IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 8:52 am WST on Thursday 30 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Wallal to Exmouth.
At 8:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
275 kilometres east northeast of Kununurra and
135 kilometres west southwest of Katherine and
moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Thursday or Friday. Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on
Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to
the Pilbara coast. By Sunday evening the system is likely to be north of
Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.
Heavy rainfall is expected in the north Kimberley over the next two days as the
system moves westwards. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the
Kimberley or Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 131.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
W. AUS: Tropical Low 06U (INVEST 98S) - last warning
Moderator: S2k Moderators
W. AUS: Tropical Low 06U (INVEST 98S) - last warning
Last edited by Chacor on Sun Jan 02, 2011 3:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
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AXAU01 APRF 300744
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0744 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 130.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 10 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800: 15.5S 128.0E: 080 [150]: 015 [030]: 1000
+24: 31/0600: 16.4S 125.2E: 110 [205]: 015 [030]: 998
+36: 31/1800: 17.6S 122.2E: 135 [250]: 025 [045]: 998
+48: 01/0600: 19.0S 118.8E: 170 [315]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 01/1800: 19.8S 116.0E: 200 [370]: 045 [085]: 990
+72: 02/0600: 20.4S 113.4E: 235 [435]: 045 [085]: 990
REMARKS:
The system was located using surface observations and visible satellite imagery
and was located over land under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Dvorak not assigned as system over land.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday or
early Saturday into favourable SSTs and may develop into a tropical cyclone by
010600UTC after spending between 6 and 12 hours over open water. The system is
likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Model guidance
indicates that it is likely to develop as a midget system and so it may reach
cyclone intensity after a relatively short period over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear it may experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is forecast to intensify to 45 knots [10 minute mean wind] although
further intensification to category 2 [50-60 knot mean winds] is possible,
particularly as the system is small.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0744 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 130.5E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 10 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800: 15.5S 128.0E: 080 [150]: 015 [030]: 1000
+24: 31/0600: 16.4S 125.2E: 110 [205]: 015 [030]: 998
+36: 31/1800: 17.6S 122.2E: 135 [250]: 025 [045]: 998
+48: 01/0600: 19.0S 118.8E: 170 [315]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 01/1800: 19.8S 116.0E: 200 [370]: 045 [085]: 990
+72: 02/0600: 20.4S 113.4E: 235 [435]: 045 [085]: 990
REMARKS:
The system was located using surface observations and visible satellite imagery
and was located over land under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Dvorak not assigned as system over land.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday or
early Saturday into favourable SSTs and may develop into a tropical cyclone by
010600UTC after spending between 6 and 12 hours over open water. The system is
likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Model guidance
indicates that it is likely to develop as a midget system and so it may reach
cyclone intensity after a relatively short period over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear it may experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is forecast to intensify to 45 knots [10 minute mean wind] although
further intensification to category 2 [50-60 knot mean winds] is possible,
particularly as the system is small.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 2:54 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.
At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
210 kilometres east northeast of Kununurra and
200 kilometres west southwest of Katherine and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Thursday or Friday. Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on
Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to
the Pilbara coast. By Sunday evening the system is likely to be north of
Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.
Heavy rainfall of 100mm to 150mm is expected in the North and West Kimberley
over the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises
with local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 130.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:54 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.
At 2:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
210 kilometres east northeast of Kununurra and
200 kilometres west southwest of Katherine and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Thursday or Friday. Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on
Saturday as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to
the Pilbara coast. By Sunday evening the system is likely to be north of
Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.
Heavy rainfall of 100mm to 150mm is expected in the North and West Kimberley
over the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises
with local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 130.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 30 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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AXAU01 APRF 301318
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 10 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0000: 16.1S 125.7E: 075 [140]: 015 [030]: 1000
+24: 31/1200: 17.3S 122.6E: 100 [185]: 025 [045]: 998
+36: 01/0000: 18.2S 119.3E: 130 [240]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 01/1200: 19.2S 116.2E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 987
+60: 02/0000: 20.0S 113.1E: 195 [360]: 050 [095]: 987
+72: 02/1200: 20.7S 110.7E: 230 [425]: 045 [085]: 989
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and Wyndham radar
under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Dvorak intensity not assigned as system over land.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday or
early Saturday into favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of
midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after
spending less than 12 hours over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.
The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [50 knots
10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term
northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [257 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 10 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0000: 16.1S 125.7E: 075 [140]: 015 [030]: 1000
+24: 31/1200: 17.3S 122.6E: 100 [185]: 025 [045]: 998
+36: 01/0000: 18.2S 119.3E: 130 [240]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 01/1200: 19.2S 116.2E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 987
+60: 02/0000: 20.0S 113.1E: 195 [360]: 050 [095]: 987
+72: 02/1200: 20.7S 110.7E: 230 [425]: 045 [085]: 989
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and Wyndham radar
under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Dvorak intensity not assigned as system over land.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday or
early Saturday into favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of
midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after
spending less than 12 hours over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.
The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [50 knots
10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term
northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:59 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.
At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
30 kilometres northwest of Kununurra and
45 kilometres east southeast of Wyndham and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Friday but gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a
brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel
to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west.
Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Kuri Bay and Wallal including
Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain overnight from
Friday into Saturday morning.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley over
the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises with
local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the latest
Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause
flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 128.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:59 pm WST on Thursday 30 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.
At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
30 kilometres northwest of Kununurra and
45 kilometres east southeast of Wyndham and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west
Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause
gales on Friday but gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a
brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel
to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and
continuing to move towards the west.
Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Kuri Bay and Wallal including
Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain overnight from
Friday into Saturday morning.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley over
the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises with
local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the latest
Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause
flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 128.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.
At 2:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
390 kilometres east northeast of Derby and
140 kilometres west of Wyndham and
moving west at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.
While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley
today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 126.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Wallal to Exmouth.
At 2:00 am WST a Tropical Low was estimated to be over land,
390 kilometres east northeast of Derby and
140 kilometres west of Wyndham and
moving west at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.
While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley
today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.6 degrees South 126.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 126.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 16.5S 123.8E: 075 [140]: 020 [035]: 998
+24: 31/1800: 17.6S 120.7E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 01/0600: 18.7S 117.4E: 130 [240]: 050 [095]: 992
+48: 01/1800: 19.9S 114.4E: 155 [285]: 055 [100]: 987
+60: 02/0600: 20.8S 111.6E: 195 [360]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 02/1800: 21.1S 109.7E: 230 [425]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and Wyndham radar
under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Dvorak intensity not assigned as system over land.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into
favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the
system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than
12 hours over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.
The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [55 knots
10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term
northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 30/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 126.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [261 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/0600: 16.5S 123.8E: 075 [140]: 020 [035]: 998
+24: 31/1800: 17.6S 120.7E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 996
+36: 01/0600: 18.7S 117.4E: 130 [240]: 050 [095]: 992
+48: 01/1800: 19.9S 114.4E: 155 [285]: 055 [100]: 987
+60: 02/0600: 20.8S 111.6E: 195 [360]: 050 [095]: 988
+72: 02/1800: 21.1S 109.7E: 230 [425]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations and Wyndham radar
under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Dvorak intensity not assigned as system over land.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into
favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the
system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than
12 hours over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.
The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [55 knots
10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term
northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: Overland Australia: INVEST 98S (cyclone watch issued)
AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 128.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY, AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, VERIFY
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW TO THE POLEWARD SIDE HAS ALSO IMPROVED.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXISTS IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW. SATELLITE AND RADAR ANIMATION INDICATE ONSHORE
FLOW IS ORGANIZING INTO CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
A PROJECTED TRACK OFF-SHORE INTO EXTREMELY WARM WATERS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY, AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, VERIFY
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW TO THE POLEWARD SIDE HAS ALSO IMPROVED.
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXISTS IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW. SATELLITE AND RADAR ANIMATION INDICATE ONSHORE
FLOW IS ORGANIZING INTO CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
A PROJECTED TRACK OFF-SHORE INTO EXTREMELY WARM WATERS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 8:50 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
390 kilometres east northeast of Broome and
230 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.
While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley
today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 125.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:50 am WST on Friday 31 December 2010
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal
to Exmouth
At 8:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be over land,
390 kilometres east northeast of Broome and
230 kilometres northeast of Derby and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning
after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west
Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a
period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes
by.
While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast
on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be
north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.
Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley
today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the
latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to
cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Wallal and Exmouth should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.0 degrees South 125.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Friday 31 December.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Now forecast for 70 kt: from 15 kt to 70 kt in 48 hours.
AXAU01 APRF 310134
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0134 UTC 31/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 125.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 16.9S 122.3E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 01/0000: 17.9S 119.0E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 01/1200: 19.1S 115.9E: 130 [240]: 060 [110]: 987
+48: 02/0000: 20.2S 113.0E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 971
+60: 02/1200: 20.9S 110.6E: 195 [360]: 060 [110]: 978
+72: 03/0000: 21.0S 109.0E: 230 [425]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations, satellite images
and Wyndham radar under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into
favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the
system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than
12 hours over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.
The system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and should reach
category 3 in 48 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to encounter
cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
AXAU01 APRF 310134
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0134 UTC 31/12/2010
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 125.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 15 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 16.9S 122.3E: 070 [130]: 030 [055]: 998
+24: 01/0000: 17.9S 119.0E: 100 [185]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 01/1200: 19.1S 115.9E: 130 [240]: 060 [110]: 987
+48: 02/0000: 20.2S 113.0E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 971
+60: 02/1200: 20.9S 110.6E: 195 [360]: 060 [110]: 978
+72: 03/0000: 21.0S 109.0E: 230 [425]: 040 [075]: 992
REMARKS:
The system was located over land using surface observations, satellite images
and Wyndham radar under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid
level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into
favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the
system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than
12 hours over open water.
Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the
direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions.
The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given
its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the
southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a
relatively short period.
The system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and should reach
category 3 in 48 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to encounter
cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further development.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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