SIO: VINCE (09U/06S) - Tropical Cyclone

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#21 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 5:42 pm

11/2032 UTC 14.5S 107.0E T2.0/2.0 91S -- Southeast Indian

30 knots
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Re: SIO: TC Vince (09U)

#22 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:31 pm

** WTAU05 APRF 120045 ***
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:15S107E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0045UTC 12 JANUARY 2011

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Vince was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal nine south (14.9S)
longitude one hundred and seven decimal one east (107.1E)
Recent movement : near stationary.
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 987 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots, increasing to 55 knots by 0000 UTC 13 January.

By 1800 UTC 12 January winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre
with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 12 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.1 south 108.2 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 13 January: Within 85 nautical miles of 15.3 south 110.1 east
Central pressure 979 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 12 January 2011.
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#23 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:57 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0051 UTC 12/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 107.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: Stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/1200: 15.1S 108.2E: 055 [100]: 045 [085]: 984
+24: 13/0000: 15.3S 110.1E: 085 [155]: 055 [100]: 979
+36: 13/1200: 16.1S 112.3E: 125 [230]: 060 [110]: 976
+48: 14/0000: 16.9S 114.0E: 155 [285]: 070 [130]: 967
+60: 14/1200: 17.6S 114.8E: 195 [360]: 080 [150]: 958
+72: 15/0000: 18.1S 114.3E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 954
REMARKS:
The shear analysis is around 20 knots from CMISS. The shear is expected
decreased due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the
relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty
as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be
much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The separation between the LLCC and the CDO is within 0.5 degrees. The Dvorak
analysis is based on shear pattern giving DT of 3.0. Pattern T agrees with the
DT so final T number is 3.0.

The system has been stationary over the last 6 hours, and all models indicate it
will start to recurve towards the southeast. It is then expected to again
recurve, this time to head westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There
is significant divergence between the models on how fast the system will move
while on the east southeastwards track, however all models now agree on no
coastal impact to the Pilbara, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the
next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates favourable
conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to intensify at roughly
the climatological rate.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:03 pm

Image

Latest track
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#25 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:07 pm

Image

strong shear
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#26 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 7:00 am

Yep strong shear there, though the models still suggests a decent system develops in the end...we will see!

Its been upgraded now by the way, track takes it ESE though the longer term is for a track to swing back westwards.
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#27 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:21 am

Image

Can we get the title updated, please?

Latest image
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:22 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1249 UTC 12/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 108.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [106 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0000: 15.5S 109.7E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 982
+24: 13/1200: 16.0S 111.8E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 981
+36: 14/0000: 16.8S 113.8E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 973
+48: 14/1200: 17.3S 114.8E: 150 [280]: 065 [120]: 968
+60: 15/0000: 17.5S 114.7E: 185 [345]: 070 [130]: 963
+72: 15/1200: 18.1S 113.4E: 230 [425]: 065 [120]: 967
REMARKS:
The shear analysis is around 20 knots from CIMSS. The shear is expected to
decrease due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the
relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty
as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be
much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

The Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern. The separation between the LLCC
and the CDO has varied over the last 15 hours between 0.5 and 1.25 of a degree.
This has given DT between 2.0 and 3.0 and at 21z on 11 January DT/CI was
assigned at 3.0. The last 6 hours of visible imagery has yielded DT's of between
2.0 and 2.5, the recent 3 hour average being 2.5. The recent IR imagery has
yielded a DT of 3.0. Therefore FT is 2.5, weighted to the 3 hour visible
average, and CI has been held at half a T number higher, at 3.0.

TC Vince is forecast to move slowly east-southeast over the next 48 hours. It is
then expected to recurve westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is
some divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the
east southeastwards track, however all models now agree on no coastal impact to
the Pilbara, with the system recurving well off the coast.

STIPS and model guidance generally do not show strong intensification during the
next 48 hours but an assessment of the synoptic conditions indicates there may
be favourable conditions for development, hence the system is forecast to
intensify at nearly the climatological rate until it begins a westwards
movement. After this, shear and SST's become less favourable and the system
should weaken.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#29 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:22 am

Still looks sheared based on that presentation however at least it is holding the convection over the center now.
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#30 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:23 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1246UTC 12 JANUARY 2011

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Vince was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal two south (15.2S)
longitude one hundred and eight decimal four east (108.4E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 986 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0600 UTC 13
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell by 0600 UTC 13 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 13 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.5 south 109.7 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 13 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.0 south 111.8 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 12 January 2011.

WEATHER PERTH


Image
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:24 am

Image

WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751JAN2011//
NAR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (VINCE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 108.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 108.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.4S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.9S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.3S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.1S 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.1S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.6S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.7S 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 108.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION BUILDING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
BUT STILL SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 121151Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS A VERY
WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH UNORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET
TO THE WEST, WITH SOME WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER
MODERATE (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BUT CURRENT MOTION
BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO A REGION OF LOWER VWS. TC 06S WAS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. THE APPROACH OF A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE STR
AND NOW SYSTEM MOTION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES
NEAR THE EQUATOR. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
48, FOLLOWING WHICH THE STR WILL BUILD BACK IN AND ONCE AGAIN BECOME
THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE AND STEER THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE
WEST. DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD BE
GREATLY IMPROVED. OUTFLOW, LOWER VWS, AND INCREASED OCEAN HEAT
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE
THE REBUILDING OF THE STR INCREASES VWS AND REDUCES OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH
BRINGS THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 120751Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS22 PGTW 120800) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.
//
NNNN
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#32 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:59 am

Decent agreement from the models now and its similar to both the agencies forecasts.

Certainly an interesting track with several abrupt track changes if that comes off!
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#33 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jan 12, 2011 11:11 am

758
TXXS21 KNES 121525


A. 06S (VINCE)

B. 12/1432Z

C. 15.3S

D. 108.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/XX.X/XXHRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LLC IS NOW LESS THAN 1/2 DEGREE FROM DEEP CONVECTION
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET IS A 2.5. PT AGREES WITH MET. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1319Z 15.3S 108.7E SSMIS


...NEWHARD
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#34 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 11:25 am

Image

latest vater vapor
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Re: SIO: VINCE (09U/06S) - Tropical Cyclone

#35 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jan 12, 2011 12:01 pm

And the swith has been turned on in the Southern Hemisphere, if the models and the seasonal outlooks are right this could be only the beggining of a very active period in the Australian and South Pacific basins.
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#36 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 2:06 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1845 UTC 12/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 109.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east [098 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 13/0600: 15.6S 110.8E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 980
+24: 13/1800: 16.2S 113.1E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 977
+36: 14/0600: 17.0S 114.5E: 120 [220]: 060 [110]: 972
+48: 14/1800: 17.3S 115.0E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 962
+60: 15/0600: 17.7S 114.3E: 185 [345]: 070 [130]: 964
+72: 15/1800: 18.3S 112.5E: 230 [425]: 060 [110]: 971
REMARKS:
The system remains under decent shear of around 20 knots which is expected to
decrease due to a retrogressing upper trough with conditions becoming more
favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern. The separation between the LLCC and
the CDO has varied over the past 24 hours giving DT of 2.0 to 3.0 though
overnight the separation steadied at around 0.5 degrees for a period before the
cold overcast became more removed from the LLCC in the last few hours. FT is 2.5
and CI has been held half a T number higher at 3.0. Latest ASCAT pass shows
marginal gales around the system.

TC Vince is forecast to move slowly east-southeast before it recurves westwards
around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is some divergence between the models
on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track, however
all models now agree on no coastal impact to the Pilbara, with the system
recurving well off the coast.

Assuming a decrease in shear, the system is forecast to intensify at nearly the
climatological rate until it begins its westwards movement. After this, shear
and SST's become less favourable and the system should weaken.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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#37 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 2:07 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1847UTC 12 JANUARY 2011

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Vince was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal three south (15.3S)
longitude one hundred and nine decimal one east (109.1E)
Recent movement : east at 7 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 986 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1800 UTC 13
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate to heavy swell by 0600 UTC 13 January.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 13 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.6 south 110.8 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 13 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 16.2 south 113.1 east
Central pressure 977 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 13 January 2011.

WEATHER PERTH


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#38 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 3:41 pm

That shear is going to have to ease up if that agressive forecast is to come off as quickly as they expect...

We will see, things can sometimes change at a rate of knots!
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#39 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 12, 2011 6:20 pm

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#40 Postby KWT » Wed Jan 12, 2011 7:53 pm

18z GFS doesn't even develop this region any further, looking at the shear that may not be a bad call right now...
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