SPAC: WILMA (06F/08P) - Tropical Cyclone

[KWT]

Still looking like a very tight system at the moment, almost certainly around the 110-115kts and maybe even a smigde higher at its peak...

Impressive system thats for sure!

[HURAKAN]

impressive watervapor

[KWT]

Yes that is very impressive indeed Hurakan, got a fairly good eye though its not quite as perfect as it was yesterday...

[HURAKAN]

eye remains distinctive but the convection is becoming less organized

[CrazyC83]

Based on the relatively shallow convection, I would estimate the peak intensity was 110 kt at 0600Z. Since then, I think it has dropped a bit to about 100 kt.

[HURAKAN]

weakening

[HURAKAN]

Wilma at or near it's peak

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Florida1118]

Still looking good...gotta love nature

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 011
WTPS31 PGTW 270300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 173.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 173.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 27.1S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 29.4S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 32.2S 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 35.2S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 173.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z AND 280300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible ... weakening

[Chacor]

Out of Nadi's area and now down to 80 knots.

TCHURRICANE WARNING 490
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone WILMA [950hPa] centre was located near 26.1 South 172.9 East at 270600 UTC.
Position Good.
Repeat position 26.1S 172.9E at 270600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsouthwest 10 knots but expected to be moving southsoutheast 15 knots at 271800 UTC.
Expect sustained winds of 80 knots close to the centre easing to 65 knots between 271800 UTC and 280600 UTC.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 220 nautical miles of centre in the southeast semicircle and within 100 nautical miles of centre in the northwest semicircle. Forecast position near 28.1S 171.6E at 271800 UTC and near 31.3S 172.3E at 280600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 487.
Issued at 7:55pm Thursday 27 January 2011

[HURAKAN]

weakening quite fast

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 012
WTPS31 PGTW 271500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 27.2S 172.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 172.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 29.3S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 32.4S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 36.1S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 27.7S 172.1E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z AND 281500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest

[Vertigo]

This thing is just off my coast, still rated as a TC cat 2 - unheard of in New Zealand. Personally, I would call it cat 1 at this stage. Persistant rain has arrived for Northland as it sheds its convective layers. Wish it would come a bit closer!

[Chacor]

0600z warning:
STORM WARNING 505 CCA
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
Tropical Cyclone WILMA [978hPa] centre was located near 32.5 South 172.7 East at 280600 UTC.
Position Poor.
Repeat position 32.5S 172.7E at 280600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsoutheast 20 knots but expected to be moving southeast 25 knots at 281800 UTC and southeast 35 knots at 290600 UTC.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 240 nautical miles of centre in the southeast semicircle and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the northwest semicircle.

Forecast position near 37.0S 177.7E at 281800 UTC
and near 43.7S 175.4W at 290600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 501.

Issued at 8:12pm Friday 28 January 2011

[P.K.]

This position would put Wilma just off the coast of North Island as a 55kt cat 2. Does anyone know when the last TC hit NZ? I don't recall one in the time I've been tracking.

STORM WARNING 508
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and FORTIES
Tropical Cyclone WILMA [981hPa] centre was located near 34.4 South 174.7 East at 281200 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 34.4S 174.7E at 281200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 30 knots but expected to be moving southeast 35 knots at 290000 UTC.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 160 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to southeast and within 100 nautical miles of centre in the sector from southeast through southwest to north.

Forecast position near 40.1S 178.5W at 290000 UTC
and near 47.0S 173.4W at 291200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 505.

Issued at 1:45am Saturday 29 January 2011

-----

ISSUED BY MetService AT
10:49 pm 28-Jan-2011


REISSUE OF SEVERE WEATHER WARNING ISSUED AT 7:50PM FRIDAY 28 JANUARY 2011

Very heavy rain for Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne through to late Saturday morning. Severe gales for eastern Northland and Great Barrier Island overnight.

Tropical Cyclone Wilma was lying about 280km north of Cape Reinga at 6pm and moving to the south-southeast. By midnight tonight it is expected to lie about 90km to the northeast of the Bay of Islands and should pass just to the north of East Cape mid-morning Saturday before quickly racing away to the southeast. This low is expected to be reclassified as an Ex-Tropical Cyclone as it passes by northern New Zealand overnight, but will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern parts of the North Island.

Very heavy rain is currently spreading over northern New Zealand and is expected to become torrential for a time overnight in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne then quickly clear during Saturday morning. Another 80 to 150mm of rain is likely in these areas on top of what has already fallen, with rainfall rates possibly reaching 25 to 40mm per hour for a time. Rainfalls of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding, lead to slips and will cause rivers and streams to rise quickly.

This heavy rain will be accompanied by strong or gale force winds, and these winds may briefly reach severe gale for a time overnight in parts of eastern Northland and about Great Barrier Island where gusts of 130 km/h are possible. Winds of this strength have the potential to damage trees, powerlines and insecure structures and make driving hazardous, especially when accompanied by heavy rain.

Also heavy northeast swells and very rough seas are forecast for eastern coastal areas from Northland to East Cape.

As stated above the heaviest rain should clear from most areas by late morning (Saturday) and winds should be easing.