SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 28, 2011 4:51 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 28/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 154.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/0600: 16.3S 153.6E: 070 [130]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 29/1800: 17.5S 152.1E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 30/0600: 18.9S 149.6E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 982
+48: 30/1800: 19.8S 147.2E: 100 [185]: 055 [100]: 980
+60: 31/0600: 20.5S 144.8E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 998
+72: 31/1800: 20.8S 141.7E: 120 [220]: 020 [035]: 1005
REMARKS:
Low DT implied by small curved band, but FT and CI held up due to constraints.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#82 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:45 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:20am EST on Saturday the 29th of January 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Innisfail to Saint
Lawrence.

At 10:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category 1 was estimated to be
940 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 850 kilometres northeast of
Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently slow moving. Anthony is expected to turn
to the southwest today and is forecast to insensify slightly as it approaches
the Queensland coast.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Innisfail and St Lawrence late on Sunday.

People between Innisfail and St Lawrence should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anthony at 10:00 am EST:

.Centre located near...... 15.5 degrees South 154.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... slow moving
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Saturday 29 January.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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#83 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:46 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0041 UTC 29/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 154.7E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [321 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Shallow
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/1200: 16.3S 153.3E: 070 [130]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 30/0000: 17.7S 151.3E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 30/1200: 18.9S 148.6E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 991
+48: 31/0000: 19.8S 146.4E: 100 [185]: 035 [065]: 995
+60: 31/1200: 20.2S 143.6E: 110 [205]: 025 [045]: 1002
+72: 01/0000: 20.5S 140.6E: 120 [220]: 020 [035]: 1005
REMARKS:
DT hard to define with a lack of convection. FT based on MET with CI held at 3.0
due constraints.

The systems has struggled to develop convection against the diurnal maximum
overnight, most likely due to a dry surrounding atmosphere and lack of upper
divergence.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:46 pm

Image

not looking too good
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#85 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jan 29, 2011 11:22 am

AXAU21 ABRF 290939
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0938 UTC 29/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0900 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 153.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 29/2100: 16.9S 151.8E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 992
+24: 30/0900: 18.2S 149.2E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 988
+36: 30/2100: 19.4S 146.6E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 31/0900: 20.0S 144.3E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1003
+60: 31/2100: 20.5S 142.1E: 190 [350]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 01/0900: 21.0S 139.9E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
Convection developing in the southern half against the diurnal minimum though
cloud top temperatures remain relatively warm.

FT based on DT with shear displacement of <0.5 degrees from deep convection. MET
and PAT agree.

The systems is starting to move to the south and is forecast to turn southwest
in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#86 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:37 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:49am EST on Sunday the 30th of January 2011

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Lucinda to
Proserpine.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal and island communities from Innisfail to
Lucinda and Proserpine to Saint Lawrence.

At 4:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category 1 was estimated to be
600 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 510 kilometres northeast of
Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently moving southwest and is expected to
continue moving in this direction. It may slightly intensify as it approaches
the Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island
communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast early Monday
morning.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Lucinda and Proserpine late today.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast abnormally high tides are expected
between Townsville and Bowen. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCAL FLOODING is expected to develop about the coast and
adjacent inland near and to the south of the cyclone, extending as far south as
Sarina, as it approaches and crosses the coast overnight Sunday.

People between Lucinda and Proserpine should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

People in remaining areas between Innisfail and St Lawrence, and adjacent inland
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anthony at 4:00 am EST:

.Centre located near...... 17.1 degrees South 152.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Sunday 30 January.
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#87 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 2:37 pm

Image

Latest
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#88 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 4:07 pm

Image

struggling Anthony
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#89 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 4:29 pm

29/2032 UTC 17.4S 152.2E T2.0/2.0 ANTHONY -- Southwest Pacific

30 knots
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#90 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jan 29, 2011 4:55 pm

WTPS22 PGTW 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S 153.2E TO 20.5S 145.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 292130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 152.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
09P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 153.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S
152.6E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY FROM WILLIS ISLAND
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WELL-DEFINED
CENTER; THE LLCC RECENTLY TRACKED OVER LIHOU REEF, WHICH REPORTED
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AS HIGH AS 27 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 988
MB AT 29/19Z. A 291448Z AMSR-E INDICATES A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH
IMPROVED AND TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT DEEP MOISTURE
VALUES ARE INCREASING AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND MAINTAINS
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH VALUES THAT ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED, ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER-LOW NEAR 27S 164E AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER-LOW NEAR 20S
143E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 988 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302200Z.//
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Re: SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

#91 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:29 pm

Image

Image

Looking better
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Re: SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

#92 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:30 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 7:57am EST on Sunday the 30th of January 2011

The Cyclone WARNING has been extended to coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to Proserpine.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities between Innisfail and
Lucinda and Proserpine to St Lawrence has been CANCELLED.

At 7:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category 1 was estimated to be
530 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 445 kilometres northeast of
Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently moving southwest and is expected to
continue moving in this direction. It may intensify as it approaches the
Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island
communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast late tonight.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cardwell and Proserpine late today.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast abnormally high tides are expected
between Townsville and Bowen. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

HEAVY RAINFALL with LOCAL FLOODING is expected to develop about the coast and
adjacent inland near and to the south of the cyclone, extending as far south as
Sarina, as it approaches and crosses the coast overnight Sunday.

People between Cardwell and Proserpine should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Anthony at 7:00 am EST:

.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 151.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Sunday 30 January.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

#93 Postby Rod Hagen » Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:01 pm

THe latest BOM track path:
Image

Latest technical Bulletin:
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0042 UTC 30/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 150.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [225 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [27 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1200: 19.6S 148.2E: 060 [110]: 050 [095]: 984
+24: 31/0000: 20.8S 145.4E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 999
+36: 31/1200: 22.5S 143.0E: 120 [225]: 025 [045]: 1000
+48: 01/0000: 24.5S 141.8E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 999
+60: 01/1200: 25.4S 141.3E: 200 [375]: 025 [045]: 998
+72: 02/0000: 26.8S 140.3E: 250 [465]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
Convection more organised with DT based on curved band of 0.6 on VIS imagery.
MET and PAT agree.

Gale force wind observations at Hamilton Island are evidence of a large SW gale
radius.

Models continue to maintain a consistent southwestward movement towards the
Queensland coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#94 Postby Rod Hagen » Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:06 pm

Latest JTWC warning:

WTPS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.6S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 150.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT TC 09P HAS REGENERATED. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291956Z CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT, ORGANIZED LLCC WITH A PROMINENT
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED, ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 29S 167E AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER-LOW NEAR
20S 143E. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION REEF, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SHOWING SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 36
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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#95 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 29, 2011 10:23 pm

Image

Looking good
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#96 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 1:03 am

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closer to the coast
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#97 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 1:03 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:44pm EST on Sunday the 30th of January 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to Sarina.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Anthony, Category 2 was estimated to be
360 kilometres east of Townsville and 245 kilometres east northeast of Bowen.

Tropical Cyclone Anthony is currently moving southwest and is expected to
continue moving in this direction. It is slowly intensifying as it approaches
the Queensland coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about coastal and island
communities close to the cyclone centre as it approaches the coast late tonight.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are expected to develop about island communities this
afternoon and over coastal parts between Cardwell and Sarina this evening and
continuing overnight.

As the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast abnormally high tides are
expected between Townsville and Bowen. Large waves are likely along the
beachfront between Townsville and Sarina.

HEAVY RAINFALL with FLOODING is expected to develop about the coast and adjacent
inland near and to the south of the cyclone, extending as far south as Sarina,
overnight and continuing on Monday.

People between Cardwell and Sarina should complete preparations quickly and be
prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anthony at 1:00 pm EST:

.Centre located near...... 18.8 degrees South 150.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 33 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Sunday 30 January.


This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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HURAKAN
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#98 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 1:04 am

Image

Latest track
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Rod Hagen
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Re: SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

#99 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Jan 30, 2011 3:34 am

Now coming closer to the shore:

Image

The obs for Hamilton Island - a little south of the track, can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4368.shtml

Bowen, closer to the centre, only gives 3 hourly readings - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801 ... 4366.shtml

Bowen radar loops can be found at http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR243.loop.shtml#skip

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml gives the general Australian BOM cyclone information access
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Rod Hagen
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Re: SPAC: ANTHONY (11U/09P) - Tropical Cyclone

#100 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:14 am

The eye can now clearly be seen on Bowen radar as it comes ashore just east of Bowen - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR243.loop.shtml



(see the loop for a better picture)

Image
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