with with the JT track, not politically correct but a ballsy move. I think it's going to be close as far as winds for Kadena though, just my thoughts, but TS winds of 35-40 from what I see now could happen. *just my personal thoughts though*

Very interesting microwave imagery there Pat!

#54 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 4:39 am

jtwc forecast shows us over 50 knots...getting interesting

#55 Postby **RobWESTPACWX** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:31 am

Well my thoughts on the storm in Video Form!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nvnnia0KXw[/youtube]\

Also made this image on the track, or what I think.

#56 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 6:40 am

Calling for winds of 58mph gusting to 75 mph closest approach would be 35 miles SW of Kadena at 7 am Friday...of course this could change..which means TCCORs IF the forecast don;t change will start tomorrow night

dexterlabio · #57 Postby **dexterlabio** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:53 am

Frankly and I don't think this is an opinion; it looks awful in visible satpic. Now I'm thinking that this will stay as a weak TD at least for a day or two. If any considerable intensification will occur, I think it will happen near or past Okinawa.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio · #58 Postby **dexterlabio** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:59 am

By the way, this entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and having it codenamed "Onyok".

evere Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression "ONYOK"
Issued at 8:00 p.m., Monday, 12 September 2011
The Tropical Depression East Northeast of Basco, Batanes has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "ONYOK" .
Location of Center:
(as of 6:00 p.m.) 1,190 kms East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 21.3°N, 134.9°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Forecast to move West at 09 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday Evening:
990 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Wednesday Evening:
710 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes
Thursday Evening:
570 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes or
at 220 km South Southwest of Okinawa, Japan
No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised

Chacor · #59 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:10 am

Now forecast for 40 kt in 24h.

WTPQ21 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 21.3N 134.9E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 21.8N 132.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

#60 Postby **StormingB81** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 10:04 am

JTWC keeps uping the winds more and more and bringing it closer to Okinawa...

WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.6N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.9N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.3N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.0N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 24.9N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 134.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND
131500Z.//
NNNN

WPAC: ROKE - Post-Tropical (18W)

Re:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

Re:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

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