SPAC: VANIA (03F/05P) - Tropical Cyclone

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SPAC: VANIA (03F/05P) - Tropical Cyclone

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 08, 2011 9:28 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 08/2256 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.0S 172.0E
AT 082100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN THE LAST 12
HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.


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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 1:51 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5S
173.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY
95NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. VANUATU STATIONS REPORTED 24 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 MB AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED.
THE LLCC IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND REMAINS
WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. THE 090000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC,
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS OF
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS WELL-DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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#3 Postby KWT » Sun Jan 09, 2011 6:10 am

I think this is the area the ECM has been picking up on in the last few days. Doesn't look too bad and I wouldn't be surprised if this is our next region to watch in the next week...
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:12 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/0838 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 170.0E AT
090600UTC. MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH
DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.


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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:13 pm

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convection is increasing
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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:51 pm

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large disturbance
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:51 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/2345 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.8S 169.4E AT
092100UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

TD03F LIES ALONG A MONSSONAL TROUGH, UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ITS
ORGANISATION. LLCC REMAINS OBSUCRED.CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS/NOGAPS] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY
MOVING IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:24 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5S
173.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 169.6E, APPROXIMATELY
95NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND CONSOLIDATED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. VANUATU STATIONS REPORTED 24 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 MB AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED.
THE LLCC IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND REMAINS
WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. THE 090000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC,
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT WITH APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS OF
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS WELL-DEVELOPED
OUTFLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)

#9 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:30 pm

I think the next name is "Vania".
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:36 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/0203 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 997HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.1S
169.8E AT 100000 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

TD03F LIES ALONG A MONSSONAL TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF A 250 HPA
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED ITS ORGANISATION. LLCC REMAINS OBSUCRED. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS/NOGAPS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY MOVING IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
0800UTC.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)

#11 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:00 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/0815 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 997HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S
170.1E AT 100600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

TD03F LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION INCREASING IN
AERIAL COVERAGE WITH TOPS COOLING. THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ITS
ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LLCC REMAINS OBSUCRED. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS/NOGAPS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM, SLOW
MOVING WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
1400UTC.
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#12 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:30 am

10/0832 UTC 17.7S 170.0E T1.5/1.5 93P -- Southwest Pacific
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)

#13 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:41 am

Image

Latest
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#14 Postby KWT » Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:53 am

Seems like a reasonable chance this one develops.

ECM on its 00z run develops this into quite a strong system this time....
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 10, 2011 11:59 am

Image

Latest
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 10, 2011 12:11 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1352 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 997HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.6S
169.9E AT 101200 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

TD03F LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION INCREASING IN
AERIAL COVERAGE WITH TOPS COOLING. THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ITS
ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LLCC REMAINS OBSCURED. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS/NOGAPS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND
SLOWLY MOVING IT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
2000UTC.
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 10, 2011 2:36 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
169.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE NEAREST REPORTING STATION,
BAUERFIELD EFATE, VANUATU, IS REPORTING 03 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALLS.
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED, A 100252Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 100000Z UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN A
REGION OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND AN AVERAGE OF 10 KTS OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED AND THERE IS NOW RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE
DATA REPORTS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 10, 2011 4:53 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/1957 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 995HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.6S
170.0E AT 101800 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING AROUND LLCC WITH TOPS COOLING IN THE LAST 3
TO 6 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION ALMOST STEADY PAST 24 HOURS. TD03F
LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION
AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110200 UTC.
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#19 Postby KWT » Mon Jan 10, 2011 7:40 pm

It does really look like its trying to wrap itself up at the moment.

12z ECM still really keen in ramping this system up into a decent storm, so will have to ait and see. 18z GFS also ramps this up...so decent agreement on this developing into a fully fledged storm.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 10, 2011 8:41 pm

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Looking better
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