ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Florida1118 · #81 Postby **Florida1118** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:49 pm

Remains 20%.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

#82 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:50 pm

Looks like there is a lot less dry air than earlier. Convection will probably continue to expand further and further.

#83 Postby **Vortex** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:12 pm

looking more likely this rides the Greater Antilles/Cuba or just south and heads into the gulf...weather were talking just a rain event or more I think the FL Keys and Texas may see the brunt....Intensity, TBD..

CourierPR · #84 Postby **CourierPR** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:12 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:Should end up between Tampico and the TX/LA coast.

This system is not even past the Antilles and the Gulfcasting has begun. :roll:

#85 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:12 pm

12z euro still shows that the H85 vorticity with 90L will track north of Hispaniola.

#86 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:18 pm

Yeah it brings it into the Florida Straits in 96 hours. Is it stronger than the 0z run so far?

#87 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:19 pm

Hmm, 12z euro shows better upper level conditions as 90L travels from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas than earlier runs.

ronjon · #88 Postby **ronjon** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:21 pm

12z NOGAPs - GOM bound.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072212&set=Tropical

#89 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:21 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Yeah it brings it into the Florida Straits in 96 hours. Is it stronger than the 0z run so far?

Yes, it shows the vorticity a little stronger than last night's run.

#90 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:24 pm

Pretty decent vort sig on the 12z Euro....could spin up at any time. Surface convergence is really now.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

#91 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:28 pm

Nice

SHIPS brings this to a hurricane

#92 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:29 pm

SHIPS brings this to a Hurricane

WHXX01 KWBC 221824

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1824 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110722 1800 110723 0600 110723 1800 110724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.1N 56.2W 14.9N 59.4W 15.9N 62.8W 17.1N 66.4W

BAMD 14.1N 56.2W 15.0N 59.3W 15.8N 62.1W 16.6N 64.7W

BAMM 14.1N 56.2W 14.7N 59.5W 15.5N 62.9W 16.3N 66.2W

LBAR 14.1N 56.2W 14.5N 59.4W 15.2N 62.9W 15.7N 66.3W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110724 1800 110725 1800 110726 1800 110727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.4N 70.0W 20.3N 76.6W 21.6N 81.4W 23.2N 85.1W

BAMD 17.4N 67.2W 18.8N 71.4W 20.3N 74.7W 21.6N 77.8W

BAMM 17.4N 69.4W 18.9N 74.9W 19.9N 79.3W 21.3N 83.4W

LBAR 16.4N 69.4W 18.1N 73.9W 20.5N 76.4W 22.8N 78.4W

SHIP 43KTS 55KTS 65KTS 69KTS

DSHP 43KTS 51KTS 60KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 56.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 53.1W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 49.8W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

NNNN

#93 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:32 pm

18z

AL, 90, 2011072218, , BEST, 0, 141N, 562W, 20, 1012

#94 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:36 pm

Putting on a show today...vorticity and surface convergence continues to increase

#95 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:38 pm

Yeah Ivan and it is looking a lot better in the satellite imagery today too compared to last night.

PTrackerLA · #96 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:41 pm

Might have to eat my words from earlier this morning I'm pretty impressed with the increase of convection and low-level turning that I see now.

#97 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:46 pm

CourierPR wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:Should end up between Tampico and the TX/LA coast.
This system is not even past the Antilles and the Gulfcasting has begun.

I'm basing that on model guidance and the massive ridge that has caused so many tropical cyclones in the BoC lately. I'm not "Gulfcasting".

#98 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:18z

AL, 90, 2011072218, , BEST, 0, 141N, 562W, 20, 1012

#99 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:48 pm

Looking better!

sunnyday · #100 Postby **sunnyday** » Fri Jul 22, 2011 1:50 pm

Ships brings it to a hurricane that is predicted to go where? 8-)

ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Who is online