SPAC: YASI (14U /11P) - Severe Tropical Cyclone

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Rod Hagen
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#61 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Jan 30, 2011 4:57 pm

I think the size matters more than the strength...a drenching rainmaker would be the worst case in my opinion.


Another huge related issue will be just how far north it strikes. If it is up around Cairns (as suggested by the JTWC track projection) it will be bad enough, but if it brings a lot of rain to the Fitzroy River catchment areas further to the south behind already flooded Rockhampton (as the Euro model suggests it might) then it will be a lot worse. The further south it ends up the more densely populated the coastal strip is too, of course. It certainly looks big enough to do a heck of a lot of damage wherever it lands , but north is better than south, barring perhaps a direct hit on a city like Cairns.

I guess the speed that the high pressure system north and north west of NZ travels at will have some bearing on this?
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#62 Postby KWT » Sun Jan 30, 2011 5:18 pm

Yeah thats a good point Rod, hopefully if it is going to make landfall (seems highly likely now!) then it can hit a sparsly populated region.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#63 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:14 pm

Unfortunately if anything the suggested tracks seem to be moving further south.
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#64 Postby Rod Hagen » Sun Jan 30, 2011 6:43 pm

THis image (from http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDX1299.shtml) from the BOM provides a good idea of just how large the total Yasi system is when compared to Australia:

Image
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#65 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 7:04 pm

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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:40 pm

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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#67 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:41 pm

Video for today has been posted, I made to note storm2k here as well!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPhB6C_y1sk&feature=feedu[/youtube]
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#68 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:41 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0228 UTC 31/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.6S
Longitude: 164.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1200: 13.9S 160.5E: 060 [110]: 070 [130]: 973
+24: 01/0000: 14.6S 157.2E: 090 [165]: 080 [150]: 965
+36: 01/1200: 15.6S 154.0E: 120 [225]: 085 [155]: 961
+48: 02/0000: 16.9S 151.0E: 155 [285]: 095 [175]: 951
+60: 02/1200: 18.0S 148.1E: 200 [375]: 100 [185]: 942
+72: 03/0000: 19.3S 145.3E: 250 [465]: 060 [110]: 977
REMARKS:
Curved band 0.7 on MTSAT VIS at 2330UTC gives a DT of 3.5. Outflow increasing
further to north and system is showing better organisation with persistent deep
convection near its centre. TC is expected to enter a favourable environment for
intensification and ridge to south is expected to steer it towards the west
southwest rapidly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:19 pm

31/0232 UTC 13.6S 163.4E T4.5/4.5 YASI -- Southwest Pacific

75 knots
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#70 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:20 pm

Image

latest visible
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:21 pm

Image

90W, ex-Anthony and Yasi
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#72 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:16 pm

Image

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:52pm EST on Monday the 31st of January 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Cooktown to Yeppoon.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 2 was estimated to be
1880 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1730 kilometres east northeast
of Mackay moving west at 30 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves west over the Coral Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning.

People between Cooktown and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 163.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 150 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Monday 31 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#73 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:17 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0334 UTC 31/01/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0300 UTC
Latitude: 13.6S
Longitude: 163.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 10 nm [20 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1500: 13.8S 159.9E: 060 [110]: 075 [135]: 970
+24: 01/0300: 14.7S 156.6E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 962
+36: 01/1500: 15.7S 153.3E: 120 [225]: 090 [165]: 958
+48: 02/0300: 17.1S 150.3E: 155 [285]: 100 [180]: 948
+60: 02/1500: 18.3S 147.5E: 200 [375]: 100 [185]: 942
+72: 03/0300: 19.5S 144.8E: 250 [465]: :
REMARKS:
Curved band 1.1 on MTSAT VIS at 0230UTC gives a DT of 4.0. Outflow increasing
further to north and starting to now increase to the south. System is showing
increased organisation with persistent deep convection near its centre. TC is
entering a favourable environment for intensification and ridge to south is
expected to steer it rapidly towards the west southwest.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#74 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:24 pm

About time the BOM put a warning out on this..... not knocking them I know it is far away from them, but the track seems pretty certain at this time.
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#75 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:16 am

Image

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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#76 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:19 am

Another shot showing relative sizes. Will Yasi be the storm that ate Australia?

Image
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#77 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:31 am

Great shot Weather Guesser, I am going to use that one in my video this evening. It really does get the point across about the size of this storm.
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Re: SPAC: YASI (09F/11P) - Tropical Cyclone

#78 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:32 am

Max winds increased yet again

Image
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#79 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:39 am

It's from Google Earth using their weather overlays.

There are also .KML files available with track and position plots.
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#80 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:30 am

882
AXAU21 ABRF 310657
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0656 UTC 31/01/2011
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 162.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [263 deg]
Speed of Movement: 17 knots [31 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 175 nm [325 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 31/1800: 13.9S 158.8E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 957
+24: 01/0600: 15.0S 155.6E: 080 [150]: 095 [175]: 947
+36: 01/1800: 16.0S 152.3E: 110 [210]: 095 [175]: 945
+48: 02/0600: 17.2S 149.2E: 145 [270]: 100 [185]: 939
+60: 02/1800: 18.6S 146.4E: 190 [355]: 105 [195]: 926
+72: 03/0600: 20.0S 143.6E: 240 [445]: 050 [095]: 982
REMARKS:
Curved band 1.45 on MTSAT VIS at 0530UTC gives a DT of 4.5. Outflow increasing
further to north and starting to now increase to the south. System is showing
increased organisation with persistent deep convection near its centre. TC is
entering a favourable environment for intensification and ridge to south is
expected to steer it rapidly towards the west southwest.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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