#23 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:35 pm
WTPS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 150.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 150.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.7S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.9S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.7S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.7S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.0S 164.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.1S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 36.2S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 151.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU
12 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU
72, BUT MAY INTENSIFY MORE SLOWLY IN THE EARLIER TAUS DUE TO
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 130951Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 131000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (VANIA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
0 likes
I hope the agencies don't ignore the microwave as they usually do, Zelia must be at least 65-70 kt (1 min winds).
