SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:52 am

Image

beautiful pic of Zelia
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#102 Postby KWT » Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:43 pm

Does look like Zelia may have just passed its peak looking at the latest microwave imagery with the east side looking rather eroded now.
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#103 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:50 pm

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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#104 Postby GCANE » Sun Jan 16, 2011 2:44 pm

Inversion in the boundary layer of the eyewall has knocked the core down quite a bit.



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#105 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:07 pm

Great Microwave loop Gcane!
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#106 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 8:44 pm

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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:33 pm

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 17/0226 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS ANALYSED
NEAR 24.9S 165.0E AT 170000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS. CYCLONE WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BANDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH NORTH BAND
INFLUENCED BY NEW CALEDONIA LAND MASS. EYE REMAINS CLOUD FILLED.
OUTFLOW FAIR BUT DECREASING TO NORTH AND SOUTH. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY REGIME.
CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING INTO A WEAK SHEARED ENVIROMENT AND COOLER
SST. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON EMBD CENTRE WITH MG SURR, YIELDING DT
4.5 MET=4.5 PT=4.0. FT BASED ON MET, THUS T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID 171200 UTC 28.9S 168.0E MOV SSE AT 25 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID 180000 UTC 33.2S 170.6E MOV SSE AT 25 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID 181200 UTC 37.6S 173.5E MOV SSE AT 25 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID 190000 UTC 41.3S 177.2E MOV SE AT 25 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC ZELIA.
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#108 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:35 pm

Image

WTPS32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 24.8S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 30.3S 168.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 36.4S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 165.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ZELIA HAS INCREASED IN SPEED AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK DOWN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN A MODIFIED HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN AS A MIDGET CYCLONE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A 4.0/4.5 DVORAK EMBEDDED CENTER FIX
FROM PGTW. AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 12,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNFAVORABLE, AND ZELIA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN
EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12,
AND ZELIA WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#109 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:59 am

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#110 Postby KWT » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:37 am

Wow system looks on its way out right now, much weaken then it looked even 12hrs ago...
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#111 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:58 am

Image

WTPS32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (ZELIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 29.9S 169.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9S 169.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 35.9S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 170.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (ZELIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE ITS LATITUDE AND COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ZELIA MAINTAINS MOST OF ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES POLEWARD IN THE MOIST WAKE
(VERIFIED BY CIMMS TPW) OF THE FORMER TC 05P. A 06Z CIRA AMSU RADIAL
CROSS SECTION INDICATES A WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ALOFT, CONFIRMING
THE SYSTEM IS STILL TROPICAL. BECAUSE OF WHICH ZELIA DOES NOT MEET
THE JTWC CRITERIA FOR A FINAL WARNING AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS
CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEPLETING NEAR THE CENTER, AND AS A RESULT THE
LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW HAS DROPPED TO A 3.0/4.0
OR 45 TO 65 KNOTS. THE INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE AVERAGE OF
THESE TWO VALUES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION OFFSHORE
OF NEW ZEALAND WITHIN 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 24 FEET.//
NNNN
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#112 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:11 pm

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Not much left
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#113 Postby P.K. » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:23 pm

No longer a TC.

GALE WARNING 333
This affects ocean area(s): SUBTROPIC
AT 7:00am Tuesday 18 January 2011

Low 990hPa near 32S 170E moving southeast 30kt.
1. Within 180 nautical miles of low in sector from northwest through northeast to south: Clockwise 45kt at times.
2. Within 120 nautical miles of low in sector from south through west to northwest: Clockwise 45kt at times.
Gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 322.

Issued at 7:48am Tuesday 18 January 2011
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