SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Crostorm]

Nice circulation on radar
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-l ... 1-01-12-23


Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:36pm EST on Wednesday the 12th of January 2011 and valid until end
of Saturday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
The monsoon trough is situated over north Queensland and is extending across the
northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to strengthen over the next
few days and a low may develop over the northern Coral Sea by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: Very low
Friday: Very low
Saturday: Low

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day:
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[KWT]

Very interesting looking system, the models now are suggestive of something forming from this system in the next 24-48hrs but it looks like its going to be forced SSE and follow the path of Vania.

[Rod Hagen]

The path of this one is of huge importance to flood ravaged Queensland, KWT.

How solid is the picture with respect to its future path?

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0134UTC 13 JANUARY 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 90 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal nine south (14.9S)
longitude one hundred and fifty one decimal zero east (151.0E)
Recent movement :near stationary
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24
hours.

AREA AFFECTED
##

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0000 UTC 14
January.

Very rough seas developing.


Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 13 January: Within 120 nautical miles of 13.4 south 151.6 east
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 14 January: Within 150 nautical miles of 13.1 south 152.6 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 13 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[Rod Hagen]

We will certainly be hoping it keeps up that easterly trend, Hurrikan!

[HURAKAN]

hopefully it moves away from Australia

[Crostorm]

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 12:20pm EST on Thursday the 13th of January 2011 and valid until end
of Sunday

Existing cyclones:
Nil.

Potential cyclones:
The monsoon trough is situated over north Queensland and is extending across the
northern Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to strengthen over the next
few days and a low may develop over the northern Coral Sea by Friday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: moderate
Saturday: moderate
Sunday: high

[Rod Hagen]

Indeed . Even catching the edge of it could be catastrophic if it headed more southerly.

[HURAKAN]

Latest loop

[HURAKAN]

GFS



NGP

[Rod Hagen]

Thanks again Hurrikan. If that holds good we will certainly be happy with it.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 14.0S 149.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 130930Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 149.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 149.7E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 130356Z AMSR-E
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES AN
ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC WHICH HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED
OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE-DERIVED SST
RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE 24 HR SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 03 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141000Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

Latest technical bulletin for Tropical Low 10U.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 13/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 149.6E
Location Accuracy: within 120 nm [220 km]
Movement Towards: north northwest [346 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0000: 13.2S 150.8E: 150 [280]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 14/1200: 14.4S 152.1E: 180 [335]: 040 [075]: 989
+36: 15/0000: 16.0S 153.1E: 210 [395]: 035 [065]: 994
+48: 15/1200: 17.4S 155.2E: 245 [455]: 040 [075]: 993
+60: 16/0000: 19.5S 158.4E: 290 [540]: 040 [075]: 992
+72: 16/1200: 22.1S 161.8E: 330 [610]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Shear pattern less than 3/4 degree giving DT of 2.5

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC

[HURAKAN]

13/1432 UTC 12.9S 150.4E T2.0/2.0 94P -- Southwest Pacific

30 knots

[HURAKAN]

TXPS22 KNES 131525


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94P)

B. 13/1432Z

C. 12.9S

D. 150.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SMALL COMPACT SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES
SEEN IN MICROWAVE SUITE WITH SOME FEATURES STILL DISTINGUISHABLE ON
SWIR... BANDING IS .3 THOUGH CDO METHOD WOULD LIKELY BE PREFERRED GIVEN
SIZE OF CLUSTER...DT IS 2.0. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 2.0 FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

[CrazyC83]

Every step is very important with this storm. It has to go east or we could watch catastrophe turn into cataclysm. All that convection on the edge is just creating more problems with a devastated region.

[HURAKAN]

GFS



NGP



CMC



UKM

[HurricaneBill]

If this becomes a storm, who will name it? Australia or Papua New Guinea?