ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS seems to think 93L will become a TS by 15 hours....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

If that's the case, then 92L might be the one that becomes the monster...

What do you mean?

[cycloneye]

At 11:15 PM EDT. Up to 20% or more at 2 AM? I say 30%.

[ConvergenceZone]

00Z GFS seems to think 93L will become a TS by 15 hours....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

If that's the case, then 92L might be the one that becomes the monster...

oops nevermind, I mis-read the above statement, I thought it said that the GFS only develops it into a tropical storm and no further. My bad.

[ConvergenceZone]

At 11:15 PM EDT. Up to 20% or more at 2 AM? I say 30%.

Holy Crap! That looks pretty impressive for just getting over water. I too think 20 or even 30%, probably 20% though.

[SouthDadeFish]

Perhaps the 00Z GFS isn't that far off. We may have a tropical cyclone pretty soon...

[cycloneye]

00z GFS has a huge close call for the Leewards at 162 hours.

[SouthFloridawx]

Water Vapor

[HurricaneWarning92]

dang... thats a monster.

[Hurricaneman]

I dont like how that ridge looks, screams Florida landfall, which is why this bears watching

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ROCK]

0Z 93L runs out of ridge around the Leeward.....really close call then up and out....but you notice the GFS ensembles are split right now and the 18Z traps it....more flip flopping as we get out of GFS la la land I suspect. Interested in seeing the EURO tonight.

[ROCK]

FWIW- The 0Z NOGAPS- merges 92 and 93 and recurves....weird run though

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

wow only 10%...that is surprising but I guess its so far out there no need to rush things.

[SouthDadeFish]

Idk why only 10%.... pretty surprising to me. If 92L is 30% I don't see why 93L can't be the same....

[Florida1118]

Idk why only 10%.... pretty surprising to me. If 92L is 30% I don't see why 93L can't be the same....

Well we know if they invested at 10%, their expecting something...

[dwsqos2]

0Z Euro still has zip.

[Nightwatch]

Is this the kickoff for the 'real' season? First time I see two invests coming of Africa this year, right after eachother.

[floridasun78]

93l look like better looking of both

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 110555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 10N17W AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS IT HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST THE PAST 12 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 17W-23W.

[GCANE]

Rain rate is still strong with 93L.

Wind field however is showing a wave and not a closed LLC.

Core is vertically compressed, which is also the case with 92L.

This is the same phenomena as with Emily and Don.

Will be interesting to see if these systems strengthen at night and weaken during the day.