SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

[CrazyC83]

That recurve could be catastrophic if it hits Queensland.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC pulled the plug



WTPS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 160.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 160.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 160.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE COME DOWN TO 30 KNOTS. TC
09P IS COMPLETING ITS U-TURN WESTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND WBAR, WHICH INDICATE UNREALISTIC
POLEWARD TRACKS INTO THE BUILDING STR. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND WBAR. TC
09P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VWS IN
ADDITION TO COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH, AS EVIDENCED ON
PREVIOUS MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE AFTER TAU 60 AS UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MOISTER ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF CAIRNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1248UTC 25 JANUARY 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 1200 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal four south (19.4S)
longitude one hundred and sixty decimal zero east (160.0E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
NE/SE winds 30/35 knots within 120 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

Very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 26 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 19.2 south 158.8 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.
At 1200 UTC 26 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 18.9 south 157.3 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 25 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[Craiga74]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 2:59 am WST on Wednesday 26 January 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Bidyadanga
to Coral Bay.
The Cyclone WARNING from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga including Broome has been
cancelled.

At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
155 kilometres west of Broome and
360 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland and
moving southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca is developing as it moves to the southwest over open
waters west of Broome. The cyclone is expected to intensify further as it moves
steadily parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Thursday.

Gales are no longer expected on the coast between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga
however gales are possible for a period between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland
this morning extending to Karratha tonight and then to Coral Bay on Thursday.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland,
extending west later today and on Thursday. Localised stream rises are likely
but widespread flooding is not expected.

FESA State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal and island communities between Cape Leveque and
Karratha including the communities of Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Beagle Bay,
Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire Roadhouse, Wallal, Pardoo, De Grey, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Dampier and
Karratha need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Communities between Karratha and Coral Bay should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Bianca at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 120.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 6:00 am WST Wednesday 26 January.

[Craiga74]

Sorry guys....getting excited and posted in the wrong thread lol

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1848UTC 25 JANUARY 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 1800 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal two south (19.2S)
longitude one hundred and fifty nine decimal six east (159.6E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
NE/SE winds 30/35 knots within 120 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

Very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 26 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.1 south 158.2 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.
At 1800 UTC 26 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 18.5 south 156.1 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 212.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 26 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[Macrocane]

Craiga74, the map you posted is for Bianca not Anthony

[Crostorm]

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0731UTC 26 JANUARY 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 0600 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and fifty eight decimal five east (158.5E)
Recent movement : west at 10 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

FORECAST
NE/SE winds 30/35 knots within 150 nautical miles in the southern semicircle.

Very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 26 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.4 south 156.8 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.
At 0600 UTC 27 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 17.8 south 154.6 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 26 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony is situated over the eastern Coral Sea and is slow
moving. It is likely to move west-northwest over the next few days. Likelihood
of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony redeveloping into a cyclone in the Eastern Region
on:

Thursday: Moderate
Friday: High
Saturday: High

[HURAKAN]

bursting

[Macrocane]

It's doing a good job surviving, outflow and inflow are still very restricted but if the models are right in a couple of days it should be a strengthening tropical cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1334UTC 26 JANUARY 2011

CORRECTED GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 1200 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal six south (18.6S)
longitude one hundred and fifty eight decimal zero east (158.0E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony may redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the
next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 210 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
NE/SE winds 34/40 knots within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 210
nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swells.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 27 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 18.1 south 155.8 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.
At 1200 UTC 27 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 17.1 south 154.3 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 26 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED TED NEAR 19.2S
159.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 159.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. THIS AREA IS THE REMNANTS OF TC
09P (ANTHONY). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251904Z
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH ISOLATED,
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN
CREATING HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KNOTS). CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AROUND 28 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE
AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES REGENERATION AFTER 24-36 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARD AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

consensus ... bad news for the flood-ravaged areas

[HURAKAN]

convection increasing

[HURAKAN]

and poof! But convection should make a comeback in the morning during Diurnal Maximum

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 262000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 158.1E TO 16.9S 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 157.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
09P (ANTHONY) HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S
157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL (U/L) RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO REPLACE A FILLING U/L SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE TC BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER AS UL CONDITIONS IMPROVE, BUT IT IS FAIRLY RECENT,
WEAK AND UNORGANIZED. NONETHELESS A 261133Z ASCAT SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THE COLUMN BEGINNING TO RE-MOISTEN AS FLOW WORKS ITS
WAY FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272000Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1858UTC 26 JANUARY 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 1800 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal eight south (18.8S)
longitude one hundred and fifty six decimal seven east (156.7E)
Recent movement : west at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony may redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the
next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 210 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
NE/SE winds 34/40 knots within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 210
nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swells.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 27 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 18.0 south 154.9 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.
At 1800 UTC 27 January: Within 105 nautical miles of 17.0 south 153.6 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station burrum 212.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 27 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0056UTC 27 JANUARY 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 0000 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal eight south (17.8S)
longitude one hundred and fifty five decimal six east (155.6E)
Recent movement : west northwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 999 hPa

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Anthony may redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the
next 12 to 24 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 180 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
NE/SE winds 34/40 knots within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant and within 180
nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate to heavy swells.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 27 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.8 south 154.1 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots in the southern semicircle.
At 0000 UTC 28 January: Within 105 nautical miles of 15.8 south 153.0 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241
through Land Earth Station Burrum 212.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 27 January 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE