SPAC: Tropical Disturbance 02F

[Chacor]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 02/0037 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 23.0S 161.1W
AT 012100 UTC MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AND
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH, TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE
IT SOUTHWARDS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.