SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#61 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:54 am

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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:23 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1303 UTC 15/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [125 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0000: 17.0S 156.5E: 085 [155]: 075 [140]: 968
+24: 16/1200: 20.1S 160.4E: 110 [205]: 070 [130]: 970
+36: 17/0000: 24.6S 163.8E: 145 [270]: 075 [140]: 964
+48: 17/1200: 29.6S 166.2E: 180 [335]: 045 [085]: 984
+60: 18/0000: 35.3S 167.7E: 220 [405]: 035 [065]: 989
+72: 18/1200: 38.8S 170.3E: 280 [520]: 035 [065]: 985
REMARKS:
Embedded centre pattern with Black surround, giving a DT of 5.0. MT and PT both
suggest 4.5. FT based on PT and supporting ship observations.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified during Saturday evening
while in a favourable environment with weak wind shear and high sea surface
temperatures. Recent IR satellite imagery has indicated that a ragged eye
pattern may be developing.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1900 UTC by Brisbane
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#63 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:29 am

15/0832 UTC 15.2S 152.5E T4.0/4.0 ZELIA -- Southwest Pacific

65 knots
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#64 Postby GCANE » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:40 am

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Really looking much more organized these last several hours, here is my newest video on this and also Vania, I made sure to give storm2k a shoutout here near the end. Let me know what you guys thinks.


Another great video - thanks Rob.
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#65 Postby GCANE » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:50 am

Core at 2C. PV just about at the surface.

Moving into a very strong anti-cyclone.

Strong cell just about ontop of the COC.

IMHO, could RI if a hot tower fires off.



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Image


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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#66 Postby Crostorm » Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:43 am

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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#67 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:59 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1911 UTC 15/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 154.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [109 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [34 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: 5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 260 nm [480 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 18.3S 158.5E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 968
+24: 16/1800: 21.8S 161.7E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 971
+36: 17/0600: 26.0S 164.9E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 977
+48: 17/1800: 30.1S 167.6E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 990
+60: 18/0600: 34.1S 170.6E: 190 [355]: 035 [065]: 990
+72: 18/1800: 37.6S 174.0E: 240 [445]: 035 [065]: 990
REMARKS:
B eye, W surr at 17Z, W surr also at 18Z with less distinct eye, yielding dt=5.0

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:00 pm

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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:03 pm

Image

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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:59 pm

15/2032 UTC 16.8S 155.8E T5.5/5.5 ZELIA -- Southwest Pacific

100 knots
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:00 pm

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Looks like a major tropical cyclone
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#72 Postby KWT » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:09 pm

100kts almost certainly looks like a good call right now!

Its a very tight system with a small core and the Sat.estimates if anything maybe a little on the low side.
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#73 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:18 pm

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latest visible
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#74 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:25 pm

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another good shot of the system
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#75 Postby KWT » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:43 pm

Wow thats starting to look really classic now on that image, no chance this is anything less then 105kts IMO...
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#76 Postby Macrocane » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:00 pm

No doubt it is a major now, I hope that the agencies take into account that Dvorak may be conservative given its small size as you said.
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#77 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:15 pm

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wide shot of Zelia
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#78 Postby P.K. » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:28 pm

This got upgraded a while ago, can someone update the thread title please?

For comparison I've just looked at all the latest Dvorak bulletins. These suggest probably now a bit stronger than it was in the 18Z advisory. I'd suggest we are looking at 90kts now compared with 80kts in the 18Z advisory. Won't be long until the 00Z advisory and they may well upgrade to a cat 4.

BoM at 18Z - T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS
SAB at 2030Z - T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS
CIMSS ADT at 2230Z - T4.3

Can anyone find the JTWC bulletins? The usual archives don't seem to be picking them up.
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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#79 Postby GCANE » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:48 pm

Core is narrow and hot.


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Re: SPAC: ZELIA (10U/07P) - Tropical Cyclone

#80 Postby GCANE » Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:50 pm

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