SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 300000 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0236 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 170.1E
AT 300000 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 3 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT
IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF LLCC.
PRIMARY BAND TO THE NORTH TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY AN EASTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED OF 0.50 WRAP YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. DT =2.5, PT=2.5 AND MET=2.5.

GLOBAL MODELS FURTHER DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 300730 UTC.

[Chacor]

JTWC upgrades to 11P, calling for Cat 4 landfall >110 kt between 96 and 120 hours.

WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291651Z JAN 11//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.2S 170.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 170.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.4S 165.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.4S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.1S 158.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.3S 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 169.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS UNAVAILABLE, HOWEVER, A
291814Z CORIOLIS 36H IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTED THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
DEPICTED MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. A 292139Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 30-35 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE AS WELL AS THE CORRESPONDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND PHFO. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC
11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WILL SHIFT EAST AND RE-
ORIENT AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THEREFORE THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK. THE ECMWF TRACKER IS UNAVAILABLE BUT THE 29/12Z MODEL FIELDS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED LARGELY ON THE CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND,
TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH
TAU 72 AND AT A SLOWER RATE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PEAK HIGHER THAN 110 KNOTS AND MAKE
LANDFALL AS A VERY STRONG, LARGE SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 291651Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 291700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

Yasi

[HURAKAN]

GALE WARNING 086 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 30/0457 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4
SOUTH 169.9 EAST AT 300300 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 169.9E at 300300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 301500 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.3S 167.7E AT 301500 UTC
AND NEAR 13.3S 165.2E AT 310300 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 085.

[HURAKAN]

consensus keeps pointing towards Australia

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks for pointing out that text Chacor

[RobWESTPACWX]

New Storm, new video update.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kGwwoGQJvg[/youtube]

[senorpepr]

WTPS01 NFFN 301200
STORM WARNING 088 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 30/1312 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9
SOUTH 167.7 EAST AT 301200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.9S 167.7E AT 301200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 310000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 14.5S 165.0E AT 310000 UTC
AND NEAR 14.6S 161.8E AT 311200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 087.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 301200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1342 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CATEGORY 1 CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
167.7E AT 301200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS BY 310000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

OVERRALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION INCREASED PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS INDICATE DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST
PATH. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30C. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
WESTWARDS BY AN EASTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ASSESSMENT
BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. DT = 3.0, MET = 3.0
AND PT = 3.0.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING TC YASI FURTHER AND MAINTAINING A
WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC 14.5S 165.0E MOV WSW AT 12 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC 14.6S 161.8E MOV W AT 15 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 15.2S 158.4E MOV W AT 16 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 16.2S 155.1E MOV WSW AT 16 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 302000 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Chacor]

No real change to the JTWC's track forecast on warning #2; intensity forecast lowered very slightly.

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (YASI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 167.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 167.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.5S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.3S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.9S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 166.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (YASI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1280 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND WRAP MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS RADIAL OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 301011Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, NFFN, AND PGTW.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 THEN TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU
60. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

How bad is the flood situation right now? If it takes that course with the size it has now, it could be catastrophic...

[KWT]

Going to need very close watching, systems close to Australia thus far have generally suffered this season but the models suggest this maybe one of those classic strong landfalling systems...

[CrazyC83]

Going to need very close watching, systems close to Australia thus far have generally suffered this season but the models suggest this maybe one of those classic strong landfalling systems...

I think the size matters more than the strength...a drenching rainmaker would be the worst case in my opinion.

[KWT]

Of course but if your going to get a system thats a cat-4/5 making landfall clearly the winds are almost as big as a concern as the flooding...and no reason to think this one won't be a 4/5 some point in its life cycle...

[HURAKAN]

WOW, impressive intensification in the last 24 hours. Looks like we have a cyclone with hurricane intensity right now

[CrazyC83]

The eye feature is quite interesting but still looks quite disorganized on satellite. I would estimate 55 kt for its intensity right now.

[KWT]

Not sure Crazy, thats a pretty solid looking closed eyewall there, wouldn't be surprised to see it closer to 65kts myself right now, maybe a value like 60kts is the best call right now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest