TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1850 UTC 26/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.4S
Longitude: 115.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/0600: 20.0S 113.9E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 957
+24: 27/1800: 21.4S 111.6E: 080 [150]: 085 [155]: 952
+36: 28/0600: 23.6S 109.6E: 110 [210]: 075 [140]: 959
+48: 28/1800: 26.2S 108.4E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 974
+60: 29/0600: 28.9S 108.9E: 190 [355]: 045 [085]: 983
+72: 29/1800: 30.6S 111.1E: 240 [445]: 035 [065]: 984
REMARKS:
Data T has become difficult to apply with no clear curved band evident on IR
imagery and currently using Pattern T number of 4.5. Assigning a trend of D+
gives a MET of 4.5, no adjustment was made so FT=4.5.
Radar shows inner eye wall radius has increased slightly to 25nm though the
diameter of the centre is fluctuating over time. CIMMS shear figures have been
steady over the last 6 hours [7.3 m/s 12Z] and is expected to increase only
marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the
forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is
forecast. By early Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane]
intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
SIO: BIANCA (12U/10S) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 5:49 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Roebourne to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.
At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
305 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
195 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving west at 17 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west and
parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying
during Thursday, but staying within the category three range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Roebourne and Onslow, extending to Exmouth during this morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible between Mardie and Exmouth during Thursday
morning and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be
experienced between Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Onslow,
extending to Exmouth during Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy rain
are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal
communities west of Mardie including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the
potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Roebourne and Onslow,
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and all
communities, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Whim Creek and surrounding communities.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.5 degrees South 115.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 23
Issued at 5:49 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Roebourne to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.
At 5:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
305 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
195 kilometres northwest of Karratha and
moving west at 17 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west and
parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue intensifying
during Thursday, but staying within the category three range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Roebourne and Onslow, extending to Exmouth during this morning.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible between Mardie and Exmouth during Thursday
morning and VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be
experienced between Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Onslow,
extending to Exmouth during Thursday morning. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected. Strong, squally winds and heavy rain
are still possible between Wallal and Whim Creek.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Pilbara coastal
communities west of Mardie including Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the
potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the
normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Roebourne and Onslow,
including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and all
communities, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in Whim Creek and surrounding communities.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.5 degrees South 115.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 8:52 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Roebourne to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
225 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west
southwest and parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to
continue intensifying during Thursday, but staying within the Category Three
range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Roebourne and Onslow, extending to Exmouth this afternoon.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible near Exmouth on the NW Cape during Thursday
afternoon and evening.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Exmouth today.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong, squally winds and heavy rain are still possible between Wallal and Whim
Creek during today.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Exmouth are warned of
the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above
the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
Tides will be higher than expected near Onslow, but flooding of low-lying
coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Mardie and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth, Onslow and all communities, mines and pastoral
leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Roebourne
and Mardie, including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, and Dampier
are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed and people should
proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.8 degrees South 115.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:52 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Roebourne to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Whim Creek to Roebourne has been cancelled.
At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
255 kilometres north northeast of Exmouth and
225 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west
southwest and parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to
continue intensifying during Thursday, but staying within the Category Three
range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Roebourne and Onslow, extending to Exmouth this afternoon.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160
kilometres per hour are possible near Exmouth on the NW Cape during Thursday
afternoon and evening.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Exmouth today.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong, squally winds and heavy rain are still possible between Wallal and Whim
Creek during today.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, residents of Exmouth are warned of
the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above
the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.
Tides will be higher than expected near Onslow, but flooding of low-lying
coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Mardie and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth, Onslow and all communities, mines and pastoral
leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Roebourne
and Mardie, including Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, and Dampier
are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed and people should
proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.8 degrees South 115.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 16 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 26
Issued at 11:57 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Mardie
to Coral Bay.
Updated The Cyclone WARNING from Mardie to Roebourne has been cancelled.
At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
235 kilometres north of Exmouth and
220 kilometres northwest of Mardie and
moving west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue
intensifying during Thursday, but staying within the Category 3 range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Mardie and Onslow, extending to Exmouth this afternoon.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150
kilometres per hour are possible near Exmouth on the NW Cape this evening.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Exmouth today.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong, squally winds and heavy rain are still possible between Wallal and
Mardie during today.
Tides will be higher than normal near Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Mardie and Onslow
including, Mardie, Onslow, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter
immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth, and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Roebourne
and Mardie, including Pannawonica, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha,
and Dampier are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed and
people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.8 degrees South 114.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 962 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 11:57 am WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Mardie
to Coral Bay.
Updated The Cyclone WARNING from Mardie to Roebourne has been cancelled.
At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
235 kilometres north of Exmouth and
220 kilometres northwest of Mardie and
moving west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the west
southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue
intensifying during Thursday, but staying within the Category 3 range.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Mardie and Onslow, extending to Exmouth this afternoon.
If the cyclone moves closer to the coast, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150
kilometres per hour are possible near Exmouth on the NW Cape this evening.
Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Exmouth today.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong, squally winds and heavy rain are still possible between Wallal and
Mardie during today.
Tides will be higher than normal near Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Mardie and Onslow
including, Mardie, Onslow, mines and pastoral leases need to go to shelter
immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow and Exmouth,
including the town of Exmouth, and all communities, mines and pastoral leases
need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all communities, mines and
pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Roebourne
and Mardie, including Pannawonica, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha,
and Dampier are advised that wind and storm surge dangers have passed and
people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.8 degrees South 114.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 17 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 962 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 27 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 006
WTXS33 PGTW 270300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BIANCA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.8S 115.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 115.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.8S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.8S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 27.9S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 35.1S 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 114.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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Crostorm
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- Posts: 2060
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SIO: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (10S)
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0702 UTC 27/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 20.2S
Longitude: 114.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [246 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 962 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 27/1800: 21.6S 111.8E: 050 [095]: 080 [150]: 958
+24: 28/0600: 24.1S 109.8E: 080 [150]: 080 [150]: 958
+36: 28/1800: 26.9S 108.5E: 115 [210]: 065 [120]: 968
+48: 29/0600: 29.5S 108.7E: 145 [270]: 045 [085]: 982
+60: 29/1800: 31.5S 111.1E: 195 [355]: 030 [055]: 991
+72: 30/0600: 32.4S 112.7E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 989
REMARKS:
Data T is 4.5 based on a VIS banding eye. Assigning a trend of D+ gives a MET of
5.0, however an adjustment was made to the MET, and the Pattern T number is 4.5.
The FT is based on the Pattern T number and DT, giving FT=4.5.
CIMSS shear figures have about 20 knots [at 27/0600UTC] over the system. Ocean
heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 24 hours. Hence
further intensification is forecast. Weakening is then likely from late Friday
as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 8:48 pm WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Onslow
to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Mardie to Onslow has been cancelled.
At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
195 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
295 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move to the west southwest.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Onslow and Coral Bay overnight. Conditions should gradually ease during
Friday as the cyclone moves away from the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are no longer expected
near Exmouth.
Heavy rain is possible in coastal parts between Karratha and Exmouth overnight.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong and squally winds are still possible between Whim Creek and Onslow.
Conditions should ease from the east during Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth including surrounding mines and pastoral
leases need to go to shelter immediately.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all surrounding communities,
mines and pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow
and Mardie, including Onslow and Mardie are advised that wind dangers have
passed and people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.6 degrees South 112.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 958 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 8:48 pm WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Onslow
to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Mardie to Onslow has been cancelled.
At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
195 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
295 kilometres north northwest of Coral Bay and
moving west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move to the west southwest.
DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible for a period
between Onslow and Coral Bay overnight. Conditions should gradually ease during
Friday as the cyclone moves away from the coast.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are no longer expected
near Exmouth.
Heavy rain is possible in coastal parts between Karratha and Exmouth overnight.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong and squally winds are still possible between Whim Creek and Onslow.
Conditions should ease from the east during Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth including surrounding mines and pastoral
leases need to go to shelter immediately.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all surrounding communities,
mines and pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow
and Mardie, including Onslow and Mardie are advised that wind dangers have
passed and people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 20.6 degrees South 112.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 958 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 27/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.6S
Longitude: 112.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [247 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 21.8S 110.9E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 958
+24: 28/1200: 24.2S 109.0E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 961
+36: 29/0000: 26.8S 108.2E: 110 [210]: 055 [100]: 972
+48: 29/1200: 28.9S 109.1E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 985
+60: 30/0000: 30.0S 110.7E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 986
+72: 30/1200: 30.8S 112.4E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 986
REMARKS:
Since 0630 UTC VIS [CDO pattern] and IR images [embedded centre] have both
yielded DT's of 4.5 or 5.0. A time average of DT over the last 3 hours gives a
DT of 4.5 and this agrees with the MET/PAT T. The trend over the last 24 hours
is D. Recent microwave and radar imagery shows deep convection in 3 quadrants
but not wrapped completely around the system centre. Recent radar imagery also
shows the eye diameter has increased to about 60 km in diameter. SATCON at 08
UTC had an estimated intensity of 74 knots [1 minute wind].
CIMSS indicates 9.8 m/s of shear [at 27/1200UTC] over the system and this is
likely to be maintained. The system is likely to maintain its current intensity
over the next 24 hours and then weakening is expected as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences further increases in shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1302 UTC 27/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.6S
Longitude: 112.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [247 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 958 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 28/0000: 21.8S 110.9E: 050 [095]: 075 [140]: 958
+24: 28/1200: 24.2S 109.0E: 080 [150]: 070 [130]: 961
+36: 29/0000: 26.8S 108.2E: 110 [210]: 055 [100]: 972
+48: 29/1200: 28.9S 109.1E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 985
+60: 30/0000: 30.0S 110.7E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 986
+72: 30/1200: 30.8S 112.4E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 986
REMARKS:
Since 0630 UTC VIS [CDO pattern] and IR images [embedded centre] have both
yielded DT's of 4.5 or 5.0. A time average of DT over the last 3 hours gives a
DT of 4.5 and this agrees with the MET/PAT T. The trend over the last 24 hours
is D. Recent microwave and radar imagery shows deep convection in 3 quadrants
but not wrapped completely around the system centre. Recent radar imagery also
shows the eye diameter has increased to about 60 km in diameter. SATCON at 08
UTC had an estimated intensity of 74 knots [1 minute wind].
CIMSS indicates 9.8 m/s of shear [at 27/1200UTC] over the system and this is
likely to be maintained. The system is likely to maintain its current intensity
over the next 24 hours and then weakening is expected as the system moves over
cooler SSTs and experiences further increases in shear.
The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result
in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the
system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in
beneath the mid level trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Exmouth to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Exmouth has been cancelled.
At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
200 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and
255 kilometres northwest of Coral Bay and
moving southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a general southwest
direction. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible
for a period between Exmouth and Coral Bay. Conditions should gradually ease
during Friday morning as the cyclone moves away from the coast.
Heavy rain is possible in coastal parts between Karratha and Coral Bay.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong and squally winds are still possible between Whim Creek and Exmouth.
Conditions should ease from the east during Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth including surrounding mines and pastoral
leases need to go to shelter immediately.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all surrounding communities,
mines and pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow
and Mardie, including Onslow and Mardie are advised that wind dangers have
passed and people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.3 degrees South 112.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
Issued at 11:42 pm WST on Thursday 27 January 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Exmouth to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Onslow to Exmouth has been cancelled.
At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category 3 was estimated to be
200 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and
255 kilometres northwest of Coral Bay and
moving southwest at 23 kilometres per hour.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to move in a general southwest
direction. DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are possible
for a period between Exmouth and Coral Bay. Conditions should gradually ease
during Friday morning as the cyclone moves away from the coast.
Heavy rain is possible in coastal parts between Karratha and Coral Bay.
Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.
Strong and squally winds are still possible between Whim Creek and Exmouth.
Conditions should ease from the east during Friday.
Tides will be higher than normal between Exmouth and Onslow, but flooding of
low-lying coastal areas is not expected.
FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near Exmouth including surrounding mines and pastoral
leases need to go to shelter immediately.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Exmouth
and Coral Bay, including the town of Coral Bay and all surrounding communities,
mines and pastoral leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.
ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION: People in or near coastal communities between Onslow
and Mardie, including Onslow and Mardie are advised that wind dangers have
passed and people should proceed with caution.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 21.3 degrees South 112.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 28 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210
A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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