SIO: Invest 92S

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SIO: Invest 92S

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:18 pm

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14/2030 UTC 16.8S 55.0E T2.0/2.0 92S -- Southwest Indian

30 knota
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#2 Postby KWT » Fri Jan 14, 2011 7:09 pm

Nice little ball of convection there, though the models generally aren't all that keen on the system overall.
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:00 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.6S 55.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141729Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) APPROXIMATELY 20-25 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-29C. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE TRACKING OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:08 am

15/0230 UTC 16.8S 53.7E T2.5/2.5 92S -- Southwest Indian

35 knots
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#5 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:08 am

TXXS24 KNES 150240


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92S)

B. 15/0230Z

C. 16.8S

D. 53.7E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GOOD CONVECTION ON S, SW AND
W SIDE OF LLC WHICH IS SLIGHTLY EXPOSED TO NE. LOG10 SPIRAL THROUGH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN CLUSTER YIELDS .45 BANDING FOR DT OF 2.5. MET IS
2.0. PT IS 2.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/2154Z 16.7S 54.5E AMSU


...GALLINA
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#6 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:32 am

Image

Image
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:33 am

WTXS21 PGTW 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 53.8E TO 16.9S 49.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 53.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 53.4E, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. A 141729Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHTER ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT
AS CONVECTION SUSTAINS AND DEEPENS, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN. OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS LESS THAN 24 HOURS OLD,
RELATIVELY SHALLOW WHEN COMPARED WITH THE MORE ACTIVE EASTERN END OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND LACKS VISIBLE BANDING FEATURES IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LIKELY STALLING
CONSOLIDATION, BUT IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
PARALLELING THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY
BE UNABLE TO CONSOLIDATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160730Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#8 Postby Macrocane » Sat Jan 15, 2011 8:48 am

Looks good, I don't see why the data doesn't not justify a warning maybe because it has not reached tropical storm strength as the JTWC rarely issues warnings for tropical depressions outside the west Pacific basin. What does La Reunion say?
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#9 Postby KWT » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:14 pm

It does look like a minimal TS, main issue with this system will obvious be locally high rainfall, not the biggest system in the world but probably a cyclone as you say.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:20 pm

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about to make landfall
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 9:35 pm

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Inland
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:19 pm

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visible - inland
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#13 Postby Crostorm » Sun Jan 16, 2011 2:53 pm

ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/161800Z-171800ZJAN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 17.2S 51.8E HAS REDEVELOPED ALONG THE
CENTRAL WEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS OF 16/1800Z A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) COULD NOT BE FOUND, HOWEVER, AS THIS
CONVECTION MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR.
WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C) EXIST IN THE REGION. HOWEVER, DUE TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) AND THE LACK OF AN
IDENTIFIABLE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 8:46 pm

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appears to be coming back
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#15 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 16, 2011 10:36 pm

Image

Latest
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Re: SIO: Invest 92S

#16 Postby Crostorm » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:56 am

bye bye
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#17 Postby KWT » Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:34 am

Seems like it did briefly strengthen again over water but has since weakened again, esp in terms of convection as it gets closer to land again.
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