W. AUS: INVEST 99S

[Chacor]

31/1432 UTC 13.0S 109.5E T1.5/1.5 99S -- Southeast Indian



A second low was located near 12.0S 109.2E at 11am WST Friday. It is expected to
drift slowly south and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during
the outlook period.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday :Low
Sunday :Low
Monday :Low

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 109.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND
FORMATION OF CONVERGENT BANDING NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311355Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 30KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC, WITH 20KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SIDES. A 311350Z TRMM 85GHZ PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER, BUT THE
LLCC IS STILL EXPOSED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20-25KTS OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THAT IS ANALYZED IN THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW INTO A DIFFLUENT
REGION ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S
109.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PULSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. A 011022Z CORIOLIS IMAGE SHOWS GOOD
ORGANIZATION AT THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT A 011133Z AMSU DOESN'T SHOW
GOOD ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SUBJECT TO MODERATE (20KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.