SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[GCANE]

Small but a very strong eyewall

[GCANE]

PV has made it to the surface and extends relatively high due to the anti-cyclone directly overhead.

Small RMW at 125 km.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

What a wonderful looking system, quite a quick brewer as well really!

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive little system

[Macrocane]

Now a Severe Tropical Cyclone. Latest BOM bulletin:

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 16/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 156.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [128 deg]
Speed of Movement: 23 knots [43 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 20.4S 160.3E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 965
+24: 17/0000: 24.6S 163.4E: 105 [195]: 065 [120]: 972
+36: 17/1200: 28.5S 166.3E: 130 [240]: 045 [085]: 984
+48: 18/0000: 32.7S 169.0E: 160 [295]: 035 [065]: 989
+60: 18/1200: 36.7S 172.1E: 200 [370]: 035 [065]: 987
+72: 19/0000: 40.7S 175.2E: 245 [455]: 035 [065]: 985
REMARKS:
Eye pattern with LG surround and OW centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT 4.5 and PT 5.0.
FT based on DT.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified during late Saturday and
into Sunday morning while moving in a favourable environment with high sea
surface temperatures and weak wind shear. Zelia has also begun to increase in
speed this morning with the development of an upper trough across the western
Coral Sea, allowing northwesterly mid level steering to develop.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

much better image

[HURAKAN]

Putting up a show

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 004
WTPS32 PGTW 160300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 156.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 156.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.9S 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.8S 164.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 29.1S 167.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.6S 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 157.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[Macrocane]

IMO the JTWC is being really conservative with this system, the outflow, the banding and the well defined eye suggests a stronger cyclone.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Three different agencies warning on this system today,I show some of the differences in todays video.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPDm0WG8Eyk[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

Impressive eyewall

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

HURRICANE WARNING 029 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/0729 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA CENTRE 957HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0 SOUTH
158.7 EAST AT 160600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 19.0S 158.7E AT 160600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHEAST AND

NORTHWEST QUADRANTS, WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE

SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN
THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.8S 162.1E AT 161800 UTC
AND NEAR 27.3S 165.5E AT 170600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[Crostorm]

IDQ20008
PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0706UTC 16 JANUARY 2011

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia was centred within 20 nautical miles
of latitude nineteen decimal zero south (19.0S) longitude one hundred and fifty
eight decimal seven east (158.7E)
Recent movement : southeast at 24 knots
Maximum winds : 85 knots
Central pressure: 957 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle and within
100 nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 85 knots near the centre, reducing to 80 knots by 1800 UTC 16
January.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high to
phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with high seas to very
high seas.

Winds above 34 knots within up to 120 nautical miles in the northern semicircle
and up to 100 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

Moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 16 January: Within 70 nautical miles of 22.8 south 162.1 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 17 January: Within 100 nautical miles of 27.3 south 165.5 east
Central pressure 971 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by RSMC Nadi.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

Starting to weaken

[HURAKAN]

very small eye

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WARNING 030 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 16/1318 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA CENTRE 957HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH
160.7 EAST AT 161200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 160.7E AT 161200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
AND
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.2S 163.8E AT 170000 UTC
AND NEAR 28.1S 166.7E AT 171200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 029.