ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

NHC stating 280 degrees, that looks good to me looking at the Vis.loops at the moment.

yeah the overall envelope according to at least the TPW looks slightly north of west. the center is not well established as it will succumb to rotational loops withing the larger circ and especially every time a little convection fires it will get pulled this way and that till some decent convection is maintained.

[Ivanhater]

Coming into view

[Aric Dunn]

Yes, the LLC is east of the convection. It's fighting lots of dry air almost all around it now, along with moderate low-level wind shear. As such, it may have a hard time developing over the next 2-3 days until it reaches the eastern Caribbean. I'm not convinced it will develop as quickly as the models are indicating. If it does develop in just 3 days, then it could be a significant threat to the southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas).

However, if development is delayed, then it continues moving farther west into the Caribbean. I don't see it as an eventual Texas or Louisiana threat (yet), as that persistent ridge overhead just isn't showing any signs of budging. But it could threaten the eastern Gulf or not get picked up at all and track into southern Mexico (like 93L).

I agree with that as well.

Only thing I am noticing is that it seems 97L is moving north of due west and not west even though it is a shallow system. If you extrapolate the current movement, that puts in in the NE Leewards/Puerto Rico area....so it may not even need to develop in 2 to 3 days to still pose a threat to the SE US coast.

yeah "most" reliable models either shallow or deep keep a wnw track.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the SAT images, I would raise this to 20% chance of development in 48 hours for next NHC advisory at 2pmEST

[SFLcane]

HPC 10am excerpt on 97L...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL

[sandyb]

Our local mets have been talking about this for two or three days now as well

[MississippiWx]

Yes, the LLC is east of the convection. It's fighting lots of dry air almost all around it now, along with moderate low-level wind shear. As such, it may have a hard time developing over the next 2-3 days until it reaches the eastern Caribbean. I'm not convinced it will develop as quickly as the models are indicating. If it does develop in just 3 days, then it could be a significant threat to the southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas).

However, if development is delayed, then it continues moving farther west into the Caribbean. I don't see it as an eventual Texas or Louisiana threat (yet), as that persistent ridge overhead just isn't showing any signs of budging. But it could threaten the eastern Gulf or not get picked up at all and track into southern Mexico (like 93L).

No signs of budging? 8-10 day 500mb mean

[SouthDadeFish]

HPC excerpt from 10am this morning on 97L...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL

While this sounds scary, I'm not sure what better than average clustering at days 7-8 mean. I mean so instead of a 600 mile spread, we have a 400 mile spread? Still plenty of time to watch it, although this one gives me a bad feeling.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the LLC may even by "jumping" NNW....if that really is the LLC to the east of the convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

HPC 10am excerpt on 97L...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL

hehe.. well we all have been noticing that for the last 3 days ... just tells us we are all not losing our minds..

[SFLcane]

HPC excerpt from 10am this morning on 97L...http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

NEW 00Z/18 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING NEXT THU/FRI...DAYS 7-8...ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS FL

While this sounds scary, I'm not sure what better than average clustering at days 7-8 mean. I mean so instead of a 600 mile spread, we have a 400 mile spread? Still plenty of time to watch it, although this one gives me a bad feeling.

Doesn't mean much...Just something in our vicinity next week. Nothing really to get all worked up about this thing is many days ahead and alot can happen in terms of track. I think hispanyola holds the wild card if you asked me.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like the LLC may even by "jumping" NNW....if that really is the LLC to the east of the convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

yeah very typical. its going to be wobbling around within the larger circ until decent convection is maintained.

[KWT]

However, if development is delayed, then it continues moving farther west into the Caribbean. I don't see it as an eventual Texas or Louisiana threat (yet), as that persistent ridge overhead just isn't showing any signs of budging. But it could threaten the eastern Gulf or not get picked up at all and track into southern Mexico (like 93L).

It will take its time, 3-4 day range looks good to me.

As for the upper high...sorry I personally have disagree with you there, I think nearly ALL the models show at least a moderate weakening, and quite a few nearly totally kill it off as the upper high briefly refocuses it nearer Bermuda (may only be a short term thing)

E Gulf threat is a real possiblity...I think S.Mexico is at the moment a very tiny risk...going to need for it to develop near the W.Caribbean...which given what the models are doing looks an outside bet...

[somethingfunny]

"Better than average clustering" is a conservatively polite way of referring to this.....



Last night's 0z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF outputs for August 27th, superimposed on one another. You can't see the CMC well because it's basically in the same spot as the Euro.

I do have a tough time with it as well but all the models have been on the same page as far as track, intensity, timeframe of development....very compelling, although I think the models are underestimating what interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba would do to 97L.

[SFLcane]

Looking at this its got a long way before it becomes anything to worry about.

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder why there is so much dry air in the tropics these days?....
It's really keeping this season in check.

[KWT]

It looks like the LLC may even by "jumping" NNW....if that really is the LLC to the east of the convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Yeah its gaining abit of latitude right now, I do see something of a NW wobble there from that circulation...

275-280 for the time being sounds like a good motion track to me.

[ROCK]

Yes, the LLC is east of the convection. It's fighting lots of dry air almost all around it now, along with moderate low-level wind shear. As such, it may have a hard time developing over the next 2-3 days until it reaches the eastern Caribbean. I'm not convinced it will develop as quickly as the models are indicating. If it does develop in just 3 days, then it could be a significant threat to the southeast U.S. (FL to Carolinas).

However, if development is delayed, then it continues moving farther west into the Caribbean. I don't see it as an eventual Texas or Louisiana threat (yet), as that persistent ridge overhead just isn't showing any signs of budging. But it could threaten the eastern Gulf or not get picked up at all and track into southern Mexico (like 93L).

so you are telling me there is a chance....

[Rgv20]

My current thinking is that 97L its going to track south of Puerto Rico and Hispanola like the CMC and UKMET are suggesting.

I would also suspect future models runs would shift to a more westward track to the Central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle threat.

[jlauderdal]

"Better than average clustering" is a conservatively polite way of referring to this.....



Last night's 0z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF outputs for August 27th, superimposed on one another. You can't see the CMC well because it's basically in the same spot as the Euro.

I do have a tough time with it as well but all the models have been on the same page as far as track, intensity, timeframe of development....very compelling, although I think the models are underestimating what interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba would do to 97L.

its very "strait" forward for the next 5 days as far as direction goes and really at least 7 days, intensity is always tricky especially since it hasn't developed