ATL: IRENE - Models

[seahawkjd]

That GFDL wind swath puts some pretty strong wings inland. Looks like on that Greenville NC gets nailed with 100 mph winds?

[Duddy]

That wind swath looks messed up. If not I'm in trouble if that come about.

I got complacent after the track was trending East, but it looks like its riding the ridge and will move further West than forecastors thought. Looks like we are in for it big time here.

[clfenwi]

06z GFDL 72h



Complete animation

[GTStorm]

That wind swath looks messed up. If not I'm in trouble if that come about.

I got complacent after the track was trending East, but it looks like its riding the ridge and will move further West than forecastors thought. Looks like we are in for it big time here.

6Z GFS is scary...ya'll be safe.

[SootyTern]

That track looks horrible for the entire Cheseapeake Bay

[UpTheCreek]

That GFDL wind swath puts some pretty strong wings inland. Looks like on that Greenville NC gets nailed with 100 mph winds?

Obviously, we'll have a much more accurate idea of landfall as time goes on. We have been preparing to ride it out here and are finally prepared. Hardly have given a thought to evacuate, but now we're talking about that. It's hard to leave your property behind, but there's nothing you can really do to save it either. This looks to be much worse than Isabel for us. How much further west will it go?

[seahawkjd]

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Definetely looks like the models shifted west overnight.

[southerngale]

6z GFS at 54 hours






6z GFS at 66 hours

[southerngale]

0z Euro at 75 hours

[CronkPSU]

The Nam setup look any different this time around?

[deltadog03]

the NAM looks like its moving the cane too quickly....IMO

[duris]

Obviously, we'll have a much more accurate idea of landfall as time goes on. We have been preparing to ride it out here and are finally prepared. Hardly have given a thought to evacuate, but now we're talking about that. It's hard to leave your property behind, but there's nothing you can really do to save it either. This looks to be much worse than Isabel for us. How much further west will it go?

Speaking from experience with Katrina, things can be replaced. Godspeed.

[capepoint]

Crap, euro right smack over my house with the center.......and gfs a few miles to my west. local models are showing 13 inches of rain possible, on top of already high astronomical tides. looks bad for eastern nc.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Crap, euro right smack over my house with the center.......and gfs a few miles to my west. local models are showing 13 inches of rain possible, on top of already high astronomical tides. looks bad for eastern nc.

Prepare now for sure. I dropped a truckload off there once. What a beautiful city with a great ocean view. Things can be replaced. Its best to get out of dodge if the track doesnt change by Tommorrow

[Stephanie]

Obviously, we'll have a much more accurate idea of landfall as time goes on. We have been preparing to ride it out here and are finally prepared. Hardly have given a thought to evacuate, but now we're talking about that. It's hard to leave your property behind, but there's nothing you can really do to save it either. This looks to be much worse than Isabel for us. How much further west will it go?

Speaking from experience with Katrina, things can be replaced. Godspeed.

Thank you for the reminder. You're absolutely right.

[capepoint]

Crap, euro right smack over my house with the center.......and gfs a few miles to my west. local models are showing 13 inches of rain possible, on top of already high astronomical tides. looks bad for eastern nc.

Prepare now for sure. I dropped a truckload off there once. What a beautiful city with a great ocean view. Things can be replaced. Its best to get out of dodge if the track doesnt change by Tommorrow

That would be the smart thing to do, but I'm a firefighter, so we have to stay. part of the job, ya know.... At least I may be able to provide some on the spot reports, as long as internet and 3g hold out.

[ozonepete]

Crap, euro right smack over my house with the center.......and gfs a few miles to my west. local models are showing 13 inches of rain possible, on top of already high astronomical tides. looks bad for eastern nc.

Prepare now for sure. I dropped a truckload off there once. What a beautiful city with a great ocean view. Things can be replaced. Its best to get out of dodge if the track doesnt change by Tommorrow

That would be the smart thing to do, but I'm a firefighter, so we have to stay. part of the job, ya know.... At least I may be able to provide some on the spot reports, as long as internet and 3g hold out.

Best of luck to you. Nobody knows better how to use caution than you guys, but still, be careful.

[tigerpaws17]

With the models starting to trend more west, any one think the track will trend far enough west to hurricane force winds from Charleston, SC northward?

[seahawkjd]

Crap, euro right smack over my house with the center.......and gfs a few miles to my west. local models are showing 13 inches of rain possible, on top of already high astronomical tides. looks bad for eastern nc.

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I grew up in Beaufort and my parents still live there. I'm trying to get them to either go to my sister's house in Greenville or my place in Raleigh. The trend is no longer our friend here in NC.....

[GTStorm]

With the models starting to trend more west, any one think the track will trend far enough west to hurricane force winds from Charleston, SC northward?

The Charleston NWS forecast does mention the more westward trend (and weaker trough), and upped the precipation forecast. Keeps the wind forecast brisk, but nothing too extreme.

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