TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 25/2032 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.8S 178.5E AT 251800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85
KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT
WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
OVERRALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. EYE WELL DEFINED.
WILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH EYE WARMING AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
COOLING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
WILMA STEERED BY SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR ALONG
FORECAST PATH. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE AND LG
SURROUND, YIELDING DT 5.0 MET=5.5 PT=5.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA
WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 23.7S 175.5E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 24.7S 173.1E MOV WSW AT 14 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 26.0S 171.0E MOV WSW AT 12 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 27.6S 169.1E MOV SW AT 12 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 252030 UTC.
SPAC: WILMA (06F/08P) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.9S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 25.0S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 26.4S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 29.1S 170.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.6S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 39.3S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 177.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF 120-180 NM AND A
20 NM ROUND EYE. A 251837Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, INTENSE
EYEWALL WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED EXCEPT FOR THE
EGRR (UKMO) TRACKER WHICH SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK THEN DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. THE 25/12Z UKMO MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE MODEL IS
POORLY INITIALIZING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND ALSO APPEARS TO
ERRONEOUSLY INTERACT TC 08P WITH A LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
FIJI. THE UKMO SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY AND IS THE SOLE OUTLIER. THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36. TC
08P MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OR REMAIN STEADY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER SST. TC O8P SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 NEAR NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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pepeavilenho
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 170
- Joined: Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:01 pm
Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
Wow, what a beautiful cyclone, I hope the next JTWC warning is not as conservative as the last one, I agree that Wilma may be a cat 4 right now.
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Florida1118
- Category 5
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- Location: Tampa, Florida
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 176.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 176.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.3S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.9S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.9S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 30.2S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 35.6S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
EAST OF OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT HAS
CONTRACTED TO 10 NM IN DIAMETER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 260554Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM EXHIBITING SIGNS OF
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON UNIFIED DVORAK FIXES FROM KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION SHOWING EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 08P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK BUT SHOULD BEGIN SLOWING DOWN A BIT BEFORE
RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 24, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT, HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM
AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC WILMA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
N
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 176.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 176.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.3S 173.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 25.9S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 27.9S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 30.2S 170.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 35.6S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 175.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
EAST OF OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT HAS
CONTRACTED TO 10 NM IN DIAMETER. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 260554Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM EXHIBITING SIGNS OF
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED
ON UNIFIED DVORAK FIXES FROM KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION SHOWING EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 08P IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK BUT SHOULD BEGIN SLOWING DOWN A BIT BEFORE
RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TAU 24, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT, HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM
AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
ADDITIONALLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. TC WILMA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
N
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
TPPS10 PGTW 260612
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA)
B. 26/0532Z
C. 23.3S
D. 176.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 12NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLK
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA)
B. 26/0532Z
C. 23.3S
D. 176.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 12NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY BLK
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
WTPS11 NFFN 260600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 26/0823 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4
SOUTH 176.0 EAST AT 260600 UTC.POSITION GOOD. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE, OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 090
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. EYE WELL DEFINED.
WILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH EYE WARMING AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
COOLING. OUTFLOW GOOD. WILMA STEERED BY SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
REGIME. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SST AROUND 27C. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON OW EYE AND B SURROUND, EYE ADJSTMENT OF +0.5 YIELDING DT
6.0 MET=6.0 PT=6.0 FT BASED ON DT, THUS T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.4S 173.8E MOV WSW AT 11 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 25.4S 172.1E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 26.9S 170.7E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 28.6S 170.0E MOV SW AT 09 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 261430 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 26/0823 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4
SOUTH 176.0 EAST AT 260600 UTC.POSITION GOOD. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 95 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE, OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER
47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 090
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. EYE WELL DEFINED.
WILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH EYE WARMING AND CONVECTIVE TOPS
COOLING. OUTFLOW GOOD. WILMA STEERED BY SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN
REGIME. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES
DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST PATH. SST AROUND 27C. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON OW EYE AND B SURROUND, EYE ADJSTMENT OF +0.5 YIELDING DT
6.0 MET=6.0 PT=6.0 FT BASED ON DT, THUS T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 23.4S 173.8E MOV WSW AT 11 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 25.4S 172.1E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 26.9S 170.7E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 28.6S 170.0E MOV SW AT 09 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 261430 UTC.
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IDN10008
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
UPDATED
Norfolk Island Forecast
Issued at 6:59 pm EDT Wednesday on 26 January 2011
Warning Summary at issue time
A cyclone watch has been issued by NZ Metservice for Norfolk Island.
Tropical Cyclone Wilma (category 4) was centred about 900 km northeast of the
island at 1730NFT today. Wilma is moving west-southwest at 16 knots but is
expected to slow down and pass near the island on Friday as it turns towards the
south. There is the potential for heavy rain and winds of gale force or stronger
to develop on Friday. As there is still uncertainty about the exact track and
timing, people are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts.
Weather Situation
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma centred 900 km to the northeast of the island and
a ridge of high pressure over the central Tasman Sea, directs a southeasterly
airstream to the island with a shower or two developing.
Showers are expected to increase further from Thursday onwards due to the
approaching tropical cyclone. Current indications suggest that Wilma will be
tracking southwest and then southwards, passing just to the southeast of Norfolk
Island on Friday.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
UPDATED
Norfolk Island Forecast
Issued at 6:59 pm EDT Wednesday on 26 January 2011
Warning Summary at issue time
A cyclone watch has been issued by NZ Metservice for Norfolk Island.
Tropical Cyclone Wilma (category 4) was centred about 900 km northeast of the
island at 1730NFT today. Wilma is moving west-southwest at 16 knots but is
expected to slow down and pass near the island on Friday as it turns towards the
south. There is the potential for heavy rain and winds of gale force or stronger
to develop on Friday. As there is still uncertainty about the exact track and
timing, people are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts.
Weather Situation
Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma centred 900 km to the northeast of the island and
a ridge of high pressure over the central Tasman Sea, directs a southeasterly
airstream to the island with a shower or two developing.
Showers are expected to increase further from Thursday onwards due to the
approaching tropical cyclone. Current indications suggest that Wilma will be
tracking southwest and then southwards, passing just to the southeast of Norfolk
Island on Friday.
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-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
Up to 100kts at 12Z.
WHPS01 NFFN 261200
HURRICANE WARNING 077 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 26/1322 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH
175.1 EAST AT 261200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.6S 175.1E AT 261200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.6S 173.1E AT 270000 UTC
AND NEAR 26.2S 171.5E AT 271200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 075.
WHPS01 NFFN 261200
HURRICANE WARNING 077 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 26/1322 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH
175.1 EAST AT 261200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 23.6S 175.1E AT 261200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.6S 173.1E AT 270000 UTC
AND NEAR 26.2S 171.5E AT 271200 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 075.
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