nice look to Bianca
weakening
SIO: BIANCA (12U/10S) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 38
Issued at 11:41 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a significant risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
570 kilometres west of Carnarvon and
1040 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving south southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca has started to weaken and is moving south
southwest well away from WA mainland.
During Saturday Bianca is expected to weaken further and move in a
southeasterly direction towards the southwest corner of the state. There is a
significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it
approaches the coast during Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between
Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced
through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 25.6 degrees South 108.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 11:41 pm WST on Friday 28 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a significant risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people
should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
570 kilometres west of Carnarvon and
1040 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving south southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca has started to weaken and is moving south
southwest well away from WA mainland.
During Saturday Bianca is expected to weaken further and move in a
southeasterly direction towards the southwest corner of the state. There is a
significant risk that Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it
approaches the coast during Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between
Jurien Bay and Albany could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120
kilometres per hour. Wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced
through inland parts southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste are likely to rise
significantly above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is
possible. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system.
LOCALISED FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are likely across inland areas south of a
line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 25.6 degrees South 108.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 950 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
Beautiful pic Crostorm! Look at that huge circulation 
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Crostorm
- Category 5
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Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39
Issued at 2:54 am WST on Saturday 29 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA EXPECTED TO IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA ON SUNDAY
Bianca will weaken significantly before it reaches the South West. However
there is a risk that it will retain cyclone intensity so people should prepare
for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour
. VERY ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Albany,
including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
620 kilometres west southwest of Carnarvon and
1020 kilometres northwest of Perth and
moving south southwest at 24 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca is weakening as it moves south southwest well
away from WA mainland.
Bianca is expected to weaken further today and move in a southeasterly
direction towards the southwest corner of the state. There is a risk that
Bianca will maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it approaches the coast
during Sunday. If this happens, coastal areas between Jurien Bay and Albany
could experience DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour. Wind
gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced through inland parts
southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
On Sunday tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste may rise significantly
above the normal high tide mark with VERY ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF and
FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EROSION is possible.
HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the system. LOCALISED
FLOODING is possible but extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday.
EXTREME to CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGERS are possible across inland areas south of
a line from Geraldton to Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 26.2 degrees South 107.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Great loop!! Thanks for sharing!!
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
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- Contact:
Re:
HURAKAN wrote::uarrow: Great loop!! Thanks for sharing!!
Here is the site
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... DUCT=gms_6
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Cyclone warning has been issued. This is certainly a rarity for Perth.
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued at 8:58 am WST on Saturday 29 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA MAY IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA ON
SUNDAY
Bianca will be rapidly weakening as it approaches the coast on Sunday. However
there is uncertainty about how fast it will be moving at that time. Therefore
there is some risk that Bianca could still have an impact on the South West of
WA. So people should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
. ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to EXTREME FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to
Albany, including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
920 kilometres west northwest of Perth and
680 kilometres west northwest of Geraldton and
moving south at 24 kilometres per hour.
Bianca is expected to weaken further during today and begin to move towards the
southwest corner of the state. As it approaches the coast it will weaken
rapidly but there is some risk that Bianca could still have an impact on the
South West on Sunday. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are
possible southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
Tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste will be higher than expected and
may rise above the highest astronomical tide level with ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and COASTAL EROSION. FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS is possible in
Geographe Bay. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the
system with LOCALISED FLOODING. Extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday,
possibly reaching EXTREME across inland areas south of a line from Geraldton to
Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 27.5 degrees South 107.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 41
Issued at 8:58 am WST on Saturday 29 January 2011
CYCLONE BIANCA MAY IMPACT COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH WEST OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA ON
SUNDAY
Bianca will be rapidly weakening as it approaches the coast on Sunday. However
there is uncertainty about how fast it will be moving at that time. Therefore
there is some risk that Bianca could still have an impact on the South West of
WA. So people should prepare for:
. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
. ROUGH SEAS and DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
. COASTAL EROSION and FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS
. SEVERE to EXTREME FIRE DANGERS
. HEAVY RAINFALL south of the cyclone with possible LOCALISED FLOODING.
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Jurien Bay to
Albany, including Perth, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
920 kilometres west northwest of Perth and
680 kilometres west northwest of Geraldton and
moving south at 24 kilometres per hour.
Bianca is expected to weaken further during today and begin to move towards the
southwest corner of the state. As it approaches the coast it will weaken
rapidly but there is some risk that Bianca could still have an impact on the
South West on Sunday. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are
possible southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Albany.
Tides between Jurien Bay and Cape Naturaliste will be higher than expected and
may rise above the highest astronomical tide level with ROUGH SEAS, DANGEROUS
SURF and COASTAL EROSION. FLOODING of LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS is possible in
Geographe Bay. HEAVY RAINFALL is also possible on the southern side of the
system with LOCALISED FLOODING. Extensive flooding is not expected.
VERY HIGH to SEVERE FIRE DANGERS are likely near the west coast on Sunday,
possibly reaching EXTREME across inland areas south of a line from Geraldton to
Leonora to Israelite Bay on Sunday.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises that people should start planning
for bad weather and listen for further advice.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 27.5 degrees South 107.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 24 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Saturday 29 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
AXAU01 APRF 291313
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1313 UTC 29/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 29.9S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [140 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [25 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/0000: 31.5S 112.4E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 988
+24: 30/1200: 32.6S 115.8E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 31/0000: : : :
+48: 31/1200: : : :
+60: 01/0000: : : :
+72: 01/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Position based on persistence and microwave imagery. Dvorak intensity: Recent
shear pattern gives DTs of between 3.0 and 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on W+ trend
with PAT of 3.0. FT set to 3.0 with CI held at 4.0.
Recent microwave and IR imagery show deep convection to the southeast of the
LLCC.
Weakening is likely to continue due to the cooler ocean temperatures [<26C] now
that it is moving south of 30S combined with increasing shear. The system has
started to move into an area of high shear, currently estimated to be NW'ly
about 30 knots. This should continue to increase as the system moves further
southeast over the next 24 hours. Hence rapid weakening is expected in the next
24 hours.
The system is being steered towards the southeast by a mid level trough
approaching from the west.
The most likely scenario is that Bianca will weaken below cyclone intensity
before it crosses the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push
in and markedly increase the shear. However, there still remains the risk of an
impact over the warning area on Sunday, particularly if the system moves faster
than forecast and crosses the coast earlier in the day.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1313 UTC 29/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 29.9S
Longitude: 109.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [140 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [25 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W2.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/0000: 31.5S 112.4E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 988
+24: 30/1200: 32.6S 115.8E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 31/0000: : : :
+48: 31/1200: : : :
+60: 01/0000: : : :
+72: 01/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Position based on persistence and microwave imagery. Dvorak intensity: Recent
shear pattern gives DTs of between 3.0 and 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on W+ trend
with PAT of 3.0. FT set to 3.0 with CI held at 4.0.
Recent microwave and IR imagery show deep convection to the southeast of the
LLCC.
Weakening is likely to continue due to the cooler ocean temperatures [<26C] now
that it is moving south of 30S combined with increasing shear. The system has
started to move into an area of high shear, currently estimated to be NW'ly
about 30 knots. This should continue to increase as the system moves further
southeast over the next 24 hours. Hence rapid weakening is expected in the next
24 hours.
The system is being steered towards the southeast by a mid level trough
approaching from the west.
The most likely scenario is that Bianca will weaken below cyclone intensity
before it crosses the coast as the strong southeasterlies from the new high push
in and markedly increase the shear. However, there still remains the risk of an
impact over the warning area on Sunday, particularly if the system moves faster
than forecast and crosses the coast earlier in the day.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
AXAU01 APRF 291919
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1918 UTC 29/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 30.8S
Longitude: 110.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [127 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/0600: 31.8S 114.1E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 992
+24: 30/1800: 32.0S 118.1E: 115 [215]: 025 [045]: 999
+36: 31/0600: : : :
+48: 31/1800: : : :
+60: 01/0600: : : :
+72: 01/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Position primarily based on persistence from previous microwave imagery. Recent
microwave and IR imagery show deep convection to the southeast of the LLCC.
Dvorak intensity: Recent shear pattern gives DT=2.0; adjusted MET is 2.5 based
on W+ trend. FT constrained to 3.0 with CI held at 3.5. Maximum wind estimated
at 45 knots consistent with latest SATCON value.
Weakening is likely to continue due to the cooler ocean temperatures [<26C]
combined with strong NW shear of 30 knots. The system is being steered towards
the southeast by a mid level trough approaching from the west.
The most likely scenario is that Bianca will weaken below cyclone intensity in
the next 12 hours before it crosses the coast as the strong southeasterlies from
the new high push in and markedly increase the shear. However, there still
remains the risk of an impact over the warning area on Sunday particularly for
higher than normal tides on the high tide Sunday evening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1918 UTC 29/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 30.8S
Longitude: 110.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [127 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/0600: 31.8S 114.1E: 055 [100]: 035 [065]: 992
+24: 30/1800: 32.0S 118.1E: 115 [215]: 025 [045]: 999
+36: 31/0600: : : :
+48: 31/1800: : : :
+60: 01/0600: : : :
+72: 01/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Position primarily based on persistence from previous microwave imagery. Recent
microwave and IR imagery show deep convection to the southeast of the LLCC.
Dvorak intensity: Recent shear pattern gives DT=2.0; adjusted MET is 2.5 based
on W+ trend. FT constrained to 3.0 with CI held at 3.5. Maximum wind estimated
at 45 knots consistent with latest SATCON value.
Weakening is likely to continue due to the cooler ocean temperatures [<26C]
combined with strong NW shear of 30 knots. The system is being steered towards
the southeast by a mid level trough approaching from the west.
The most likely scenario is that Bianca will weaken below cyclone intensity in
the next 12 hours before it crosses the coast as the strong southeasterlies from
the new high push in and markedly increase the shear. However, there still
remains the risk of an impact over the warning area on Sunday particularly for
higher than normal tides on the high tide Sunday evening.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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WTXS33 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 31.1S 110.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1S 110.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 32.3S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
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REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 111.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
WEST OF PERTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYING OVER
VERY COOL SST (< 22C) AND SHEARING SOUTHEAST OF THE DE-COUPLED
LLCC. TC 10S IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AND A 291350Z ASCAT
IMAGE SUPPORTING 40-45 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-
EASTWARD AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.//
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