SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Crostorm]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/0841 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
172.9E AT 290600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS, IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Crostorm]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 29/0841 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
172.9E AT 290600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29
DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS, IN MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT WESTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/1400 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
171.9E AT 291200 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLIES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 292030 UTC.

[CrazyC83]

Australia/South Pacific sure has been remarkably active so far! Considering it is early in their season (it would be like July in the Atlantic), also it seems their active seasons tend to follow the same pattern as the Atlantic.

[senorpepr]

TXPS26 KNES 291606


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90P)

B. 29/1432Z

C. 13.8S

D. 171.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITH DT=2.0 BASED ON 3/10 BANDING AND
PAT ALSO 2.0 HOWEVER KEEPING SYSTEM ON MET WHICH IS 1.5. FT BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1019Z 13.9S 171.8E AMSU


...SWANSON

[Chacor]

WTPS21 PGTW 291700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 173.2E TO 15.4S 166.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED
A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301700Z.//

[Macrocane]

Australia/South Pacific sure has been remarkably active so far! Considering it is early in their season (it would be like July in the Atlantic), also it seems their active seasons tend to follow the same pattern as the Atlantic.

I think that January is more like August, but it has been prety active there's no doubt about it

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... looking good

[KWT]

Yeah its more like late August for them at the moment, interestingly the first sorta 45 days of the season was pretty slow, its only been in the last 10-14 days which has seen the basin come to life...

As you say Crazy, thats rather similar to what the Atlantic did in 2010...

[HURAKAN]

really nice visible image

[HURAKAN]

consensus ... another system to affect Australia

[senorpepr]

WTPS11 NFFN 291800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/2022 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
171.3E AT 291800 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLIES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 300230 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
No other significant lows are expected to develop or move into the region during
the next two days. A low currently northwest of Fiji is forecast to develop into
a tropical cyclone and move west into the region on Tuesday. Likelihood of a new
tropical cyclone occurring in the Eastern Region on:

Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: High

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[Macrocane]

It is looking pretty good, it has a well established outflow and the banding structure is great, I think that the JTWC is going to issue the first warning in the next few hours and Nadi may name it pretty soon as well.

[HURAKAN]

29/2032 UTC 13.2S 171.1E T1.5/1.5 90P -- Southwest Pacific

no change

[HURAKAN]

Should be a tropical cyclone very soon

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list: "Yasi"

[Rod Hagen]

Yes, it is already been unofficially called "Yasi" in anticipation in Australia, Bill. We are not looking forward to the potential of this one arriving in areas that have already been the subject of very serious flooding in the last few weeks.