impressive microwave
SIO: BIANCA (12U/10S) - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0708 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.4S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [27 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/1800: 20.3S 115.6E: 045 [085]: 070 [130]: 968
+24: 27/0600: 21.2S 113.1E: 075 [140]: 080 [150]: 958
+36: 27/1800: 22.5S 110.5E: 110 [200]: 085 [155]: 953
+48: 28/0600: 24.6S 108.3E: 140 [260]: 075 [140]: 961
+60: 28/1800: 26.9S 107.0E: 190 [345]: 055 [100]: 976
+72: 29/0600: 29.4S 106.9E: 235 [435]: 040 [075]: 985
REMARKS:
1.1 banding on recent VIS imagery gives 4.0 DT. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend,
PAT 4.0. FT is set to 4.0 within constraints and hence CI is 4.0. SATCON at 23Z
indicated 60 knots 1-min wind, with ADT at 48 knots and CIMSS AMSU at 64 knots.
1-min winds at Bedout Island have reached a maximum of 54 knots [0405Z] as the
system centre passed close by. Bedout is on the southern side and appears to
have gone through the eyewall so will have likely experienced close to the
maximum winds at that time. Final intensity estimate is set at 55 knots 10-min
wind with relatively high confidence given the lower bounds provided by the
offshore obs and the subjective assessment of the radar and microwave imagery in
agreement with Dvorak estimates.
Radar shows inner eye wall radius of around 20-25nm with recent evidence that an
intense Cb has generated an asymmetry in the NW of the eyewall. Shear has
increased slightly [8.1m/s at 06Z] but is expected to increase only marginally
over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the forecast track
over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is forecast. By late
Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane]
intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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Re: SIO: TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
WTXS33 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.5S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.2S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.4S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.3S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 34.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS
RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, DEPICTING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY HIGHLY
REFLECTIVE CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT,
HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
CONCURRENTLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BIANCA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN ERRONEOUSLY REVERSING TRACK AT TAU 48 AND
CONSEQUENTLY SKEWING THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND
270900Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.5S 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.7S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.2S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 25.4S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 30.3S 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 34.4S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 117.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (BIANCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS
RADIAL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, DEPICTING A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SURROUNDED BY HIGHLY
REFLECTIVE CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARDS A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 10S IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS TRACK AND FURTHER
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT THAT POINT,
HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET).
CONCURRENTLY, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. TC BIANCA WILL COMPLETE ET BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN ERRONEOUSLY REVERSING TRACK AT TAU 48 AND
CONSEQUENTLY SKEWING THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND
270900Z.//
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IDW20400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
PRIORITY
WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Wallal to Carnarvon
Issued at 8:46 pm WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal seven degrees East (116.7E)
about 80 nautical miles north of Karratha
and 160 nautical miles north northeast of Onslow
Recent movement : west at 14 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 976 hectopascals
Forecast to be within 50 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal zero degrees South (20.0S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal one degrees East (114.1E)
about 160 nautical miles west northwest of Karratha
with maximum winds of 75 knots
at 8:00 am WST Thursday
Forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of
latitude twenty one decimal zero degrees South (21.0S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal eight degrees East (111.8E)
about 285 nautical miles west of Karratha
with maximum winds of 80 knots
at 8:00 pm WST Thursday
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 20 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds increasing to 70 knots within 6 hours and to 80 knots within 18
hours.
Combined seas and swell rising to 9 metres.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds above 48 knots. Combined seas and swell rising to 6 metres.
GALE WARNING
Within 70 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots with scattered squalls to 50 knots. Combined seas
and swell rising to 4 metres.
STRONG WIND WARNING
Elsewhere east of the system
North to northeast winds 20/30 knots easing to 15/20 knots east of Port Hedland
during Thursday morning, then easing east of Cape Preston by Thursday night.
Squalls to 50 knots possible in showers and thunderstorms.
Combined seas and swell rising to 3 metres.
Elsewhere west of system
Southeast to southwest winds 15/20 knots increasing to 20/30 knots east of
Northwest Cape. Southeast to northeast winds 20/30 knots Northwest Cape to
Coral Bay by Thursday morning and extending south to Carnarvon by Thursday
afternoon. Combined seas and swell rising to 3 metres.
The next warning will be issued by 12:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
PRIORITY
WIND WARNING
For coastal waters from Wallal to Carnarvon
Issued at 8:46 pm WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 8:00 pm WST a Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four degrees South (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and sixteen decimal seven degrees East (116.7E)
about 80 nautical miles north of Karratha
and 160 nautical miles north northeast of Onslow
Recent movement : west at 14 knots
Maximum winds : 60 knots
Central pressure: 976 hectopascals
Forecast to be within 50 nautical miles of
latitude twenty decimal zero degrees South (20.0S)
longitude one hundred and fourteen decimal one degrees East (114.1E)
about 160 nautical miles west northwest of Karratha
with maximum winds of 75 knots
at 8:00 am WST Thursday
Forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of
latitude twenty one decimal zero degrees South (21.0S)
longitude one hundred and eleven decimal eight degrees East (111.8E)
about 285 nautical miles west of Karratha
with maximum winds of 80 knots
at 8:00 pm WST Thursday
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 20 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds increasing to 70 knots within 6 hours and to 80 knots within 18
hours.
Combined seas and swell rising to 9 metres.
STORM FORCE WIND WARNING
Within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds above 48 knots. Combined seas and swell rising to 6 metres.
GALE WARNING
Within 70 nautical miles of centre.
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots with scattered squalls to 50 knots. Combined seas
and swell rising to 4 metres.
STRONG WIND WARNING
Elsewhere east of the system
North to northeast winds 20/30 knots easing to 15/20 knots east of Port Hedland
during Thursday morning, then easing east of Cape Preston by Thursday night.
Squalls to 50 knots possible in showers and thunderstorms.
Combined seas and swell rising to 3 metres.
Elsewhere west of system
Southeast to southwest winds 15/20 knots increasing to 20/30 knots east of
Northwest Cape. Southeast to northeast winds 20/30 knots Northwest Cape to
Coral Bay by Thursday morning and extending south to Carnarvon by Thursday
afternoon. Combined seas and swell rising to 3 metres.
The next warning will be issued by 12:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
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Inner core is winding up, should get stronger as it rakes the coast with its outer bands. I think 85-95kts sounds about right for a peak.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.4S
Longitude: 116.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [27 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0000: 20.0S 114.1E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 960
+24: 27/1200: 21.0S 111.8E: 080 [150]: 080 [150]: 956
+36: 28/0000: 22.8S 109.6E: 115 [210]: 085 [155]: 951
+48: 28/1200: 25.3S 107.7E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 967
+60: 29/0000: 28.0S 107.2E: 195 [355]: 045 [085]: 981
+72: 29/1200: 30.5S 108.9E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 983
REMARKS:
Data T has become difficult to apply with no clear curved band evident on IR/VIS
imagery. Assigning a trend of D+ gives a MET of 4.0, no adjustment was made so
FT=4.0, which agrees reasonably well with recent ADT estimates. No recent SATCON
is available for comparison. Radar and microwave imagery show the convection
attempting to wrap around the centre.
Radar shows inner eye wall radius has decreased slightly to 15-20nm though the
diameter of the centre is fluctuating over time. CIMMS shear figures have been
steady over the last 6 hours [7.3 m/s 12Z] and is expected to increase only
marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the
forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is
forecast. By early Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane]
intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.4S
Longitude: 116.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [27 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0000: 20.0S 114.1E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 960
+24: 27/1200: 21.0S 111.8E: 080 [150]: 080 [150]: 956
+36: 28/0000: 22.8S 109.6E: 115 [210]: 085 [155]: 951
+48: 28/1200: 25.3S 107.7E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 967
+60: 29/0000: 28.0S 107.2E: 195 [355]: 045 [085]: 981
+72: 29/1200: 30.5S 108.9E: 240 [445]: 040 [075]: 983
REMARKS:
Data T has become difficult to apply with no clear curved band evident on IR/VIS
imagery. Assigning a trend of D+ gives a MET of 4.0, no adjustment was made so
FT=4.0, which agrees reasonably well with recent ADT estimates. No recent SATCON
is available for comparison. Radar and microwave imagery show the convection
attempting to wrap around the centre.
Radar shows inner eye wall radius has decreased slightly to 15-20nm though the
diameter of the centre is fluctuating over time. CIMMS shear figures have been
steady over the last 6 hours [7.3 m/s 12Z] and is expected to increase only
marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the
forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is
forecast. By early Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane]
intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 8:44 pm WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Whim
Creek to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Port Hedland to Whim Creek has been cancelled.
At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 2 was estimated to be
150 kilometres north of Karratha and
300 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and
moving west at 27 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves quickly west southwest
parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to intensify overnight
and during Thursday.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Whim Creek and Mardie overnight, extending to Onslow and Exmouth from
early Thursday morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible between Karratha and Mardie overnight, moving
further west early Thursday and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200
kilometres per hour may be experienced between Onslow and Exmouth during
Thursday morning.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Mardie
overnight, extending to Exmouth by Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are
likely but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy
rain are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek overnight.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal
communities west of Dampier, including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the
potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Whim Creek and Onslow,
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and all
communities, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Port and South Hedland and surrounding
communities.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.4 degrees South 116.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 27 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 976 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:44 pm WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Whim
Creek to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Port Hedland to Whim Creek has been cancelled.
At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 2 was estimated to be
150 kilometres north of Karratha and
300 kilometres north northeast of Onslow and
moving west at 27 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves quickly west southwest
parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to intensify overnight
and during Thursday.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Whim Creek and Mardie overnight, extending to Onslow and Exmouth from
early Thursday morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible between Karratha and Mardie overnight, moving
further west early Thursday and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200
kilometres per hour may be experienced between Onslow and Exmouth during
Thursday morning.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Mardie
overnight, extending to Exmouth by Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are
likely but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy
rain are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek overnight.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal
communities west of Dampier, including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the
potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Whim Creek and Onslow,
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and all
communities, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Port and South Hedland and surrounding
communities.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.4 degrees South 116.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 27 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 976 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Northern and western eyewall looking very good on that Microwave imagery there Hurakan, looks like its getting closer to closing that up now...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 2:42 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Whim
Creek to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Port Hedland to Whim Creek has been cancelled.
At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
180 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
335 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving west at 20 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west and
parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to intensify during
Thursday.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Whim Creek and Mardie, extending to Onslow and then Exmouth during
Thursday morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible between Mardie and Exmouth during Thursday
morning and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be
experienced between Onslow and Exmouth later Thursday morning.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Mardie,
extending to Exmouth during Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy rain
are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal
communities west of Mardie including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the
potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Whim Creek and Onslow,
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and all
communities, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Port and South Hedland and surrounding
communities.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.4 degrees South 115.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 2:42 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Whim
Creek to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Port Hedland to Whim Creek has been cancelled.
At 2:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
180 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
335 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
moving west at 20 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west and
parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to intensify during
Thursday.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Whim Creek and Mardie, extending to Onslow and then Exmouth during
Thursday morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible between Mardie and Exmouth during Thursday
morning and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be
experienced between Onslow and Exmouth later Thursday morning.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Mardie,
extending to Exmouth during Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy rain
are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal
communities west of Mardie including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the
potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Whim Creek and Onslow,
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and all
communities, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Port and South Hedland and surrounding
communities.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.4 degrees South 115.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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