ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[petit_bois]

Loop current could inhance possible development.
Lots of hot water and a very moist invironment over the entire eastern GOM. Could be GOM'er time.

[Ivanhater]

It does seem to be organizing

[thetruesms]

What do you think about the Pensacola bay area wxman? We have that huge blue angel air show on Pensacola beach saturday. So far the pops are only about 30 percent, so most of the weather should be east of us?

I'd say there's a good chance the Blue Angels will be dodging thunderstorms this weekend. Rain chances will be raised to 50-60% as the local NWS office catches on to the disturbance moving into the panhandle. Send it over here if you don't want it, we could use the rain.

Yeah, as cool as the Blue Angels are, I'm going to go ahead and vote for rain instead. Things have been starting to improve on the peninsula, but drought conditions are still prominent in the Panhandle.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro looks pretty stout

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011070718, , BEST, 0, 248N, 853W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

SHIP is at intensity of Minimal Tropical or subtropical storm as maximun.

Code: Select all

912
WHXX01 KWBC 071834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC THU JUL 7 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20110707 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110707  1800   110708  0600   110708  1800   110709  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.8N  85.3W   25.5N  86.3W   26.7N  87.0W   27.5N  87.6W
BAMD    24.8N  85.3W   26.2N  85.8W   27.8N  86.6W   29.4N  87.2W
BAMM    24.8N  85.3W   25.8N  85.8W   27.0N  86.1W   28.2N  86.1W
LBAR    24.8N  85.3W   25.8N  85.7W   27.2N  86.2W   28.8N  86.1W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110709  1800   110710  1800   110711  1800   110712  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.5N  88.0W   30.4N  89.5W   32.2N  90.8W   33.0N  92.0W
BAMD    30.6N  88.0W   33.2N  90.6W   36.1N  91.8W   37.0N  88.4W
BAMM    29.5N  86.0W   31.5N  86.5W   32.0N  87.1W   31.1N  88.7W
LBAR    30.4N  85.6W   33.8N  83.9W   36.7N  82.2W   38.4N  75.6W
SHIP        39KTS          45KTS          47KTS          47KTS
DSHP        39KTS          31KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  24.8N LONCUR =  85.3W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =  24.0N LONM12 =  84.8W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  23.2N LONM24 =  84.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[TexasF6]

Well, so much for 10%! I stepped away yesterday and find an invest today?! Fascinating...so those outlier models were right about forecasting this? Very interesting to say the least...

[KWT]

Does look a little better doesn't it...big system though, lots of storms throughout the SE Gulf/NW Caribbean.

[South Texas Storms]

It would be awesome if this system moved slowly west across the Gulf coast providing beneficial rainfall for all of us! Oh well at least Florida is getting drought relief. Us Texans will just have to continue to patiently wait our turn...

[Ivanhater]

It would be awesome if this system moved slowly west across the Gulf coast providing beneficial rainfall for all of us! Oh well at least Florida is getting drought relief. Us Texans will just have to continue to patiently wait our turn...

Not to get off topic but the way the set-up has been lately...South Texas will have many more shots for tropical rains from waves traveling west, at least in the short term.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Thank the drought gods that the rain today has been a solid drizzle. On the rain scale I give it a 2/10. We need this kind of soaking specifically to wet everything everywhere. Its much much better for filling lakes and aquifers and droughtbusting than a huge storm would give. Today's tropical light rains are welcome here. We should get a couple 3 inches by the end of it.

[caneman]

Looks like landfall in the Big Bend area with West coast of FLorida getting the brunt of the rain. We really don't need any more rain as we were inundated just a week ago. Not a lot of wind though which is a good thing.

[jdray]

This would hit in a much needed spot.
Most of North Florida and Panhandle still have very high drought indexes.
Just what the doctor ordered, lotsa rain, light winds.

The model path from the Euro and HWRF would allow some rain for areas most affected. Even up into southern GA, where the Okefenokee is still burning (almost 300K acres so far)

[jdray]

NWS JAX is not overly excited at this time, very dry discussion.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?pil=AFD&sid=JAX

000
FXUS62 KJAX 071823
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...HIGH MOISTURE PLUME WILL ROTATE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE EASTERN
GOMEX TONIGHT INTO FRI. TAILORED POPS TO REFLECT STRONGER SUBSIDENCE
OVER OUR NE GA ZONES AS EVIDENCED BY TAME AFTN CU FIELD...TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES WHERE SCT TS AND WIDESPREAD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN GA ZONES AND
NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING WHERE DRIER AIR
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO PROMOTE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS...OTHERWISE SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWATS AROUND 2 TO
2.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE HVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES.

FRI INTO SAT MODELS INDICATE THE TROP WAVE DEVELOPING A BROAD SFC
WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GOMEX AND MOVING NNE INTO EARLY SAT AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES FROM THE NORTH
AS A WEAKENING SFC FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS 2.25 INCHES + VIA THE SREF) WILL FOCUS ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE GOMEX WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
OUR ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
ACCORDINGLY INTO THE LIKELY RANGE WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING INLAND
FROM THE GOMEX LATE FRI NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL
ZONES SAT WITH NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCT TS.

AS THE BROAD SFC LOW DEPARTS LATE SAT SLIGHTLY DRIER (2 INCH PWATS)
LINGER ACROSS THE CWA FOR SUN. AGAIN INDICATED AN EARLY START TO
PRECIP ACROSS OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES WITH PREVAILING SWLY
FLOW...WITH A SEA BREEZE MERGER ACROSS OUR EASTERN FL ZONES AND GA
ZONES BY EVENING.

HPC 5-DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
CWA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN MANY LOCALES. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TO MID
90S...AND MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...HOWEVER HIGH DEW PTS (NEAR 80
DEG TODAY NEAR DAB AND BUNNELL) WILL MAKE IT QUITE STEAMY.

.LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL TROUGHING AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR POSSIBLY FILTERING IN FROM THE NNE TUE WHICH WOULD LIMIT POPS
ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A GOOD
CHANCE OF AFTN TSRA ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 90S TO 70S.

[Janie2006]

What do you think about the Pensacola bay area wxman? We have that huge blue angel air show on Pensacola beach saturday. So far the pops are only about 30 percent, so most of the weather should be east of us?

I'd say there's a good chance the Blue Angels will be dodging thunderstorms this weekend. Rain chances will be raised to 50-60% as the local NWS office catches on to the disturbance moving into the panhandle. Send it over here if you don't want it, we could use the rain.

I'll take anything I can get over here, but it seems this location would be a bit too far west for beneficial rainfall...at least at this point.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Janie2006"][quote="wxman57"][quote="Ivanhater"]What do you think about the Pensacola bay area wxman? We have that huge blue angel air show on Pensacola beach saturday. So far the pops are only about 30 percent, so most of the weather should be east of us?[/quote]

I'd say there's a good chance the Blue Angels will be dodging thunderstorms this weekend. Rain chances will be raised to 50-60% as the local NWS office catches on to the disturbance moving into the panhandle. Send it over here if you don't want it, we could use the rain.[/quote]

I'll take anything I can get over here, but it seems this location would be a bit too far west for beneficial rainfall...at least at this point.[/quote]


I'm not expecting much out of this, even if it does become a TD or minimal TS, IMO anyone west of Apalachicola will see nothing more than the occasional shower, but we'll certainly welcome anything that comes our way.

[SouthFloridawx]

IMO, model runs aren't going to be too accurate till the Tropical Wave moves through the area.

[fci]

Thank the drought gods that the rain today has been a solid drizzle. On the rain scale I give it a 2/10. We need this kind of soaking specifically to wet everything everywhere. Its much much better for filling lakes and aquifers and droughtbusting than a huge storm would give. Today's tropical light rains are welcome here. We should get a couple 3 inches by the end of it.

Good to hear your expectation of 2-3 inches in Broward (not sure if that "solid drizzle" would yield 2-3 inches even if it persisted from now until September!) but here in Palm Beach County, the streets have hardly gotten wet from the mist and drizzle. I'd take a huge rain storm, no wind to damage anything; rather than this spitting rain. There is a whole lot of Lake O to replenish not to mention the canals, lakes and sources for water in our extreme drought. This system hasn't done squat I'm afraid.

[thetruesms]

This would hit in a much needed spot.
Most of North Florida and Panhandle still have very high drought indexes.
Just what the doctor ordered, lotsa rain, light winds.

The model path from the Euro and HWRF would allow some rain for areas most affected. Even up into southern GA, where the Okefenokee is still burning (almost 300K acres so far)

[img]http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/8597/kbdimeanstate.png[img]

Some days, I wonder why I bother producing the more detailed 4km resolution KBDI graphic, I'm the only one who ever uses it.

[fci]

This would hit in a much needed spot.
Most of North Florida and Panhandle still have very high drought indexes.
Just what the doctor ordered, lotsa rain, light winds.

The model path from the Euro and HWRF would allow some rain for areas most affected. Even up into southern GA, where the Okefenokee is still burning (almost 300K acres so far)

http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/8597/kbdimeanstate.png

What is this a map of?