Accuweather's Thoughts: The only other feature we are concerned about is the tropical wave near 55 west, moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day in the central Atlantic. Thunderstorms have flared up on each of the past few days, but have dissipated during the nighttime. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development at this time, but as this feature moves into the Caribbean Sea this weekend, upper-level winds may become more favorable for tropical development.
This wave will move through the Leeward Islands tonight, producing some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall in the area. The wave will continue moving westward this weekend, impacting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by early next week. Beyond that, there is a wide variety of ideas, including full tropical development east of the Bahamas by next Wednesday. The latest model runs are showing less support for development, a slower movement, and a track farther south. The key to what evolves out of this system is the strength of the Bermuda high pressure area nosing westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the Bermuda high is strong, the system will move more westward and remain a strong but disorganized tropical wave. The upper-level ridge causing the heat wave over the eastern and central U.S. is projected to move west, allowing a weak upper-level trough to become established along or off the East Coast early next week. This could create a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This weakness would help draw the system more to the northwest, then north, during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That scenario would favor organization and intensification. Therefore, there is no clear-cut idea on this system for next week at this time, but we will be making daily updates on the forecast.
By Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller
Seems reasonable to me.
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However, in its defense, it did extremely well with cyclogenesis of Bret and Cindy. My subtle point was that the models continue to shift southward (even the NOGAPs) so perhaps the system may develop low pressure south of the greater antilles.
