SPAC: WILMA (06F/08P) - Tropical Cyclone

[HURAKAN]

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[Grifforzer]

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13

Hurricane Warning is now in force for Ha'apai

Storm Warning is now in force for Vavau

Gale Warning remains in force for Tongatapu

A Strong Wind Warning is in force for the rest of Tonga

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is in force for southern Lau group

A Strong Wind Warning is now in force for Fiji

At 18:00 PM UTC (6:00 AM FST), Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 18.8S 173.0W has 10 minute winds of 65 knots and is reported as moving south southwest at 14 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
150 NM from the center in eastern semicircle and within 80 NM of the center elsewhere

Overall organization has improved in the last 6 hours. Primary band tightly wrapping around low level circulation center. Outflow good to the south and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies under an upper diffluent region and weak sheared environment. CIMSS indicates a weak sheared environment along the forecast path. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on visible 1.40 LOG10 spiral and enhanced infrared radar eye pattern with MG eye LG surrounding yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

Most global models move WILMA southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 20.8S 175.7W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 22.4S 178.3W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.3S 178.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC..

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[Chacor]

WTZS81 NSTU 250000
HLSZS1
ASZ001>003-242300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1200 PM SST MON JAN 24 2011

...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS...

...NEW INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM SST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 SOUTH...LONGITUDE 174.6 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...
A MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A GALE WARN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS.

A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF AMERICAN
SAMOA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD...HOWEVER
A MONSOONAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ISLANDS AND
IS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AMERICAN SAMOA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIAL IS ADVISING RESIDENTS
TO REMAIN ON THE ALERT AND SECURE LOOSE ITEMS AS NECESSARY. BE READY
TO COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD HAVE NOW BE COMPLETED.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR YOUR RADIO FOR FURTHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT THE EOC AT
699-3800.

...WINDS...
TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA...NORTHWEST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDES...
HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 16 TO 20 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER ALL
AMERICAN SAMOA WATERS. THESE LARGE SURFS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
VERY ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL COASTS OF
THE ISLANDS. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO RETURN
TO PORT AND SECURE THEIR VESSELS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

eye becoming better defined



Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 172.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 172.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.7S 175.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 22.0S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 23.3S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 24.8S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.6S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.6S 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 39.5S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 173.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241550Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A SMALL, COMPACT LLCC WITH A DIAMETER OF 120-180NM AND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY WHERE A BROAD UPPER LOW IS POSITIONED; THIS UPPER LOW IS
HINDERING OUTFLOW TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT IS AIDING OUTFLOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 08P SHOULD
BEGIN TO RE-CURVE AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE MODELS NOW SUPPORTING THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF RE-
CURVATURE AND TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 72 WITH GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING
A MORE GRADUAL TURN AND SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. HOWEVER, THE MODELS
REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER THAN
THE CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND IS ALSO
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER SST. TC 08P SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Wilma putting up a show

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 25/0858 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.5S 177.2W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF
CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TIGHTLY
WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
CIMSS INDICATES A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST PATH.
SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EIR EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE
LG SURROUND YIELDING DT 5.0 MET=5.0 PT=5.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 23.0S 179.8E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 24.1S 177.1E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 25.0S 175.0E MOV WSW AT 13 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 270600 UTC 25.8S 173.4E MOV WSW AT 12 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 241430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 177.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 177.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.5S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 25.3S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.9S 173.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 32.8S 172.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 39.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (WILMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250422Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 25-NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A UNIFIED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM
PHFO, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 08P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE NOTED EXCEPTION OF GFS
SHOWING SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE.
TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 95 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER
ALONG-TRACK SST'S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 72 AND
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P
(ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

Wilma is a very good looking cyclone, it seems that it may stay tropical for longer than expected before.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Looking good in this microwave image

[Craiga74]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 25/1422 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22.4S 179.9W AT 251200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GOES EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN
20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TIGHTLY
WRAPPED AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST
PATH. SST AROUND 28C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EIR EYE PATTERN WITH
OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG SURROUND, THUS YIELDS DT 5.5 MET=5.0 PT=5.5, FT
BASED ON MET, THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE
CYCLONE WILMA WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 24.0S 176.7E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 25.2S 174.0E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 26.5S 171.9E MOV WSW AT 13 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 28.1S 170.4E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC WILMA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 252030 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible and microwave

[HURAKAN]

impressive little core