SIO: VINCE (09U/06S) - Tropical Cyclone

[Grifforzer]

AXAU01 APRF 130103
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 13/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/1200: 15.6S 111.8E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 14/0000: 16.0S 113.9E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 977
+36: 14/1200: 16.4S 115.1E: 120 [225]: 060 [110]: 972
+48: 15/0000: 17.0S 114.9E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 964
+60: 15/1200: 17.0S 113.8E: 200 [375]: 065 [120]: 969
+72: 16/0000: 17.0S 112.2E: 250 [465]: 055 [100]: 977
REMARKS:
The system remains under approx 15 knots of shear, with shear decreasing due to
a retrogressing upper trough. Conditions are favourable for development over the
next 48 hours.
Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern, with the LLCC moving closer to deep
convection over the past 12 hours as shear decreased. Some difficulty in
discerning LLCC overnight and on recent vis imagery.
TC Vince is forecast to move slowly east-southeast before it recurves westwards
around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours].
The system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological rate until it
begins its westwards movement. After this, shear and SST's become less
favourable and the system should weaken.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.9S 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.1S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.5S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.8S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.4S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.2S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 109.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT WHILE CONVECTION
HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS ELONGATED IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WITH A 130031Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTING A CENTER WEST OF CURRENT AGENCY FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 T0 45 KNOTS FROM APRF, PGTW, AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
BURST EQUATORWARD OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE, BEHIND A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFS, WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY PULLED BACK ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE NOGAPS AND GFS ARE
WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM AND DECREASING THE STEERING LEVEL MORE THAN
EXPECTED, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THEN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFDN, WBAR, AND EGRR MODEL GROUPING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[KWT]

Its got an interesting look right now, it seems to have evolved into something like a Comma low right now.

[HURAKAN]

shear taking over

[Grifforzer]

AXAU01 APRF 131257
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1256 UTC 13/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 110.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [105 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0000: 16.2S 112.0E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 984
+24: 14/1200: 16.3S 113.2E: 090 [165]: 060 [110]: 976
+36: 15/0000: 16.7S 113.2E: 120 [220]: 070 [130]: 967
+48: 15/1200: 16.8S 112.6E: 150 [280]: 065 [120]: 971
+60: 16/0000: 16.9S 111.5E: 180 [335]: 055 [100]: 980
+72: 16/1200: 16.6S 110.1E: 225 [415]: 045 [085]: 987
REMARKS:
There has been some difficulty determining the systems location as VIS imagery
has been poor during the day. However a recent SSMIS pass has assisted in
locating the LLCC and also shows a lack of deep convection near the system
centre. Conditions are considered moderately favourable for development over the
next 24-36 hours. CIMSS 12 UTC analysis indicates shear of about 15 knots.
It has been difficult to obtain a DT from VIS/IR imagery due to the lack of
convection near the system centre. The 24 hour IR comparisons have shown the
system to be slightly less organised than yesterday hence a weakening trend [W-]
has been assigned. This has given a MET of 2.0/2.5 over the last 3 hours. No
adjustment has been applied so CI has been held 0.5/1.0 higher than MET at 3.0.
ASCAT passes have shown 30 to 40 knots around the system and recent intensity
estimates from SATCON/AMSU and ADT agree.
TC Vince is forecast to move east-southeast before it recurves westwards around
12Z on 14 Jan. The system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological
rate until approx 12 hours after starting its westwards movement. After this,
shear and SST's become less favourable and the system should weaken.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

LLC running away from the convection

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1849 UTC 13/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 111.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [105 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/3.0/W-0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0600: 16.2S 112.6E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 980
+24: 14/1800: 16.5S 113.3E: 090 [165]: 060 [115]: 971
+36: 15/0600: 16.8S 112.9E: 120 [220]: 060 [115]: 970
+48: 15/1800: 16.9S 112.0E: 150 [280]: 060 [105]: 976
+60: 16/0600: 16.8S 110.9E: 180 [335]: 050 [090]: 983
+72: 16/1800: 16.5S 109.0E: 225 [415]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
System is difficult to locate on IR image, but a recent CB development appears
consistent with current centre location. Conditions are considered moderately
favourable for development over the next 24-36 hours. CIMSS 12 UTC analysis
indicates shear of about 15 knots.

It has been difficult to obtain a DT from VIS/IR imagery due to the lack of
convection near the system centre. The 24 hour IR comparisons have shown the
system to be slightly less organised than yesterday hence a weakening trend [W-]
has been assigned. This has given a MET of 2.0 over the last 6 hours. No
adjustment has been applied so CI has been held 0.5/1.0 higher than MET at 3.0.
ASCAT passes have shown 30 to 40 knots around the system and recent intensity
estimates from SATCON/AMSU and ADT agree.

TC Vince is forecast to move east-southeast before it recurves westwards around
12Z on 14 Jan. The system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological
rate until approx 12 hours after starting its westwards movement. After this,
shear and SST's become less favourable and the system should weaken.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest Track

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 167.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 167.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.8S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.5S 167.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.0S 167.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 27.2S 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 31.6S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 167.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131814Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO DUE TO THE
OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
SKIRT THE EASTERN COAST OF NEW CALEDONIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
SST AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. TC 05P IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND BECOME A GALE
FORCE LOW BY TAU 72; HOWEVER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE COMPLETING ET. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0101 UTC 14/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 112.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [102 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/1200: 16.3S 113.8E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 990
+24: 15/0000: 15.7S 114.0E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 994
+36: 15/1200: 15.4S 113.7E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 994
+48: 16/0000: 15.2S 112.9E: 160 [295]: 030 [055]: 994
+60: 16/1200: 15.7S 111.6E: 195 [360]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 17/0000: 16.4S 109.6E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
LLCC is visible to the NE of the limited convection associated with the system.
Prior to 17Z there was no signnificant convection near the LLCC. Dvorak is based
on a shear pattern with the LLCC near the overcast for the last 3 hours giving a
DT of 3.0, but a MET of 2.5 based on a W- trend. PAT agrees with MET and FT and
CI are set at 2.5 [CI already having been held higher than FT for more than 12
hours]. ADT indicates CI of around 2.7 whilst SATCON is indicating 1-minute
winds of 47 knots [at 20Z] influenced by AMSU intensity estimates of around 50
knots [1-minute]. Final intesnity is held at 40 knots.

CIMSS 18 UTC analysis indicates shear of about 15 knots. Shear is expected to
increase from tonight and the system is unlikely to intensify beyond its current
marginal TC intensity.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... sheared

[HURAKAN]

le'burst

[HURAKAN]

Center just east of the blow-up of convection, classic shear

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[KWT]

Yep classic sheared presentation, probably 55-60kts right now based on that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... dropped by BoM, but I think that was a mistake

[HURAKAN]

poor Vince

[Crostorm]