ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Chacor]

For our Canadian friends, Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre is now issuing bulletins on Irene.

WOCN31 CWHX 252345
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 7:54 PM ADT THURSDAY
25 AUGUST 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
ATLANTIC PROVINCES
SOUTHERN QUEBEC.

FOR HURRICANE IRENE.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.

THIS IS AN UPDATED PRELIMINARY INFORMATION STATEMENT TO DISCUSS
HURRICANE IRENE'S EFFECT ON CANADA. FULL MESSAGING ON THIS
STORM WILL BEGIN AT 3 AM ADT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
HURRICANE IRENE IS A MAJOR HURRICANE NOW EXITING THE BAHAMAS
WITH WINDS NEAR 180 KM/H. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 20 KM/H. IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EITHER THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OR THE MARITIME
PROVINCES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
WILL, AS ALWAYS, DEPEND ON MANY CHANGING FACTORS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THUS, IT IS TOO EARLY TO MEANINGFULLY STATE HOW THE STORM WILL
AFFECT SPECIFIC AREAS. HOWEVER, IT IS COMMON THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK AND HIGHEST WINDS TO THE
RIGHT WITH THIS SORT OF STORM. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WE ENCOURAGE
CONSULTING THE BULLETINS AT LEAST TWICE A DAY FOR UPDATES ON OUR
FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST TRACK INFORMATION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY

[amawea]

IMO though even if it is a cat 2 the pressure is more indicative of overall storm strength. So if it were 935mb and cat 2 then thats what it is but the pressure is more representative of strength IMO

I agree with that. I have always watched the pressure and look for the wind speed to follow. Pressure down, wind speed up; pressure up, wind speeed down.

[Sanibel]

If it drops into the 930's in pressure if I lived in North Carolina I'd be going to full life-saving measures in the impacted zones. It probably means it will carry this intensity into shore in the form of surge. No mess around time IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260208
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 38 20110826
015900 2747N 07723W 7532 01986 9420 +211 +156 311008 010 015 001 00
015930 2745N 07724W 7519 02001 9423 +208 +164 328018 022 021 001 00
020000 2744N 07726W 7520 02009 9430 +210 +162 326035 040 033 002 03
020030 2742N 07728W 7484 02067 9452 +197 +172 317047 052 051 003 00
020100 2741N 07729W 7508 02060 9476 +195 +176 315062 066 068 003 00
020130 2739N 07731W 7523 02069 9504 +197 +180 311078 086 072 003 00
020200 2738N 07732W 7522 02099 9539 +196 +160 308089 090 070 002 00
020230 2737N 07734W 7521 02127 9553 +214 +147 306085 087 065 003 00
020300 2736N 07735W 7522 02146 9574 +215 +139 310082 082 063 002 00
020330 2734N 07737W 7521 02168 9603 +205 +144 311078 079 061 001 00
020400 2733N 07738W 7519 02191 9630 +196 +152 310075 076 059 001 00
020430 2732N 07740W 7524 02198 9652 +190 +145 312076 077 058 002 00
020500 2730N 07741W 7523 02215 9672 +184 +145 310074 076 055 000 00
020530 2729N 07743W 7523 02225 9682 +186 +151 309071 072 054 001 00
020600 2728N 07744W 7521 02240 9689 +194 +144 308070 071 053 001 00
020630 2726N 07746W 7522 02251 9707 +188 +140 308068 069 053 001 00
020700 2725N 07747W 7525 02254 9723 +180 +138 306068 068 051 001 00
020730 2724N 07749W 7522 02269 9735 +177 +142 304067 068 053 001 00
020800 2723N 07750W 7521 02278 9742 +179 +143 301068 068 052 002 00
020830 2721N 07751W 7522 02284 9753 +174 +145 301068 068 052 002 00

[ROCK]

If it drops into the 930's in pressure if I lived in North Carolina I'd be going to full life-saving measures in the impacted zones. It probably means it will carry this intensity into shore in the form of surge. No mess around time IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

one of things I learned from WXMN57 during his conference is its the radius of the hurricane force winds that dictate the surge....not the category of the storm....IKE was a high end 2 but the surge rivaled that of the 1900 hurricane which I believe was a cat 4..

[maxintensity]

What I find most impressive is a 10mb pressure drop in 2 hours. Makes you wonder whats ahead.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is one massive system:



In my opinion, it very hard to see this thing not producing massive storm surge damage somewhere.

[terrapintransit]

Agreed...massive!

[Sanibel]

What I find most impressive is a 10mb pressure drop in 2 hours. Makes you wonder whats ahead.

I know the board tries to maintain a professional level but there's a time to hit the alarm button and I think it's now...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

The convective cloud tops doesn't seem as impressive as it once did, though, so hopefully that's a good sign.

[Dave]

Going to need someone to pickup this one...AF 304 is enroute to Irene now.

234
URNT15 KNHC 260220
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 07 20110826
021030 2952N 08258W 3759 08042 0421 -201 -330 167004 004 /// /// 03
021100 2952N 08255W 3759 08042 0422 -200 -352 177004 004 /// /// 03
021130 2951N 08252W 3759 08041 0421 -200 -345 162005 005 /// /// 03
021200 2951N 08249W 3758 08042 0421 -203 -295 152005 005 /// /// 03
021230 2950N 08246W 3759 08040 0421 -193 -342 167005 006 /// /// 03
021300 2949N 08243W 3759 08042 0421 -192 -415 169004 005 /// /// 03
021330 2949N 08240W 3758 08043 0422 -190 -402 169003 003 /// /// 03
021400 2948N 08237W 3759 08041 0422 -189 -381 168003 003 /// /// 03
021430 2947N 08234W 3759 08042 0422 -187 -386 146002 003 /// /// 03
021500 2947N 08231W 3759 08041 0422 -185 -377 113001 001 /// /// 03
021530 2946N 08228W 3759 08042 0422 -185 -394 115001 001 /// /// 03
021600 2946N 08225W 3759 08041 0421 -187 -398 195000 001 /// /// 03
021630 2945N 08222W 3759 08038 0420 -185 -367 286001 002 /// /// 03
021700 2944N 08219W 3758 08042 0421 -185 -403 103000 001 /// /// 03
021730 2944N 08216W 3758 08043 0422 -185 -381 000000 000 /// /// 03
021800 2943N 08213W 3758 08043 0421 -183 -372 335000 000 /// /// 03
021830 2942N 08210W 3759 08038 0420 -183 -414 295001 001 /// /// 03
021900 2942N 08207W 3758 08041 0419 -182 -396 300001 001 /// /// 03
021930 2941N 08204W 3761 08036 0419 -185 -390 275002 002 /// /// 03
022000 2941N 08201W 3758 08041 0420 -185 -404 333002 002 /// /// 03
$$

[ROCK]

What I find most impressive is a 10mb pressure drop in 2 hours. Makes you wonder whats ahead.

I know the board tries to maintain a professional level but there's a time to hit the alarm button and I think it's now...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, you are 100% right....no time to waste now...she will pick up speed soon if not already....Hurricane force winds extend now 80 miles...if she goes over 100 miles well you know the rest...

[jeff]

If it drops into the 930's in pressure if I lived in North Carolina I'd be going to full life-saving measures in the impacted zones. It probably means it will carry this intensity into shore in the form of surge. No mess around time IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

one of things I learned from WXMN57 during his conference is its the radius of the hurricane force winds that dictate the surge....not the category of the storm....IKE was a high end 2 but the surge rivaled that of the 1900 hurricane which I believe was a cat 4..

This is all true, but the shelf off the east coast is different than the upper TX coast. That being said, Irene will be impacting the area during astro high tides. Unlike the TX coast where the tidal range is 1-2 feet at most, along the NE coast this range can be 5-6 feet, so timing of high tides will be very important.

A historic event in the making which will require a significant and coordinated national, state, and local response.

[Dave]

134
URNT15 KNHC 260230
AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 08 20110826
022030 2940N 08158W 3759 08042 0421 -188 -383 017004 004 /// /// 03
022100 2939N 08155W 3759 08041 0422 -189 -363 031004 004 /// /// 03
022130 2939N 08152W 3758 08042 0422 -190 -373 032004 005 /// /// 03
022200 2938N 08149W 3759 08041 0422 -190 -367 025005 005 /// /// 03
022230 2937N 08146W 3759 08040 0421 -190 -322 001006 006 /// /// 03
022300 2937N 08143W 3759 08041 0421 -190 -320 353005 006 /// /// 03
022330 2936N 08140W 3759 08041 0421 -190 -297 351006 006 /// /// 03
022400 2935N 08137W 3758 08043 0421 -190 -323 356006 006 /// /// 03
022430 2935N 08134W 3759 08040 0420 -189 -338 001007 007 /// /// 03
022500 2934N 08131W 3761 08037 0420 -185 -330 352008 008 /// /// 03
022530 2934N 08128W 3759 08041 0420 -184 -329 353009 009 /// /// 03
022600 2933N 08125W 3759 08040 0420 -180 -335 356009 009 /// /// 03
022630 2932N 08122W 3758 08041 0420 -182 -337 002010 010 /// /// 03
022700 2932N 08119W 3760 08037 0419 -181 -355 002010 011 /// /// 03
022730 2931N 08116W 3758 08042 0419 -182 -378 008011 011 /// /// 03
022800 2930N 08113W 3759 08038 0419 -180 -369 011011 012 /// /// 03
022830 2930N 08110W 3761 08037 0419 -180 -366 011011 011 /// /// 03
022900 2929N 08107W 3758 08042 0420 -180 -341 013011 012 /// /// 03
022930 2928N 08104W 3759 08038 0420 -176 -348 018012 012 /// /// 03
023000 2928N 08101W 3759 08040 0420 -175 -371 019012 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

[poof121]

Anyone else see the northeasterly movement? Or is that just a wobble? Or am I just totally nuts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[capepoint]

just want to throw this out there before the storm hits NC.
I have lived here on the southern outer banks for 45 years. it always seems that a storm coming up the coast from the bahamas and florida seems to "bump" or "feel" the coastline. and move east of the forcast by 25-50 miles or so. Usually if it is forcasted to go into Myrtle Beach, it ends up at Cape Fear. Forcasted to hit Cape Fear, ends up at Topsail Island, etc.
Will be interesting if it happens again, and would be an answered prayer for my community as well (g). And of course, this could be a wishcast.
Although I am not in anyway schooled in meteorology, its just something that I have observed over the years. I don't think that the models pick-up on this bumping the coastline thing, if it even exsists at all.
However, if this one does it again, maybe a few people with professional interests in hurricane forcasting will remember this post and consider it.

[jeff]

Anyone else see the northeasterly movement? Or is that just a wobble? Or am I just totally nuts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

More likely the explosion of convection on the NW side looking like a NNE or NE wobble.

[Chacor]

Satellite fixes are T5.0 from TAFB and T5.0 from SAB, both at 90 kt. Recon is struggling to find surface winds much higher than that. This is an interesting one. Really low pressures, but the winds don't match up. I'm inclined to suggest this isn't a major hurricane at this point, probably just under.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260218
NOAA2 2309A IRENE HDOB 39 20110826
020900 2720N 07753W 7523 02289 9764 +170 +148 302070 072 056 002 00
020930 2719N 07754W 7521 02299 9773 +168 +148 299072 072 062 001 00
021000 2717N 07756W 7521 02306 9786 +160 +153 301072 074 060 003 00
021030 2716N 07757W 7522 02311 9795 +160 +150 304073 074 /// /// 03
021100 2715N 07759W 7523 02317 9806 +158 +152 307072 074 /// /// 03
021130 2713N 07800W 7521 02329 9812 +164 +143 307073 075 /// /// 03
021200 2712N 07801W 7519 02342 9821 +165 +146 308069 070 /// /// 03
021230 2711N 07803W 7521 02350 9829 +168 +143 304069 070 /// /// 03
021300 2709N 07804W 7523 02356 9839 +166 +143 304069 070 /// /// 03
021330 2708N 07806W 7521 02363 9841 +172 +139 304067 068 /// /// 03
021400 2706N 07807W 7522 02372 9846 +179 +127 304070 072 /// /// 03
021430 2705N 07809W 7526 02374 9860 +171 +127 304067 071 /// /// 03
021500 2704N 07810W 7523 02385 9872 +167 +131 302065 066 /// /// 03
021530 2703N 07812W 7523 02389 9885 +160 +133 303064 066 /// /// 03
021600 2701N 07813W 7519 02398 9896 +151 +139 303059 062 /// /// 03
021630 2659N 07814W 7522 02400 9906 +147 +139 299059 061 /// /// 03
021700 2658N 07816W 7523 02402 9912 +145 +138 301061 063 /// /// 03
021730 2656N 07817W 7521 02409 9917 +145 +138 302061 064 /// /// 03
021800 2655N 07819W 7521 02415 9925 +142 +139 301061 063 /// /// 03
021830 2654N 07820W 7525 02415 9929 +143 +131 304062 064 /// /// 03

[HurrMark]

This is all true, but the shelf off the east coast is different than the upper TX coast. That being said, Irene will be impacting the area during astro high tides. Unlike the TX coast where the tidal range is 1-2 feet at most, along the NE coast this range can be 5-6 feet, so timing of high tides will be very important.

A historic event in the making which will require a significant and coordinated national response.

I was thinking about that...high tide in New York is roughly 8 PM Sunday, and low tide is roughly 2 PM. If Irene arrives a little earlier than currently forecasted (late afternoon Sunday)...this could be a saving grace. If it is delayed, however, it could be a totally different story.