173
AXAU01 APRF 010732
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0731 UTC 01/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.2S
Longitude: 115.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [254 deg]
Speed of Movement: 21 knots [39 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h] reaching 35 knots on the southern
side
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1800: 19.8S 111.9E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 990
+24: 02/0600: 20.2S 109.0E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 990
+36: 02/1800: 20.4S 107.1E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 994
+48: 03/0600: 20.6S 105.7E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 996
+60: 03/1800: 20.8S 104.1E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 04/0600: 20.9S 102.6E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
The fix location was weighted toward observations from ofshore platforms, though
VIS imagery suggests a location slightly to the north and east. The rapid
translation [-20 knots] makes the surface location a little tricky. It is
notable that even with the ra[pid translation the cloud signature indicates
northeasterly shear, implying high level winds of greater than 20 knots.
Both a CDO [irregular 1.5 deg] and shear pattern analysis give DT=3.0 but the
FT constraints limit the FT to 2.0 [0.5 change in 6 hours with 6 hour old FT of
1.5].
The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC
intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday. The system is also
forecast to slow down by Monday, which may actually be a result of some
weakening, but which will also increase system relative shear.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track, roughly parallel to
the Pilbara coast due to a strong mid level ridge to the south.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
W. AUS: Tropical Low 06U (INVEST 98S) - last warning
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 01/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 114.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [267 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h] reaching 35 knots on the southern
side
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 19.5S 110.9E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 988
+24: 02/1200: 19.3S 109.0E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 994
+36: 03/0000: 19.5S 107.9E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 993
+48: 03/1200: 19.9S 106.5E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 993
+60: 04/0000: 20.3S 104.9E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 993
+72: 04/1200: 20.6S 104.0E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 992
REMARKS:
The fix location during the day was weighted toward observations from offshore
platforms, though VIS imagery suggests a location slightly to the north and
east. The rapid translation [-20 knots] makes the surface location a little
tricky. It is notable that even with the rapid translation the cloud signature
indicates northeasterly shear, implying high level winds of greater than 20
knots.
Dvorak: Difficult to assign DT due to the uncertainty of low level centre
location. FT based on MET of 2.0 based on D- trend.
The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC
intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday. The system is also
forecast to slow down by Monday, which may actually be a result of some
weakening, but which will also increase system relative shear.
Model guidance is consistent with a general westerly track over the next 48
hours due to a strong mid level ridge to the south taking the system over cooler
SSTs. In the longer term the system is expected to weaken over open water well
away from the WA mainland.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1300 UTC 01/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 114.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [267 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h] reaching 35 knots on the southern
side
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 19.5S 110.9E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 988
+24: 02/1200: 19.3S 109.0E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 994
+36: 03/0000: 19.5S 107.9E: 120 [225]: 030 [055]: 993
+48: 03/1200: 19.9S 106.5E: 155 [285]: 030 [055]: 993
+60: 04/0000: 20.3S 104.9E: 200 [375]: 030 [055]: 993
+72: 04/1200: 20.6S 104.0E: 250 [465]: 030 [055]: 992
REMARKS:
The fix location during the day was weighted toward observations from offshore
platforms, though VIS imagery suggests a location slightly to the north and
east. The rapid translation [-20 knots] makes the surface location a little
tricky. It is notable that even with the rapid translation the cloud signature
indicates northeasterly shear, implying high level winds of greater than 20
knots.
Dvorak: Difficult to assign DT due to the uncertainty of low level centre
location. FT based on MET of 2.0 based on D- trend.
The system has a narrow window for development and may struggle to reach TC
intensity before reaching cooler waters by late Sunday. The system is also
forecast to slow down by Monday, which may actually be a result of some
weakening, but which will also increase system relative shear.
Model guidance is consistent with a general westerly track over the next 48
hours due to a strong mid level ridge to the south taking the system over cooler
SSTs. In the longer term the system is expected to weaken over open water well
away from the WA mainland.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TPXS11 PGTW 011823
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (NW OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA)
B. 01/1732Z
C. 19.4S
D. 112.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON THE LOG-10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (NW OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA)
B. 01/1732Z
C. 19.4S
D. 112.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON THE LOG-10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
KIENZLE
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: W. AUS: Tropical Low 06U (INVEST 98S TCFA) - cyclone warning
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
AROUND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, BUT HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AND TAKEN ON AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED APPEARANCE. A 011023Z
WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AND A 011332Z
METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A FEW POCKETS OF UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25KTS INCREASING TO 35KTS).
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO FALL OFF
RAPIDLY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BENEATH 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WITHIN
6 HOURS ALONG THE SYSTEMS TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
117.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING
AROUND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, BUT HAS WANED OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS AND TAKEN ON AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED APPEARANCE. A 011023Z
WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AND A 011332Z
METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A FEW POCKETS OF UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25KTS INCREASING TO 35KTS).
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO FALL OFF
RAPIDLY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BENEATH 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WITHIN
6 HOURS ALONG THE SYSTEMS TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
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After all of that...
AXAU01 APRF 020635
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0634 UTC 02/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.3S
Longitude: 110.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [250 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1800: 21.1S 107.6E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 993
+24: 03/0600: 21.4S 106.1E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 995
+36: 03/1800: 21.7S 104.6E: 120 [225]: 025 [045]: 995
+48: 04/0600: 21.8S 103.2E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 995
+60: 04/1800: 22.2S 102.4E: 200 [375]: 020 [035]: 998
+72: 05/0600: 22.4S 101.8E: 250 [465]: 020 [035]: 998
REMARKS:
Position based on recent IR, and VIS imagery. The position of the low was
relocated in the last 3 hours as the low level centre became more evident in the
recent imagery. The low has moved west-southwest at 15 knots over the last 12
hours.
Dvorak intensity based on DT=1.5 with insufficient deep convection. MET=1.0
based on W trend over the last 24 hours. PAT is adjusted to 1.5. FT is based on
DT/PAT.
ASCAT pass at 0230Z inidcated maximum winds of 30 knots in the southeast
quadrant.
The convection has weakened in the last 6 hours and given the cooler waters
along the forecast track it is unlikely that the system will intensify. The
large deck of stratocumulus adjacent to the system also indicates a stable
maritime boundary layer which will also inhibit development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
AXAU01 APRF 020635
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0634 UTC 02/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.3S
Longitude: 110.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [250 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1800: 21.1S 107.6E: 060 [110]: 030 [055]: 993
+24: 03/0600: 21.4S 106.1E: 090 [165]: 025 [045]: 995
+36: 03/1800: 21.7S 104.6E: 120 [225]: 025 [045]: 995
+48: 04/0600: 21.8S 103.2E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 995
+60: 04/1800: 22.2S 102.4E: 200 [375]: 020 [035]: 998
+72: 05/0600: 22.4S 101.8E: 250 [465]: 020 [035]: 998
REMARKS:
Position based on recent IR, and VIS imagery. The position of the low was
relocated in the last 3 hours as the low level centre became more evident in the
recent imagery. The low has moved west-southwest at 15 knots over the last 12
hours.
Dvorak intensity based on DT=1.5 with insufficient deep convection. MET=1.0
based on W trend over the last 24 hours. PAT is adjusted to 1.5. FT is based on
DT/PAT.
ASCAT pass at 0230Z inidcated maximum winds of 30 knots in the southeast
quadrant.
The convection has weakened in the last 6 hours and given the cooler waters
along the forecast track it is unlikely that the system will intensify. The
large deck of stratocumulus adjacent to the system also indicates a stable
maritime boundary layer which will also inhibit development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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Yep neat circulation but clearly something is causing the systems to struggle a little at the moment in the Aus region of the tropics...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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