WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants

[Typhoon Hunter]

Wow this one is really cranking. I go out to the pub for a couple of hours and come back to see it's been upgraded and looks really damn healthy on satellite!.

JTWC track 1 in line with models suggesting this one could be a threat to land somewhere down the line!

[KWT]

Wow raw figure really is high there, 3.9 is pretty much 65kts!

Probably a TS already as others yhave said, slightly lopsided system but thats to be expected at this stage.

Looks like it's going to be an interesting one to track, 06z GFS also creates a very powerful system, probably a 4/5.

Also looks to be an interesting track as well...

[Iune]

Next name is "Meari" submitted by North Korea and means "Echo". The last Typhoon Meari was a category four typhoon that did ~$800 million in damages in Japan.

Sorry man, Meari was 07W.
This one will be named Ma-On

The next Philippine name, when this enters PAR in the northernmost part below 25N will be Hanna

Oops

Anyway, the name "Ma-on" was submitted by Hong Kong and is the name of a mountain. The last Typhoon Ma-on was a category five super typhoon which did ~$600 million in Japan.

[KWT]

Well lets hope it doesn't strike with quite the same force Ma-On did the last time it developed!

[supercane]

NWS Guam issues first advisory following JTWC:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 111600
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 12 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W HAS FORMED WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT RESIDENTS OF
AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.0
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 740 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
735 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
730 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN
775 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...AND
875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST AT 3 MPH. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TODAY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE
THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 157.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

ASCAT shows large area of 25-35 kt winds on the NE quadrant, indicating that this is at least a TD and quite possibly a weak TS given ASCAT's low bias:


Latest microwave shows banding mainly to the S and E with a center still devoid of convection, explaining why no agency is using the raw ADT numbers:

[HURAKAN]

small upper-level low to the NW of the system

[phwxenthusiast]

I find JTWC's progs to be very interesting.. what do you think guys??

C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 08W WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NEAR
TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF
THE PHILIPPINES WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST DIP IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Yeah Hurakan that upper low is going to need watching for it could well make a difference with regards to its possible strength.

[wxman57]

I find JTWC's progs to be very interesting.. what do you think guys??

C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 08W WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NEAR
TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF
THE PHILIPPINES WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST DIP IN THE FORECAST
TRACK. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

All of the models are indicating a period of south of west movement in the 3-5 day time frame, followed by a NW turn.

[phwxenthusiast]

yeah i saw that...

btw 12z EURO run still showing a monster, yikes!!

[KWT]

Abit further east on the 12z run but just as strong, smashes SE Japan from the looks of things!

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 18.4N 156.6E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 19.5N 151.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[supercane]

First RSMC Tokyo advisory out:


Latest JTWC Dvorak intensity estimate at 2.5/35 kt, inline with earlier SAB estimate. Upgrade to TS by JTWC not far behind?
TPPN11 PGTW 111830
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (W OF WAKE ISLAND)
B. 11/1732Z
C. 19.1N
D. 155.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. REPOSITIONED BASED ON 1508 AMSR-
E MICROWAVE IMAGE. CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HOUGH

TUTT to NW restricting outflow in NW quadrant:


12Z plot of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and CMC:


And link to 12Z ECMWF, no longer explicitly develops another cyclone, but does show the same WSW motion/stall as other models presumably due to interaction with another system (92W):
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011071112!!/
12Z ECMWF at 192hr, or about a week from now shows a nasty hit on the Ryukyu Island chain:

[StormingB81]

JMA issueing warnings which means that are about to upgrade to TS:


TD
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 11 July 2011
<Analyses at 11/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N18°25'(18.4°)
E156°35'(156.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°30'(19.5°)
E151°00'(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[KWT]

Thanks for the images supercane, so it looks like a generally WNW followed by WSW followed by a sharper turn to the NW.

The upper low could possibly play a role in the evolution of this system and how strong it gets...will have to wait and see how it acts.

[StormingB81]

Gonna be close enough where and small wobble coulb do good or bad for some people..could just miss it or could just get it..gonna be atleast one eye on this for the next week...just need to be prepared

[supercane]

JTWC keeps it a depression with the 21Z update:
WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 19.8N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.7N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.4N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.2N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.2N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.4N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 155.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED
NEAR 21N 152E. A 111508Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LLCC WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WRAPPING
WEAKLY INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THIS IMAGE WAS USED TO ADJUST THE
11/12Z WARNING POSITION 47 NM WNW AND ALSO SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPARSE BUT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED,
THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 10-15 KNOT RATE PER DAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND
122100Z.//
NNNN

[KWT]

Seems to me that the JWTC take this system a little further west by day 5 then the models suggest. I think they are going to have to adjust thier track northwards tomorrow.

[supercane]

21Z JMA update:
WTPQ20 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 18.5N 156.3E POOR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 20.0N 151.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Summary statement from NWS Guam:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 112140
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
800 AM CHST TUE JUL 12 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...BUT RESIDENTS OF
AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.1
DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 615 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
610 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
610 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN
675 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...AND
785 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATE THIS
MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 155.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

Morning vis:


Latest SAB Dvorak still at 2.5/35 kt:
TXPQ26 KNES 112110
TCSWNP
A. 08W (NONAME)
B. 11/2032Z
C. 18.6N
D. 155.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...DT OF 2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 2.5.
FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
11/1508Z 18.6N 156.0E AMSR
...LIDDICK

Convection still separated from center on latest microwave:

[windysocks]

Ma On Shan is a ridgeline away from me too. I'm wondering if I live in the same village as Typhoon Hunter....

I don't think I've ever seen a typhoon turn SW before. Is that unusual?