ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

But what are the models seeing to not develop this much?I mean,a number of waves they had developing early and it didn't happen,so why aren't they developing this wave sooner?

GFS is on board now. The latest 12z GFS run going out 72 hours initializes this system moving west in the East ATL.

You better go to the 95L models thread. Many people down the road may see this one as a landfall. Yes, GFS is very much onboard.

[gatorcane]

12Z 168 hours, ridge is building in still? Wow, definitely could hit Florida on this run:

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is starting to turn, but very close to Florida and already in the Bahamas:

[Vortex]

H180 and stronger...patten favors FL and/or up the east coast...

[gatorcane]

Looks like it just misses Florida and has turned, but we are at 192 hours, so not as accurate. 12Z 192 hours:

[Vortex]

h204 continues NW looking like a bona fide threat to the carolinas...

[SFLcane]

Yep starting to make the turn @ 180hrs..Pattern in my opinion this season is very similar to last year with a break in the ridge between bermuda and the southeast U.S. allowing for most but not all cv storms to recurve. Lastest CPC outlook infact called for a continuation of a prevailing mid to upper level trough over the eastern United States through most of sept.

[rainstorm]

GFS seems to be moving this awfully fast. interesting to see if the euro joins the gfs in an hour or so.

[ConvergenceZone]

The track isn't a suprise. Remember only a few days ago that discusson put out by the NHC that said that because of the pattern change, anything that forms over the next 7 to 10 days should continue westard as opposed to recurve away from the USA?...I don't have the direct quote, but it was very close to that.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep starting to make the turn @ 180hrs..Pattern in my opinion this season is very similar to last year with a break in the ridge between bermuda and the southeast U.S. allowing for most but not all cv storms to recurve. Lastest CPC outlook infact called for a continuation of a prevailing mid to upper level trough over the eastern United States through most of sept.

I'd rather listen to what the NHC is saying than pay attention to this one model run showing recurve. It means nothing...

[cycloneye]

Is still early so expect many changes in the model scenarios. Lets see what HWRF,GFDL,CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET and the mighty ECMWF have soon.

[Vortex]

H252 right over Cape Cod...

[BigB0882]

This is awfully close for this far out. I have a feeling that ridge will be strong and the cut off low may not be as strong as predicted this far out, could end up well into the Gulf if a West trend begins to take shape. I am watching it, that is for sure.

[SouthernBreeze]

Early models show it remaining a fairly small storm though...

[drezee]

Wow, 12z GFS track is within 50 miles of Irene's track..

[BigA]

Really coming together now. Clearly developing spin, if a bit elongated east-west right now. Wouldn't be surprised to see orange at the 2PM TWO



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SapphireSea]

The setup that the GFS is showing would favor a EC hit. I would not be sold on anything since we have entered the twilight zone for the models. I suspect the usual spread with the models. HWRF recurving early, UKMET as a low-runner, ECMWF a mix, probobly in the SW bahamas, NOGAPS probobly very similar to GFS. It'll be more accurate when the storm's W. ATL scenario is 120H out.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It certainly have the look of a developing system

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Yep starting to make the turn @ 180hrs..Pattern in my opinion this season is very similar to last year with a break in the ridge between bermuda and the southeast U.S. allowing for most but not all cv storms to recurve. Lastest CPC outlook infact called for a continuation of a prevailing mid to upper level trough over the eastern United States through most of sept.

Quite possibly but I am not comfortable with a GFS 180 hour forecast showing a tropical system just offshore Florida in the Central Bahamas, especially when Florida's greatest risk for Cape Verde hits from the east is typically the first 2-3 weeks in September.

We'll have to see how the models trend.

[Florida1118]

From Dr.Masters:

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west at 15 mph. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to drop to the low range tomorrow, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in two or so days. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday; given the storm's rather impressive organization and spin apparent on recent satellite loops, I'd put these odds at 40%. The NOGAPS model predicts 95L will develop by Saturday, a few hundred miles north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but this storm could just as easily pass directly through the Lesser Antilles on Saturday or Sunday, and develop into a tropical storm much sooner. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands this weekend, pay attention to 95L.